Evidence of Jones' Guilt

Like I said, I'll deal with the "trace amounts" argument later (along with inter-individual variability).



It's possible they were caught after they discontinued doping. Totally possible. But we know that DHCMT use was rampant from 2008 - 2012 before the new long term metabolite tests were rolled out. If you can find some re-test (from 2008 - 2012) arbitration agreements that mention metabolites other than m3 I would really like to see them. That would support your statement "athletes caught doping with dhcmt will have other markers besides m3". I would think that if someone tested positive for multiple metabolites then the arbitration agreement would mention it.
which arbitration agreements are you talking about? i think there are 4 under usada in addition to jones, with 1 not referencing m3 at all (he flagged for many substances, not just dhcmt), 1 for 12 pg/ml of m3, and for chi-lewis parry the arbitration references "metabolites of dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (“DHCMT”) or another chlorine substituted anabolic steroid" but doesn't reference m3 or any specific ones.

there are not alot of data points. note the first dhcmt related sanction specifically referenced on the usada sanction page is mir in 2016.


Of course m3 is not the only detectable metabolite. We have the other 2 long term metabolites but cases involving them from the retests are almost impossible to come by so I have to disagree with "athletes caught doping will have other markers besides m3. Those markers will indicate ingestion within some reasonable time frame from the test date". Clearly less detectable and not just because of detection window; I contend if shorter LTM were reasonably detectable then we'd see many more instances of them from random retests of a large athlete population but that isn't the case.
again, you have almost zero details backing those tests. again, even the arbitrations don't fully reference what metabolites were detected. at least 2 cases where m3 was referenced were athletes who admitted using before entering usada testing (so not recent and unlikely to include short term metabolites).

here's an arbitration related to the RUSADA doping scheme. page 7 references the findings from retested samples and references the presence of 5 different metabolites (see table on bottom of page).
https://www.athleticsintegrity.org/....O.6762-World-Athletics-v.-RUSAf-Soboleva.pdf


verifying that if you are doping you will have multiple markers, which we know anyway.

I'm glad you brought this up. This strongly suggests that m3 would not be detectable after 2-3 years if athletes were doping in 2012, got caught in 2013 for long term metabolites , then didn't get caught in 2014. Inter-individual variability accounted for.
did they continue testing those athletes who were sanctioned for years in 2013?

Is this question in regards to UFC athletes? My hypothesis is that shorter term LTMs are nearly impossible to find. After all retests of a large swath of athletes under WADA from an era where dhcmt use was rampant scarcely turned up short term LTMs (can't find any arbitration agreements dealing with them).

As for trace amounts I'll deal with that shortly with a "first pass approach" (not controlling for bias and variance) of the turinabol m3 excretion data in the OP.

Previously I extrapolated a single dose and then applied Cowan's model. Now I will apply Cowan's model first without extrapolating.
you didn't answer my question. i reference an arbitration that does reference more metabolites. what arbitrations from that era are you aware of? most of the earlier arbitration reports i've seen from CAS don't even reference specific metabolites.

but here's the question again.
Let me ask you - based on what you know about tbol doping schemes, and usada random testing, and the detection window, what is your hypothesis about what tbol doping schemes athletes are using to try to avoid detection? Do you have one? Do you think there are educated athletes who look at tbol and think that’s a good steroid to improve performance and avoid detection under usada?​
 
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Sorry man but I'm not the only one who thinks something is up with Jon. You have some good points but after a decade of honeydicking us, I just dont believe him anymore. Nothing wrong with my opinion or yours
That's fair. I was checking to see if it was anything other than "Jones, so probably some BS going on."

I'm still going to look for something more substantial when assessing an allegation, but his track record is such that I can't fault anyone for a healthy dose of side-eye and skepticism.
 
@fzoid4454 @kflo

Holy shit.

This paper was published yesterday.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.02.454719v1

I haven't read through it but I'm sure it will add to our discussion.

If this contradicts my previously held notions then I will admit it. This appears to be exactly what we're looking for. A single dose, multiple subject, multiple metabolite study.

I wish they would give graphs for each subject lol wtf?
 
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That's fair. I was checking to see if it was anything other than "Jones, so probably some BS going on."

I'm still going to look for something more substantial when assessing an allegation, but his track record is such that I can't fault anyone for a healthy dose of side-eye and skepticism.
"Jones, so probably some BS going on"
I think that sentence is unfortunately pretty accurate with Jon. And thanks for being civil even if we don't see eye to eye.
 
