which arbitration agreements are you talking about? i think there are 4 under usada in addition to jones, with 1 not referencing m3 at all (he flagged for many substances, not just dhcmt), 1 for 12 pg/ml of m3, and for chi-lewis parry the arbitration references "metabolites of dehydrochlormethyltestosterone (“DHCMT”) or another chlorine substituted anabolic steroid" but doesn't reference m3 or any specific ones.Like I said, I'll deal with the "trace amounts" argument later (along with inter-individual variability).
It's possible they were caught after they discontinued doping. Totally possible. But we know that DHCMT use was rampant from 2008 - 2012 before the new long term metabolite tests were rolled out. If you can find some re-test (from 2008 - 2012) arbitration agreements that mention metabolites other than m3 I would really like to see them. That would support your statement "athletes caught doping with dhcmt will have other markers besides m3". I would think that if someone tested positive for multiple metabolites then the arbitration agreement would mention it.
there are not alot of data points. note the first dhcmt related sanction specifically referenced on the usada sanction page is mir in 2016.
again, you have almost zero details backing those tests. again, even the arbitrations don't fully reference what metabolites were detected. at least 2 cases where m3 was referenced were athletes who admitted using before entering usada testing (so not recent and unlikely to include short term metabolites).Of course m3 is not the only detectable metabolite. We have the other 2 long term metabolites but cases involving them from the retests are almost impossible to come by so I have to disagree with "athletes caught doping will have other markers besides m3. Those markers will indicate ingestion within some reasonable time frame from the test date". Clearly less detectable and not just because of detection window; I contend if shorter LTM were reasonably detectable then we'd see many more instances of them from random retests of a large athlete population but that isn't the case.
here's an arbitration related to the RUSADA doping scheme. page 7 references the findings from retested samples and references the presence of 5 different metabolites (see table on bottom of page).
https://www.athleticsintegrity.org/....O.6762-World-Athletics-v.-RUSAf-Soboleva.pdf
verifying that if you are doping you will have multiple markers, which we know anyway.
did they continue testing those athletes who were sanctioned for years in 2013?I'm glad you brought this up. This strongly suggests that m3 would not be detectable after 2-3 years if athletes were doping in 2012, got caught in 2013 for long term metabolites , then didn't get caught in 2014. Inter-individual variability accounted for.
you didn't answer my question. i reference an arbitration that does reference more metabolites. what arbitrations from that era are you aware of? most of the earlier arbitration reports i've seen from CAS don't even reference specific metabolites.Is this question in regards to UFC athletes? My hypothesis is that shorter term LTMs are nearly impossible to find. After all retests of a large swath of athletes under WADA from an era where dhcmt use was rampant scarcely turned up short term LTMs (can't find any arbitration agreements dealing with them).
As for trace amounts I'll deal with that shortly with a "first pass approach" (not controlling for bias and variance) of the turinabol m3 excretion data in the OP.
Previously I extrapolated a single dose and then applied Cowan's model. Now I will apply Cowan's model first without extrapolating.
but here's the question again.
Let me ask you - based on what you know about tbol doping schemes, and usada random testing, and the detection window, what is your hypothesis about what tbol doping schemes athletes are using to try to avoid detection? Do you have one? Do you think there are educated athletes who look at tbol and think that’s a good steroid to improve performance and avoid detection under usada?
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