Evidence of Jones' Guilt

[Captain Herb]

How can i take it as sarcasm when you’ve been dead serious about the same line for pages?

I believe it was once…..

He had 5 total tests in Q3 2017, so you're saying he had 4 negative tests between July 1 and July 27 and then a positive test on July 28? You sure about that? That's 5 tests in about a month.

 

[kflo]

He had 5 total tests in Q3 2017, so you're saying he had 4 negative tests between July 1 and July 27 and then a positive test on July 28? You sure about that? That's 5 tests in about a month.

He had 3 urine tests. 2 before the 28th. One on the 28th. I believe the other 2 that quarter were blood tests.

 

[macaronicaesar]

I believe there won't be a definitive answer for a while. He shouldn't have cheated to begin with.

But since he did cheat to begin with the proper decision is to ban him until such time that the substance is no longer detectable or they can actually prove their claims and support it with science. As of now, they can’t and JBJ doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt. He cheated, that’s his problem, not mine.

 

[TrueFightFan]

No, I'm not asking for leniency. Am I asking that he get back pay for time on suspension? Am I asking that his NCs be turned back into victory? He was punished for his offense.

Since you want to make the criminal justice analogy, you are aware of the concept of DOUBLE JEOPARDY, right? I'm not arguing for better prison food for someone on death row. You're arguing for someone to be re-tried, convicted and punished for the same crime that they just got done serving their sentence and parole for, which you can't do.

You know what else you don't do in a criminal court? You can't claim that the fact that they did something before is proof of guilt on a subsequent offense. You actually have to offer proof of that subsequent offense.

Probably, not an analogy you should have made.

Pointing out that you can't invent a second offense that you can't prove, in order to punish him more for the first offense is hardly a plea for leniency. That's about fundamental fairness for EVERYONE.

I'm saying you don't get to go back and, after the fact, decide that you're going to punish him a second time. That's not about being nice to a known cheater, it's about having a fundamentally objective and consistent method of oversight.

The crime analogy is actually a better one than I imagined....
If you find blood on jones' hands after a murder (failed test) and convict him, then later another murder occurs (failed test) and he has a drop of blood under his fingernails, he probably did it.

You are arguing that he "may not have cheated again" but the fact is that, even with all of the new science and testing methods, we don't know. So you take it for what it is....he got caught again.

 

[TrueFightFan]

c'mon bro. none of that addresses anything i actually post about. like i said, if you want to brand him a cheater and a scumbag and a piece of shit i really don't care. do it. feel free.

but that doesn't address at all anything i am saying about the facts of his case or the cases of others around m3. again, it's not just jones but the careers of other athletes as well. you want to just let it go because jones is a cheater and you hate him. that doesn't mean that people get to make up their own "facts" and spout bullshit and falsehoods, which @acannxr and @Captain Herb and others have been doing all over this thread due to willful ignorance or just an agenda.

i get that it's an unpopular position because they hate jones and because they made up their minds well before we had better information.

Brother, forget feelings and emotionality, the fact is that YOU DON'T KNOW IF HE CHEATED OR NOT, even with all of the M3 research that you have done. All you have done is cast "potential doubt" and the truth is that YOU MAY BE RIGHT and he hasn't cheated again. The problem is that there is no DEFINITIVE proof either way so all you can do is go with the testing that is available now. I posted this earlier, maybe the testing has surpassed the masking and that's why M3's are now showing up. I'm sure they will come up with a way to mask the M3's and then we will be chasing something else but in regards to jon (and oj simpson), if the glove fits....

 

[WHITE ANDERSON]

Usada publishes all arbitration agreements when they are complete. Everyone would look pretty dumb if this happens. He’s still one of the most tested fighters in 2021 and arbitrations don’t take this long.