@fzoid4454 @kflo

Holy shit.

This paper was published yesterday.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.02.454719v1

I haven't read through it but I'm sure it will add to our discussion.

If this contradicts my previously held notions then I will admit it. This appears to be exactly what we're looking for. A single dose, multiple subject, multiple metabolite study.

I wish they would give graphs for each subject lol wtf?
It doesn't really touch upon the discussion of really long-term M3 detection. It didn't really test for that.

their urine samples were collected for a total of 60 days

However, they identified another metabolite that did show up in all four samples, so it sounds like that would be an additional marker that might help separate recent actual use from people "pulsing" from long ago, contamination, or both of those situations. But that was just from the abstract. I'll see if I can track down the whole paper and see if anything interesting pops up, or if they make any statements about the current state of scientific understanding that we've been treating as unsettled or up in the air.

Looks like a link to the full paper was there with the abstract, and not through a paywall, so I downloaded it. I'll let you know if anything jumps out at me.

Here's the link to the full paper -

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.02.454719v1.full.pdf
 
"Jones, so probably some BS going on"
I think that sentence is unfortunately pretty accurate with Jon. And thanks for being civil even if we don't see eye to eye.

I don't think we're that far off from each other. My fundamental idea of fairness is that we have to see fairly concrete evidence. My fundamental sense of reality and common sense is that there's a shit-ton of cheating in sports because it's tough to meet that standard.

Florence Griffith-Joyner has held Olympic and track records in the women's sprint events since 1988, and died an icon. It will never be proven, but my sense is, yeah, probably, she was dirty. Too many times the appeal has been for the presumption of innocence, and trusting in the character of the athletes protesting their innocence and righteousness, and it winds up they were cynically lying. It happens too often to not expect to find otherwise.

But if we're talking about taking action, I think you still need to meet a standard of proof. And certainly my comment about Jones is that he's proven to be enough of a shit-heel in his actions that words don't carry much weight for him, any more, in terms of expectations.
 
@kflo
It doesn't really touch upon the discussion of really long-term M3 detection. It didn't really test for that.



However, they identified another metabolite that did show up in all four samples, so it sounds like that would be an additional marker that might help separate recent actual use from people "pulsing" from long ago, contamination, or both of those situations. But that was just from the abstract. I'll see if I can track down the whole paper and see if anything interesting pops up, or if they make any statements about the current state of scientific understanding that we've been treating as unsettled or up in the air.

Looks like a link to the full paper was there with the abstract, and not through a paywall, so I downloaded it. I'll let you know if anything jumps out at me.

Here's the link to the full paper -

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.02.454719v1.full.pdf

yeah I was surprised earlier when the download pdf link worked. I guess this is a pre-print.

In the future you can circumvent almost all pay walls with

sci-hub.se

copy and paste the DOI and you’re good to go.
 
@fzoid4454 @kflo

Holy shit.

This paper was published yesterday.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.02.454719v1

I haven't read through it but I'm sure it will add to our discussion.

If this contradicts my previously held notions then I will admit it. This appears to be exactly what we're looking for. A single dose, multiple subject, multiple metabolite study.

I wish they would give graphs for each subject lol wtf?
Have your buddy edit the op though. There were 49 DHCMT AAF’s in 2012. Increasing to 217 in 2013……
https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/defa...012-Anti-Doping-Testing-Figures-Report-EN.pdf

Unfortunately study is a 60 day, 5mg dose study…….it has weird data……hard to really process it relative to what we have previously known…
 
Have your buddy edit the op though. There were 49 DHCMT AAF’s in 2012. Increasing to 217 in 2013……
https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/defa...012-Anti-Doping-Testing-Figures-Report-EN.pdf

Unfortunately study is a 60 day, 5mg dose study…….it has weird data……hard to really process it relative to what we have previously known…

Yeah. @acannxr there was a graph of global statistics (as opposed to just the cologne lab) for dhcmt use in the paper and it turns out there were 49 AAFs in 2012 for dhcmt and 217 in 2013.



Yeah I’ll agree with you it is hard to process.


However I did see a metabolite besides m3 that was present up to 16 days after administration. If I had more specific data I could apply Cowan’s model and extrapolate for multiple doses.

But this paper was a reminder of how hard it is to draw conclusions, and how much science has to be vetted. so I’m probably not going to insist that Jones is guilty anymore.

I’m merely going to play around with data sets and see where it takes me while taking the conclusions with a grain of salt.

