DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

Cameron Smotherman by KO/TKO or DEC
Smotherman is a much more comfortable and powerful striker than his opponent who is not bad anywhere but doesn't really excel in any aspect of MMA either. Cameron has been susceptible to being taken and held down in the past but his takedown defense has looked progressively better and his opponent while a competent wrestler does not have the conditioning or top pressure imo to take down and hold down Smotherman repeatedly. Cameron is well conditioned, powerful, and a reasonably safe play imo.

Hyder Amil by KO/TKO or DEC
Amil is a striker that puts relentless pressure on his opponents until he makes them fold. The difference between Amil and other pressure/pace fighters is that he favors power over pace. He puts a lot into every single shot and while that does fatigue him as early as the end of the first round he has shown an ability to fight through fatigue and win all three rounds. His opponent Emrah Sonmez is a decent wrestler but he does tend to fatigue and is often outwrestled and controlled by better grapplers.While Sonmez did look career best imo in his last fight I don't think his wrestling is good enough to take down or keep down Amil and he is probably going to get knocked out. Reasonably safe play imo.

Also, Abdul-Kareem Al-Sewady is a good underdog, that I would take at anything over +150. His opponent George Hardwick is a good striker, great body puncher, with relentless pressure and is deceptively powerful. Al-Sewady is not a great striker but he is powerful and appears to have a significant grappling advantage over Hardwick. Hardwick has not fought a wrestler as agressive as Al-Sewady in a long time and I think Al-Sewady is going to be a bit too physical for him. Al-Sewady is short but built like a tank. He reminds me a lot of Rafa Garcia.
 
Tuesday, August 15, 2023
DWCS Week 2:

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/100992-contender-series-2023-week-2
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73740
https://fightodds.io/mma-events/4722/contender-series-2023-week-2/odds
https://www.betmma.tips/free_ufc_betting_tips.php?Event=1322

My leans are the same people who are leading the Tapology poll, just like week 1 lol

Leans: Hardwick, Moura, Amil, Asian, Smotherman

Hardwick ...
2 inches taller
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/mma-champ-nicknamed-body-snatcher-27010063

Muay thai was the earliest beginning for George, who was soon thereafter coached by a veteran fighter of 250 bouts. He built some striking abilities and found some success, but his passion skyrocketed when he picked up a copy of the UFC Undisputed 2009 video game. That’s when he moved to MMA. His first amateur fight took place at age 16 and before long he was 5-1 at that level. Before he turned professional, Hardwick faced a two-year layoff due to injuries and folliculitis decalvans, a rare skin condition he describes as his scalp “falling off.” In a similarly unusual fashion to what sparked his amateur career, Hardwick’s decision to return and go pro stemmed from a viewing of “John Wick 2.” His resume speaks for itself. He became a staple of Cage Warriors before capturing and defending the promotion’s lightweight title.

“I’ve always had a tendency toward body shots because I started in muay Thai. Muay Thai has a real scoring system leaning toward body shots, especially body kicks. When you fight junior rules in muay Thai, there are no headshots. There are just kicks and knees to the body, punches to the body. So I’ve had it drilled in from a young age. Also, it’s just hard to defend your body. Four-ounce gloves, people think they get the knockout really easy to the head, but it’s hard to defend the body. Those knuckles pierce through to the ribs really easily. It can fit through the guard really easily. Also, fighters do these really hard weight cuts. … The stomaches can be queasy come fight time, so digging toes or a good left hook into the body, it has that effect on it........... The UFC is the goal by the end of 2023, but I just want to be in active competition – active, active, active. I do it for the purity of martial arts. I’ve had this realization before. Sometimes when the fight comes hard and you’re dieting and you’re cutting weight, until the fight is done, you don’t have that relaxation. But the relaxation isn’t as relaxing as you thought. The most enjoyable part is being in this fight-ready shape, developing toward a fight. Because you’re only going to be at this peak performance for however many years and then this is going to be the thing that I missed when I’m retired, when I’m 40 or 50 or whatever. So I’m just enjoying every single pad session, everything, every single wrestling session, every single spar and just expressing my body in that way: that honest physical expression, as Bruce Lee would say.”

Moura ...
3.14961 inch reach advantage, 5 inches taller in height
https://www.instagram.com/eduarda.rondamma/
Moura made her professional MMA debut in March 2022. The Brazilian quickly became a prospect to watch after securing four first-round finishes, two by KO/TKO and two by submission. In September 2022, ‘Ronda’ had a close when she defeated Aline Sattelmayer (12-17) by split decision for the Demo Fight vacant flyweight championship. After taking out Sattelmayer, Eduarda Moura won two more fights with a first-round finish to extend her 2022 record to 7-0. She last fought on March 25 in the strawweight division for the first time, defeating Claudia Alves with a second-round TKO for the Demo Fight vacant strawweight championship. Has professional MMA record of 8-0.