UFC has changed the rules for jones before
maybe jones is everything he can to delay this idk
makes no sense for him to be inactive for two years otherwise

especially when he was crying so much about missing out on his prime paydays

 

[HHJ]

this thread should be stickied

 

[Captain Herb]

He had 3 urine tests. 2 before the 28th. One on the 28th. I believe the other 2 that quarter were blood tests.

With the idea of having to test clean for 6 months, this mystery would largely be solved because he would have been regularly tested through the last part of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Since USADA completely dropped the ball on this, we will probably never know.

Given your belief that M3 can be excreted for many years and your knowledge of all the test results, when do you suppose Jon began doping with Turinabol and why?

 

[kflo]

The crime analogy is actually a better one than I imagined....
If you find blood on jones' hands after a murder (failed test) and convict him, then later another murder occurs (failed test) and he has a drop of blood under his fingernails, he probably did it.

You are arguing that he "may not have cheated again" but the fact is that, even with all of the new science and testing methods, we don't know. So you take it for what it is....he got caught again.

You have the experts in the field saying that dhcmt metabolites can be detectable in trace amounts for years after ingestion. You know you will be randomly tested for the presence of those metabolites. You know your career is at stake if you reingest. Low and behold, the metabolites are being detected in trace amounts for years.

Your conclusion - anyone who has trace amounts for years is reingesting and must be punished.

That’s your logic.

So jones, Grant Dawson, Muslim Salikov, Stephanie Egger, Ryan Benoit, Roman Dolidze, etc are all obviously just guilty repeat offending scumbags. Obviously. Because they continued to have trace amounts of metabolites that can stay in the system for a long time.

 

[kflo]

With the idea of having to test clean for 6 months, this mystery would largely be solved because he would have been regularly tested through the last part of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Since USADA completely dropped the ball on this, we will probably never know.

Given your belief that M3 can be excreted for many years and your knowledge of all the test results, when do you suppose Jon began doping with Turinabol and why?

Your idea of testing clean for 6 months for metabolites that can linger for years solves nothing.

We don’t know enough about m3 yet to have much of an idea. He’s only ever had traces of the long term metabolite. Again, this isn’t just about jones. You have similar stories from other athletes. I get that they all have reason to lie. But they also all have reason NOT to use tbol or similar substances for performance enhancement while they are being randomly drug tested.

So fine, suspend them for the first sign of use. But to continually keep them on the sidelines when they have no incentive to use that substance, no sign of using again, no performance enhancement from the metabolites just seems vindictive.

 

[kflo]

Brother, forget feelings and emotionality, the fact is that YOU DON'T KNOW IF HE CHEATED OR NOT, even with all of the M3 research that you have done. All you have done is cast "potential doubt" and the truth is that YOU MAY BE RIGHT and he hasn't cheated again. The problem is that there is no DEFINITIVE proof either way so all you can do is go with the testing that is available now. I posted this earlier, maybe the testing has surpassed the masking and that's why M3's are now showing up. I'm sure they will come up with a way to mask the M3's and then we will be chasing something else but in regards to jon (and oj simpson), if the glove fits....

You can’t prove you’re innocent beyond reasonable doubt so you’re going to jail mother fucker!

 

[Cracked_Rib]

You know you will be randomly tested for the presence of those metabolites. You know your career is at stake if you reingest.

You're writing this as if Jon was a rational person that wouldn't take a risk to give himself the edge. This is obviously wrong.

The whole point about this is whether you believe Jones deserves the benefit of the doubt or not. I think one must be an idiot -or corrupt- to give repeat offenders (the Turinabol wasn't his first offense, remember the "dickpills"?) the benefit of the doubt. Make of that what you will.

 

[kflo]

You're writing this as if Jon was a rational person that wouldn't take a risk to give himself the edge. This is obviously wrong.

The whole point about this is whether you believe Jones deserves the benefit of the doubt or not. I think one must be an idiot to give repeat offenders (the Turinabol wasn't his first offense, remember the "dickpills"?) the benefit of the doubt. Make of that what you will.

