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General MMA discussion and future lines - April 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    Limits & infrequent fight nights prevent anyone from making a living on Mma betting, realistically
     
  2. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    omg just watched the Lovato fight. Crazy to see Lovato on the special sauce, looks like a tank.

    Also

    was watching it on mute and thinking jesus his opponent's grappling is SOLID. Then I turned the sound on and learned that the guy is a Drysdale black belt. Ah. That explains it.
     
  3. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    that's just reckless given jones's lay-off and out of cage happenings, especially if he has paying subscribers, that's just sending out a terrible msg to them


    to a degree yeah, as does the money bookies make from the lines. wish there was more money for mma fights on the exchanges, the difference in price is insane for all other sports.. but there's just a big lack of ppl on the exchanges that bet on mma
     
  4. piglord Black Belt

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    on some real shit, i'm gonna throw down on mayhem miller at long odds. mainly because i don't think luke barnatt is good at all.
     
  5. null Gold Belt

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    There's oftentimes a significant variation in the lines even from one online sportsbook to another at any given moment depending on line movement. Are you saying that the exchanges are routinely better priced compared to 5Dimes, Bookmaker or other major books? Doesn't appear to consistently be the case from what I have seen. Also I wouldn't want to depend on gambling for a living but it seems pretty easy to get at least a few thousand bucks on the major fights just using a few multiple online sportsbooks.
     
  6. Barkus Brown Belt

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    Did any books offer odds for EBI 6?
     
  7. jrwfsl147 Yellow Belt

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    What about the next event, and the one after that, and so on?

    I'm from the UK, and I've got about 20 bookie accounts, and maybe half of them are good for MMA. So let's take those ten, and say you have to make £20k a year from betting MMA to make it a full time job which pays the bills, i.e. an average of £2k from each. Realstically, how long are they going to put up with that before limiting your account or banning you altogether?
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Just a curious question to any of you guys, but if you wanted to do this full time, wouldn't the smartest move be moving to Vegas? Does the grand daddy of gambling limit you like online sportsbooks?
     
  9. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I dont think anyone here is planning a career change but imo vegas is the best long term solution.

    It is in effect impossible to be limited in vegas because you can always get a friend or gf to place your bets.

    Also if u want to make a 10k bet you can spread it around to various books. A 1k bet is nothing of exception in LV
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    ***Barry bet on Cejudo last night, recommended the bet to his subscribers, then whined on here that Henry didn't "use his wrestling" to beat Mighty Mouse***
     
  11. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    the exchanges have much better value on all big sports almost all the time. however when we talk about a sport like mma which is still niche in europe where all the exchanges are and most of the customer base is located, so the lack of liquidity seeded into the markets leaves huge gaps in between prices wanted and prices offered, making big bets harder to get on the exchange for mma unless it's a big big fight and fairly close to the fight taking place.

    But if we look at the prices for a random upcoming football match for example we can easily see why exchanges are a lot better value than a bookmaker. I went to oddschecker to pick a random one : man city vs real madrid this week we can see the exchange prices(at the time of writing this) are:

    man city: 3.05 (+205)
    draw: 3.55(+255)
    real madrid: 2.54 (+154)

    you can check pretty much any bookie, I randomly chose sportsbook.ag I see the odds are:

    man city: 2.90 (+190)
    draw: 3.5 (+250)
    real madrid: 2.35 (+135)

    so a £100 bet on real madrid would net you £146.3 profit on the exchange. not £154 because exchanges charge a commission on winning bets, in betfair's case it's the highest at 5% which is £7.70 hence the £146.3.
    Yet the same £100 bet on the bookmaker would net you just £135 profit. If you then bet on say a hundred matches a year like many do, the difference would be over a £1000 so you can see it really starts to add up.
    99%+ of gamblers will lose money, probably more, and the casual's will bet on who they think will win or who they support, blindly taking whatever price the bookie is offering. the above example is typical of the price differences but it's very common to see much bigger differences when comparing the odds.

    the differences don't end there though. I'm not sure about a lot US books as much, but for successful gamblers like ITT, limitations on your max stake and sometimes even outright account closure on multiple bookmakers can become pretty common on Euro and other books, and not because you win...they couldn't care less if you win or lose because your bet has already been "hedged" for lack of a better term by them, offsetting their liability on your bet with the thousands of others they take on the other selections on that market.
    Mainly it's because sharper gamblers consistently take better value lines time and time again, this is a big part of being profitable as you guys know. yet when you take value prices you are directly cutting into their profit margins when they are balancing their book.
    Exchanges let you bet peer to peer with other gamblers and will NEVER limit you or outright ban you as they would stand to lose money from the loss of commission, NOT from the actual line itself like a bookmaker who will often take an extortionate amount of value out of the line to line their pockets. they get away with it because most punters don't understand odds or value that well, or many have never even heard of a betting exchange. also there's a distinct lack of governing laws in most countries to prohibit bookie's effectively banning sharps and only letting losing bettors and gambling addicts to bet with them.

    Then we look at the key feature of the exchange, being the ability to bet against an outcome happening, known as "a lay bet". This gives you the possibility to trade your stake for an adjustable guaranteed profit or loss depending and the odds movement. and because betfair take commission this means the lines don't have value taken out of them like a bookie, this makes their lines correct when you work out the implied probability on each side. for example a hypothetical title fight:

    Fighter A: 2.45 (+145)
    Fighter B: 1.69 (-145)

    This is an invaluable resource for gamblers, as a person who wanted to hedge fighter A with as lay bet, would have to stake more money to hedge it on a bookie than they would on the exchange due to the price difference, Again adding up to a significant amount over a longer period of time over numerous events.

    sorry for the wall of text!

    EDIT: i fell asleep ages ago writing this and just woke up lol, goddamn UFC's fucking with my sleep cycle.. so the prices in the 1st example I used have slightly changed by this time.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2016
  12. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Good line i just hit is vitor r1 at +625. Vitors style these days is to go hard r1 and finish.

    My main play is on jacare but still like this line a lot
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yep that's the hedge. I hit it at +650 awhile back. I have already said how much I love Jacare in this fight and I have a lot of action on him but it was a no brainer to hedge with Vitor rd 1 at that price.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    So I just rewatched Leslie Smith's last 2 fights and I am HAMMERING the Cyborg rd 1 prop at -160. Against both Rin and against Jessica Eye Leslie backs STRAIGHT up almost every time they come at her. It worked okay with Nakai since she's 3 feet tall with the shortest arms in MMA. Didn't work so well vs Eye. Cyborg is going to come right at her and Leslie is gonna get steamrolled imo.

    This line should be -300 I think. -160 is a steal. Leslie is tough but when Cyborg has her against the cage or on the mat teeing off how likely is it the ref lets it go on too long? And I'm pretty sure after all this time and all the talk that Cyborg is gonna want to make a big statement in her debut.
     
  15. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Same, it feels way too high and on it. Cyborg knows she needs to show off a good appearance in order to make an impact in the UFC, so I assume she will come out guns blazing.
     
  16. chemmy Green Belt

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    Back the truck up... subscribers???
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    McGregor back on 200!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  18. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Nate?
     
  19. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Nvm. He tweets hes back, but i'm reading now that nothing has changed and he isn't. Wtf is going on.....
     
  20. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Off topic but anyone thinking about going pro should talk to Barry for advice
     
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