There are a few things that make me think it's going to be a hard fight for Jones.
- Going up a class is never an easy thing to do. Especially if it's not your natural weight class. Whittaker or Rumble may have had success in this kind of transition, but Jones is definitely not a natural HW.
- It's going to be hard to take Gane down. First, because he's heavier than most of the LHW Jones had to deal, and then because Gane is light on his feet, coming in and out like a lighter guy.
- Jones is going to feel a real HW power and even though Gane is not particularly known for his knockout power, it's going to be new for him. We also have very few examples of successful LHW at HW (except in Pride, with the right "supplements")
- Jones has not been impressive in a long time. He struggled against Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos, and Dominic Reyes. Hell even Ovince St Preux gave him a fight.
So since when do you think he's the heavy favorite against one of the top dogs at HW ?