Do you have any idea how he’d use tbol for an edge and try to avoid detection under usada? What would that look like for someone who has already been suspended for it?

This is part of the problem. No one has any idea what that would look like. Traditional tbol doping protocols are nonsensical.

So while you think giving the benefit of the doubt isn’t justified, it does help to have a strong viable alternative explanation. Not just well he probably doped.

 

[Cracked_Rib]

Do you have any idea how he’d use tbol for an edge and try to avoid detection under usada? What would that look like for someone who has already been suspended for it?

Again, you're assuming Jon is a rational or intelligent person that wouldn't cheat. This is plain wrong as the past has shown.

So while you think giving the benefit of the doubt isn’t justified, it does help to have a strong viable alternative explanation. Not just well he probably doped.

The science on the topic was extremely thin when they came up with what you call a "strong and viable" explanation. It is a possibility, but far from a strongexplanation to the already proven alternative that Jon did in fact already ingest Turinabol before. In that light I can only reiterate that one must either be an idiot or corrupt to accept the premise of a person like Jon deserving the benefit of the doubt.

When you are a repeat offender the burden of proof should start to shift from the governing body to the offender if things aren't clear.

 

[kflo]

Again, you're assuming Jon is a rational or intelligent person that wouldn't cheat. This is plain wrong as the past has shown.

you're assuming he's a fuckin moron intentionally throwing his career and reputation away.

The science on the topic was extremely thin when they came up with what you call a "strong and viable" explanation. It is a possibility, but far from a strongexplanation to the already proven alternative that Jon did in fact already ingest Turinabol before. In that light I can only reiterate that one must either be an idiot or corrupt to accept the premise of a person like Jon deserving the benefit of the doubt.

i have no idea what you're trying to say. you are not at all addressing what i asked.

When you are a repeat offender the burden of proof should start to shift from the governing body to the offender if things aren't clear.

i'm sorry but prove you didn't do something is an impossible standard.

 

[Cracked_Rib]

you're assuming he's a fuckin moron intentionally throwing his career and reputation away.

You seem to have trouble understanding the very simple fact that if somebody is stupid that person doesn't necessarily realize the consequences his actions, especially if the person already did cheat multiple times and got away with it with a slap on the wrist. To use the word intentionally in that context is absolutely ridiculous.

Furthermore, I think his hit&run on a pregnant lady was the moment he threw his reputation away, so that ship has long sailed.

i have no idea what you're trying to say. you are not at all addressing what i asked.

If you cheat somebody multiple times that person would be an idiot to give you the benefit of the doubt in the future. If you have no idea what that means or that concept is too hard for you to grasp, well... sorry?

to prove you didn't do something is an impossible standard.

It's not at all impossible and it absolutely makes sense for repeat offenders, since there should be serious repercussions for people trying to cheat multiple times. If you flag yet again you must be able to prove that you're not guilty or you're out. Period.

 

[kflo]

You seem to have trouble understanding the very simple fact that if somebody is stupid that person doesn't necessarily realize the consequences his actions, especially if the person already did cheat multiple times and got away with it with a slap on the wrist. To use the word intentionally in that context is absolutely ridiculous.

Furthermore, I think his hit&run on a pregnant lady was the moment he threw his reputation away, so that ship has long sailed.

so being an asshole outside the sport means you don't care about how you are perceived in your sport? you don't think jon jones cares about his legacy in the sport?

If you cheat somebody multiple times that person would be an idiot to give you the benefit of the doubt in the future. If you have no idea what that means or that concept is too hard for you to grasp, well... sorry?

i'm asking you for specifics. you just give "he cheated" as if that provides any reasonable explanation. it's an easy copout. you don't know anything about tbol or tbol doping protocols but a blanket he probably cheated again is all you need.

It's not at all impossible and it absolutely makes sense for repeat offenders, since there should be serious repercussions for people trying to cheat multiple times. If you flag yet again you must be able to prove that you're not guilty or you're out. Period.

again, this is nonsense. how would one go about proving that metabolites in their urine were not from new ingestion? explain.