I have to do a final project for my data science bootcamp so I’m going to apply time series analysis to clomiphene data sets. After that I’m going to ask old professors for feedback.
 
It shows that they doped, but we're still chasing our tails on this. The punishment or sanction for a single doping incident is not a lifetime ban. The presence of the M3 does NOT show evidence that they have subsequently doped.

We keep doing this song and dance. Your standard is now a lifetime ban for any single instance of doping. Fair enough. But that's not what the rules are. Then any subsequent test result is really irrelevant, isn't it?
Like I said earlier, if it were up to me, I would impose a standard suspension and a requirement to test clean for 6 months running concurrently. If someone is pulsing Turinabol for a lifetime, they must have done a whole lot of it at some point.

And we're also talking about something that has yet to be proved to exist. Saying Jon must be pulsing because he tested positive for the same thing a year earlier is a lot like saying when my car was broken into, it must have been Bigfoot because there was a Bigfoot sighting in the area a year ago.
 
Like I said earlier, if it were up to me, I would impose a standard suspension and a requirement to test clean for 6 months running concurrently. If someone is pulsing Turinabol for a lifetime, they must have done a whole lot of it at some point.

And we're also talking about something that has yet to be proved to exist. Saying Jon must be pulsing because he tested positive for the same thing a year earlier is a lot like saying when my car was broken into, it must have been Bigfoot because there was a Bigfoot sighting in the area a year ago.
in advance of the smith fight, jones test results were:
feb 1 - no findings
feb 9 - no findings
feb 14 - 40 pg/ml
feb 15 - 20 pg/ml
feb 18 - no findings

i know you see that and say, that's not pulsing.....he must have taken tbol on the 10th! but yeah, ok, pulsing isn't proven to exist......
 
in advance of the smith fight, jones test results were:
feb 1 - no findings
feb 9 - no findings
feb 14 - 40 pg/ml
feb 15 - 20 pg/ml
feb 18 - no findings

i know you see that and say, that's not pulsing.....he must have taken tbol on the 10th! but yeah, ok, pulsing isn't proven to exist......
ok, what does that have to do with 2017/18?
 
it has to do with you still doubting the existence of pulsing......
Ah ha! So these tests are proof that he was still pulsing from 2017 all the way into 2019! Not bad Watson. This is the irrefutable truth that everyone has been searching for. By the way, didn't Smith just say that Jon failed "every one" of his tests leading up to their fight?
 
Ah ha! So these tests are proof that he was still pulsing from 2017 all the way into 2019! Not bad Watson. This is the irrefutable truth that everyone has been searching for. By the way, didn't Smith just say that Jon failed "every one" of his tests leading up to their fight?
Lol. You don’t even fuckin know what pulsing means. It’s comical and yet you flaunt your ignorance. No one said it proves he was pulsing from 2017 genius. It proves pulsing exists. You pretend it doesn’t.

Smith was wrong. The nsac even published those test results. Back then. We knew it back in 2019. Well people who care about facts knew.
 
"To me this suggests" that the M3 does not break down, nor does the body have any mechanism to purge what residual amounts are there.
You don't think that secreting into the urine is a mechanism to purge residual amounts?
 
Lol. You don’t even fuckin know what pulsing means. It’s comical and yet you flaunt your ignorance. No one said it proves he was pulsing from 2017 genius. It proves pulsing exists. You pretend it doesn’t.

Smith was wrong. The nsac even published those test results. Back then. We knew it back in 2019. Well people who care about facts knew.
To me pulsing means that you dope, get caught, don't test positive for a full year and then start failing again forever.
 
To me pulsing means that you dope, get caught, don't test positive for a full year and then start failing again forever.
You’re a joke on this topic. Again, you don’t know what pulsing is.
how many times did he test negative in a row after his July 28th 2017 positive?
Keep ducking the answer yet repeating your nonsense.

Again, you flaunt your ignorance.
 
You’re a joke on this topic. Again, you don’t know what pulsing is.
how many times did he test negative in a row after his July 28th 2017 positive?
Keep ducking the answer yet repeating your nonsense.

Again, you flaunt your ignorance.
Lol you don't do well with sarcasm do you? I give up, how many times? (Just so you don't have an aneurysm)
 
Lol you don't do well with sarcasm do you? I give up, how many times? (Just so you don't have an aneurysm)
How can i take it as sarcasm when you’ve been dead serious about the same line for pages?

I believe it was once…..
 
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