DWCS, Tuesday, Dana White Contender Series betting thread, MMA

The odds on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady by SUB (+2800) are crazy. He goes for submissions all the time.
 
Damn Smotherman lost me a clean sweep and a decent multi. Still made a good profit this card I seem to do much better betting on contender than actual UFC events.
 
Josefine Knutsson by SUB or DEC
Knutsson is an accomplished kickboxer who was P4P ranked before retiring to pursue a career in MMA. She is fighting a less accomplished former kickboxer, Isis Verbeek, whose striking style imo translates better to MMA; not that it should matter in this fight. Knutsson is not a great grappler but she is capable of taking down opponents which will be a clear path to victory for her because Verbeek's takedown-defense is non-existent as is her getup game. Verbeek has been taken down by every single opponent she has ever fought and held down by most of them as well. Knutsson has fought significantly better competition and is most likely going to SUB Verbeek. Very safe play.

Felipe Dos Santos by KO/TKO or DEC
Felipe Dos Santos is your typical well-rounded Chute Boxe fighter. He is a high level striker who does a great job mixing in knees and elbows to complement his kickboxing game. His opponent Luciano Pereira is a relatively basic striker with a good blast double leg but is easily held down once taken down. The first thing you will notice about Pereira when watching him is that he is very short. This does not mean he is not dangerous because arguably his only redeeming quality as a fighter is that he is extremely powerful due to how he is able to explode into his punches. Against most opponents this would be enough but Felipe Dos Santos arguably has the edge everywhere, other than raw power, and is durable enough to take whatever Pereira has to offer and should finish him late or win by decision. Moderately safe play.

Kaik Brito by KO/TKO or DEC
Kaik Brito is an athletic and powerful striker with knockout power in both hands having knocked down his last opponent six times (three times with each hand). He has few weak areas and a lot of high level experience. His last two losses were both arguably robberies but those losses did display the weakest area of Brito's MMA game which is that opponents are able to hold him down late in fights. Brito has good takedown defense and a good getup game but only while he is fresh. His opponent Oban Elliot is a well conditioned wrestleboxer who fits a similar mold to the last two opponents to defeat Brito. Elliot does not have any weak areas and is a solid fighter everywhere though he does not do anything particularly well nor is he particularly dangerous anywhere which I believe will be his downfall in this fight. Elliot allows opponents to pressure him far too much and while he is comfortable striking off the backfoot and moves well laterally this is likely to eventually get him caught against Brito who is at his best when pushing forward. Elliot's wrestling is not good enough to takedown or keep down Brito for at least the first two rounds and I don't believe he will do enough damage to win either of the first two rounds while Brito is fresh. Moderately safe play
 
Think I'm on all the favorites on initial review.

Thought I'd be on Aronov for his strong grappling background, but the little tape I could find on him leaves me pretty unimpressed. Reese hasn't fought the best comp, but he's run through people and looks very technically sound doing so. I think he's legit. Interestingly enough has an 11 year-old amateur loss to Kevin Holland when he was barely 18.

Ring has fought absolute cans but actually looks pretty solid. Despite being a clearly BJJ-heavy guy he's not lost in the standup. Pajuelo gives me the impression of a pretty average boxer who uses toughness as an asset. He's shown okay grappling defense but I don't know if he'll survive Ring's constant sub-hunting.

Having trouble finding tape on Pereira but I like what I see from Dos Santos. Really solid striker. Pereira's got a super padded record too. But Pereira definitely has power and there's some unknowns here, so I'm not sure if the juice on Dos Santos is worth it and I might take a stab at the dog.

Brito's really fun to watch and probably the pfp most powerful on this card. Wouldn't call him the technically most amazing, but he's still good at picking his shots and brings speed with his power. Elliot should have the grappling advantage, but Brito will be the stronger guy and uses his usually-superior strength both in TDD and his getups. Elliott's striking is decent but just seems alright to me, and I'd be surprised if Brito doesn't tag him at some point. A 25 year-old with two KO losses is a red flag against Brito imo. Think Brito KO vs Elliott decision is a good play, but I think Brito probably just wins.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Josefine Knutsson by SUB or DEC
Knutsson is an accomplished kickboxer who was P4P ranked before retiring to pursue a career in MMA. She is fighting a less accomplished former kickboxer, Isis Verbeek, whose striking style imo translates better to MMA; not that it should matter in this fight. Knutsson is not a great grappler but she is capable of taking down opponents which will be a clear path to victory for her because Verbeek's takedown-defense is non-existent as is her getup game. Verbeek has been taken down by every single opponent she has ever fought and held down by most of them as well. Knutsson has fought significantly better competition and is most likely going to SUB Verbeek. Very safe play.
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On review I don't know if I totally agree with this. Verbeek defended every takedown attempt in her last fight, and actually has a sub against a decent grappler. Training with Rose for this fight too. I don't think she's an incompetent grappler at all.

I do think Knutsson's the better kickboxer overall though. I see most of this fight happening on the feet or in the clinch, and Knutsson should pull it out. But imo the grappling might be relatively even. Knutsson's definitely got some good wrestlers in her gym, so it's possible she's grinding that game, but I don't think it's a huge advantage.
 
rev0lver said:
On review I don't know if I totally agree with this. Verbeek defended every takedown attempt in her last fight, and actually has a sub against a decent grappler. Training with Rose for this fight too. I don't think she's an incompetent grappler at all.