 

[Cracked_Rib]

so being an asshole outside the sport means you don't care about how you are perceived in your sport? you don't think jon jones cares about his legacy in the sport?

Again, we are talking about the guy that claimed he took random dick pills at a gas station, as a pro athlete that's being tested. Of course he cares about his legacy, but Jon is stupid, that's the bottom line. Stupid people don't see the consequences of their actions until they are spelled out and very often until it's too late. Your argument that it would make no sense for a rational person to reingest Turinabol under those circumstances is pointless, because -again- Jon is stupid. Do you understand that?

i'm asking you for specifics. you just give "he cheated" as if that provides any reasonable explanation. it's an easy copout. you don't know anything about tbol or tbol doping protocols but a blanket he probably cheated again is all you need.

How about you answer my point instead of trying to talk about copouts or literally anything else. Would you personally give somebody the benefit of the doubt that cheated you twice already?

again, this is nonsense. how would one go about proving that metabolites in their urine were not from new ingestion? explain.

Again, he got caught for cheating twice already. That's a fact. Now my OPINION is that if he flags again he better have proof of his innocence. If he can't provide it, he's gone. How he does it is none of my concern. He's a proven cheat anyways and in my view it's better to not have him compete and be wrong than the other way around. You can disagree with that opinion or not, I don't really care, but trying to paint that reasoning as nonsense is just childish and doesn't make you look more intelligent.

 

[kflo]

Again, we are talking about the guy that claimed he took random dick pills at a gas station, as a pro athlete that's being tested. Of course he cares about his legacy, but Jon is stupid, that's the bottom line. Stupid people don't see the consequences of their actions until they are spelled out and very often until it's too late. Your argument that it would make no sense for a rational person to reingest Turinabol under those circumstances is pointless, because -again- Jon is stupid. Do you understand that?



How about you answer my point instead of trying to talk about copouts or literally anything else. Would you personally give somebody the benefit of the doubt that cheated you twice already?



Again, he got caught for cheating twice already. That's a fact. Now my OPINION is that if he flags again he better have proof of his innocence. If he can't provide it, he's gone. How he does it is none of my concern. He's a proven cheat anyways and in my view it's better to not have him compete and be wrong than the other way around. You can disagree with that opinion or not, I don't really care, but trying to paint that reasoning as nonsense is just childish and doesn't make you look more intelligent.

yeah, he's just stupid......anything can be explained away just by calling someone stupid.

again, how the fuck does someone prove innocence? you can't even try to come up with a how.

it is nonsense to suggest someone pulsing m3 metabolites has the ability to prove they were innocent. you can't. it's impossible so it is nonsense to have that as a standard.

 

[UsernameLOL]

@kflo I appreciate our back and forth and I’d like to think we’ve both learned things from each other. But I’m going to bow out of this thread for awhile. I have way too much to learn about

A) mass spectrometry
B) metabolism models
C) statistical machine learning (like two textbooks worth)

etc. before I am willing to assert anything; I want to go from engaging in skepticism to proper science. I’m going to try and a build a user-friendly app for Cowan’s model instead of just a computer script. After doing so I’m going to try and reach out to him through an old professor whose area of research is machine learning applied to mass spectrometry. I do have a contact in big pharma who may know a thing or two about drug metabolism.


I’m not even going to make this about Jones but about science in general. That new paper made me rethink a lot of what I previously thought about shorter term metabolites.

I do wish the data in that paper was more specific: actual excretion curves of various metabolites for various subjects. I’d like to know if short term metabolites pulse as well as that would be much more informative than just the “max detectable day”; if shorter term metabolites are only detectable “some of the time” throughout their excretion curve then that greatly reduces the chance of catching them.

I’ll probably make one more post about applying Cowan’s model to the excretion curve in the OP. Applying the multi-dose scheme then extrapolating as opposed to the other way around (which I did previously).