Hyder Amil ...
https://mmauk.net/2023/06/30/becoming-hyder-amil-an-extraordinary-story-of-fighting-family-and-fate/
2 inches shorter
https://www.diamondmma.com/blogs/news/why-i-fight-hyder-amil

Ibo Asian ...
3 inches taller
11 wins, all by knockout


Cameron Smotherman ...
2 inches taller
training with Adrian Yanez & Raufeon Stots
eats what he wants & still makes 135
age 25



https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...de-of-palestine-al-selwady-vs-george-hardwick
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...a-ronda-moura-vs-janaina-jana-popozinha-silva
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...hurricane-amil-vs-emrah-anatolian-wolf-sonmez
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...paulo-renato-jr-vs-ibo-the-last-ottoman-aslan
https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...herman-vs-charalampos-the-ferocious-grigoriou
 
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Personally leaning strongly on Sonmez. I genuinely don't think Hyder is very good. He's constantly in trouble against lower tier guys. His hardest opponent yet was in his last fight against a meh DWCS vet, and he nearly got finished after getting dominated on the ground. Sonmez is a tenacious grappler who's very strong (love a guy not afraid to suplex), and Hyder's all-around averageness won't be enough to stop that.

Not really high on either Smotherman or Grigoriou. Both powerful strikers, but I don't find either as technical as I expected to see. Grigoriou's kinda a can crusher and lost against the only 2 halfway decent guys he's fought. Smotherman's still young and he's been incredibly active with 11 pro fights in 2 years. I think he probably wins, but I wouldn't bet the house here.

Think Hardwick probably wins, but this line is way too wide. Al-Selwady is a good fighter, though his confidence in his striking is better than his skills in it. Good, strong grappler, but Hardwick's got good TDD. Hardwick doesn't have the best striking defense though, and likes to block a lot with his face. I think Hardwick breaks him down on the feet as he tends to, but Al-Selwady can definitely pop him or break through his TDD.
 
Personally leaning strongly on Sonmez. I genuinely don't think Hyder is very good. He's constantly in trouble against lower tier guys. His hardest opponent yet was in his last fight against a meh DWCS vet, and he nearly got finished after getting dominated on the ground. Sonmez is a tenacious grappler who's very strong (love a guy not afraid to suplex), and Hyder's all-around averageness won't be enough to stop that.

Emrah lost two of his last three fights in Cage Warriors by being out grappled. His grappling only seems to work against opponents with no grappling. Amil is primarily a striker but his defensive grappling is very good; he escaped a locked in standing RNC in his last fight that most people would have quickly tapped too.

Unless age has gotten to Amil, which is possible since he is 33 and has not fought in over a year, I don't see how he loses this fight.
 
Emrah lost two of his last three fights in Cage Warriors by being out grappled. His grappling only seems to work against opponents with no grappling. Amil is primarily a striker but his defensive grappling is very good; he escaped a locked in standing RNC in his last fight that most people would have quickly tapped too.

Unless age has gotten to Amil, which is possible since he is 33 and has not fought in over a year, I don't see how he loses this fight.

Eh there's only one where he definitely got outgrappled in. Against Gittins, Sonmez wrestled him down in the first, and just kinda beat himself out in the 2nd and got caught. He also broke down 2 solid grapplers in his last 3 fights, twice against a bjj guy.

I think Hyder's defensive grappling is okay, but I don't think it's even as good as the last guy Sonmez beat. Sonmez is going to be persistent with the clinches and takedowns, and I don't think Hyder's at the level to hold up against that.
 
Aslan-Renato is a really tough call. Both have faced questionable competition. Renato might be the better technical kickboxer but Aslan hits harder. Think I'm on Aslan just for how hard he throws leg kicks, but the under might be the safe play.

WMMA fight a little tough to judge with how little footage Moura actually has. Silva's undersized, but knows how to get inside and hits hard. Moura seems to be grappling-first and Silva kind of avoids playing there in general. Think Moura's the right pick, but she could get caught trying to close in for takedowns. Not enough footage to see how good her striking defense is though, or how she handles something that doesn't come easy for her.
 
Been a bit quiet on these forums recently. Ep 1 only played Almeida as the dog.

Here I was leaning Grigoriou at 2.70. Something stopped me and now the line has closed up.

Aslan seems the more natural LHW, both can crushers.

I lean Amil. Missed the better line. Sonmez has quit in him and his grappling is not dangerous at all + not very physical.

Moura / Silva lack of tape.

I lean Hardwick to get a KO at some point, even though there is value on Al-Selawy. Taped 5+ fights he does seem to have issues with his defence if not even his durability. He can give George a fight up to a certain point though.
 
Softer and shorter


Aslan-vs-Renato-Jr.-dwcs-58-faceoff.jpg


Moura-vs-Silva-dwcs-58-faceoff.jpg
 
Smotherman-180 for 100
Silva+140 for 100
Amil-180 for 100
Renato JR+105 for 100
Hardwich and the Under 2.5-115 for 100
 
Might be no-playing this tonight. Didn't have time to tape. Contrary to belief, I can enjoy fights without gambling on them.
 
Hardwick under $100 -105
Renato $75 +105
Sonmez $50 +160
Janaina $25 +140
Charalampos $25 +130
 
Looks like i'll be getting live odds for this card.
 
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