I do think Knutsson's the better kickboxer overall though. I see most of this fight happening on the feet or in the clinch, and Knutsson should pull it out. But imo the grappling might be relatively even. Knutsson's definitely got some good wrestlers in her gym, so it's possible she's grinding that game, but I don't think it's a huge advantage.
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Verbeek is getting taken down and held down by fighters on the regional scene who are totally outmatched by her physically, athletically, and who in many cases have losing records. It seems very unlikely she is going to fare better against an opponent like Knutsson who is not only a much better grappler than these sub .500 fighters who are holding her down but also every bit her athletic and physical equal.

Its been over a week since I taped Knutsson/Verbeek and I am not going to rewatch Verbeek/Odessa-Parker so I will take your word that Isis wasn't taken down but that doesn't change my read on the fight. If Knutsson chooses to grapple, and I don't see why she wouldn't, it is over for Verbeek.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Verbeek is getting taken down and held down by fighters on the regional scene who are totally outmatched by her physically, athletically, and who in many cases have losing records. It seems very unlikely she is going to fare better against an opponent like Knutsson who is not only a much better grappler than these sub .500 fighters who are holding her down but also every bit her athletic and physical equal.

Its been over a week since I taped Knutsson/Verbeek and I am not going to rewatch Verbeek/Odessa-Parker so I will take your word that Isis wasn't taken down but that doesn't change my read on the fight. If Knutsson chooses to grapple, and I don't see why she wouldn't, it is over for Verbeek.
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Idk, I'm just not really seeing what you're seeing. It's a small sample size, and the Odessa fight was her only MMA fight in 2 years. For a transitioning kickboxer, grappling defense is a process, and she definitely showed she's successfully worked on that if it was a problem before. And even so - in her fights before that, her grappling defense looked fine even if it wasn't incredible, even finding a sub on a grappler. I'm not going to be floored if Knutsson can find a takedown at some point, but I don't see it as some massive weakness for a fellow kickboxer to clearly exploit.
 
Pereira failed medicals btw, bout with Dos Santos scrapped
 
Robbie Ring (6-0) Vs Luis Pajuelo (7-1)

Presenting an enticing matchup, we have Robbie Ring (USA), who boasts an unblemished record in both his pro and amateur career, pitted against Luis Pajuelo (Peru), who carries a single loss in his pro journey and another in his amateur days.

Both of Luis Pajelo's losses were split decisions, so an argument can be made that they are both undefeated.

It's worth noting that both their competition history raises some questions.

At 23 years old, Robbie Ring stands as the younger contender, while Luis Pajuelo, at 28, brings a touch of experience to the table.

Luis has demonstrated commendable resilience and forward pressure, making it clear that he won't retreat from a challenging battle.

On the other hand, Robbie excels in wrestling and displays superior defensive skills, offering him a strategic advantage.

As the odds for this matchup remain closely contested, I'm inclined to embrace the underdog. I hold the view that Robbie, while promising, may still lack the seasoning that comes with experience.

This leads me to lean towards the more mature and battle-tested fighter.

Pick: Luis Pajuelo ML (+135)
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Verbeek is getting taken down and held down by fighters on the regional scene who are totally outmatched by her physically, athletically, and who in many cases have losing records. It seems very unlikely she is going to fare better against an opponent like Knutsson who is not only a much better grappler than these sub .500 fighters who are holding her down but also every bit her athletic and physical equal.

Its been over a week since I taped Knutsson/Verbeek and I am not going to rewatch Verbeek/Odessa-Parker so I will take your word that Isis wasn't taken down but that doesn't change my read on the fight. If Knutsson chooses to grapple, and I don't see why she wouldn't, it is over for Verbeek.
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I don't know if Knut is going to be Isis's equal physically, but she'll be close enough that she should be fine.

Verbeek definitely hits harder, but Knut fights really smart for someone with so little MMA fights. Her last two fights really impressed me, even if they weren't exciting.

I don't remember if Isis did get taken down by Odessa, but from what I remember Odessa is a boxer turned MMA fighter and not that great. I don't really remember Odessa even coming to grapple in that.

I think Knut is just not going to be there to get hit, and she'll come in smart, land some leading strikes and do good work in the clinch. It's like you said, Isis is getting pushed around by smaller girls already. Some of Isis's opponents were pretty decent, but Knut looks to be a bit higher level than them.

I also like that Knut has some semi-UFC experience that Isis doesn't with how she fought on that road to UFC card. These DWCS cards have the same sort of feel, so it won't be some new experience for her.

Only real way I see Isis winning is with strikes when coming out of the clinch, if she even can get out of the clinch. Isis is a decent fighter but man she loses visuals really badly, and I feel like Knut is way better at winning them.
 
Ring's striking philosophy was stand in the pocket and wing wide, wild shots vs a better striker. Dude is a grappler that wanted to brawl. Well...there ya go kid. Lesson learned.
 
B.Goetz said:
I hope you're right. Better odds for those interested (BOL):

Kaik Brito -3.5 points (-130) $19.50 to win $15.00
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Felt safer to me going with the under. Can see a high pace fight happening unless Wales guy comes out wrestling
 
These two are 28 and 27.

Isis looks 40, Josefine looks 19.
 
Brito is wild AF. Just throws wild lunging power shots without much setup.
 
Could be a draw, round 2 absolutely could be 10-8 since Brito was so close to finishing and Elliot was stumbling around the last 2 minutes close to being put away.

Incredible recovery by Elliott, I'd give him a contract even if it was a draw.
 
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