General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

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Ok so I finally coded weightckasses into my 2015 (plus 3 2016 events).. The main reason: to see if I'm correct in betting HW and WMMA smaller than the rest...

Shocked.

2015 onwards: +201u

Including:
Hw: +35u
Wmma: +38u

And rdy for this?

125/135 men: -1u

WOW. now, its still semi small sample size.. 717 fights wagered.. But only a small # in those categories. But its making me rethink the strategy.
 
Betsafe released a few more lines for UFC Fight Night 83 in London:

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5 dimes

JJ -175
Claudia +145

Over 4.5 -210
Under 4.5 +160
 
JJ got first action on 5d opener today, -175 already -225

def gonna be on gadelha (tho i'll look to live bet JJ)
 
EzFlyer said:
JJ got first action on 5d opener today, -175 already -225

def gonna be on gadelha (tho i'll look to live bet JJ)
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100% same thoughts. I really hope Claudia can get around +200.
 
Nice, found out my 5u on JJ -150 against Claudia bet is still open from half a year ago.
Voids starting August but they're fighting in July, nice. nice.
Will definitely be on Werdum, and RDA as soon as he pops to the + side.
 
Parlay Strategy:

I am liking the idea of using the "no cards" props in parlays. If the fight ends up going to decision then that specific bet is cancelled but your parlay as a whole stays live. I can see value here for hitting potential really big parlays while minizing your risk. Even if 1 or 2 of the bets get cancelled you can still cash for a lesser amount. For example I just did this:

Barnett by dec.
Holbrook no cards
Saff no cards
Werdum no cards

risk 5 to win 298

So even if the Holbrook and Saff fights hit the cards I can still cash the Barnett + Werdum portion of the parlay for a lesser payoff. Let me know if I am missing something here...

PS. I will also want to hit Claudia at +200 and pretty sure she gets there as people parlay JJ and bet her come fight time.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Parlay Strategy:

I am liking the idea of using the "no cards" props in parlays. If the fight ends up going to decision then that specific bet is cancelled but your parlay as a whole stays live. I can see value here for hitting potential really big parlays while minizing your risk. Even if 1 or 2 of the bets get cancelled you can still cash for a lesser amount. For example I just did this:

Barnett by dec.
Holbrook no cards
Saff no cards
Werdum no cards

risk 5 to win 298

So even if the Holbrook and Saff fights hit the cards I can still cash the Barnett + Werdum portion of the parlay for a lesser payoff. Let me know if I am missing something here...

PS. I will also want to hit Claudia at +200 and pretty sure she gets there as people parlay JJ and bet her come fight time.
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I like the idea. You obviously have to pick your spots. Fights where you back the fighter who has a solid shot at a finish but if they lose it's most likely via dec. The one jumping off the page to me right now is Nelson no cards vs Rosholt. Roy could easily KO Jared or get laid on for 3 rds but odds seem really low for a Rosholt finish.
 
i've been good w/those no scorecard bets, too. MOST have been pushes, i think, but i've literally only had ONE loss, pretty sure, since they started -- when i did alvey no scorecards vs brunson

basically, i do them when i think there's SOOOOO little chance that a guy will get finished, so it's almost a freeroll (no such thing, i know)

cause when there's a good payout on them, usually it pays better if you just bet the ITD normally (which carries more risk, obviously, but pays better)

it's akin to the way i "play" huge favorites. in my mind, a -400 guy should ALMOST never be bet. because if they're that big of a favorite and you want to bet them, you should know how they're going to win. there are exceptions to every rule, obviously, but basicalyl...if i'm gonna bet a guy who's -1000, i'm not touching that ML. i'll bet him ITD -150, etc. (whatever is applicable)
 
EzFlyer said:
i've been good w/those no scorecard bets, too. MOST have been pushes, i think, but i've literally only had ONE loss, pretty sure, since they started -- when i did alvey no scorecards vs brunson

basically, i do them when i think there's SOOOOO little chance that a guy will get finished, so it's almost a freeroll (no such thing, i know)

cause when there's a good payout on them, usually it pays better if you just bet the ITD normally (which carries more risk, obviously, but pays better)

it's akin to the way i "play" huge favorites. in my mind, a -400 guy should ALMOST never be bet. because if they're that big of a favorite and you want to bet them, you should know how they're going to win. there are exceptions to every rule, obviously, but basicalyl...if i'm gonna bet a guy who's -1000, i'm not touching that ML. i'll bet him ITD -150, etc. (whatever is applicable)
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Do you agree Roy no cards vs Rosholt makes sense? I really don't see a lot of value in either ML. Seems like Roy no cards is a good bet on this one? Even at HW seems like very limited risk by playing it this way? Thoughts?
 
I like Roy no cards but as I said above I see a lot of value in Rosholt ML, even though he probably won't get the finish.
 
Roy no scorecards will likely be unplayable, SU atleast. I expect it to be in the -300s. I wouldn't even be surprised if it hit the -400s.

The best play on the fight, in my opinion, is the o1.5. It covers a late-ish Roy finish, Roy decision, a late-ish Rosholt finish, and a Rosholt decision (by far his most likely method of victory).
 
Barnett had a lot of trouble getting Roy down. His short and fat frame makes it easier to defend takedowns.
And Rosholt gets rocked every time. He won''t survive a Nelson right hand.

Maybe live bet him, but I would definitely not bet him as the favourite.
 
mkess101 said:
Do you agree Roy no cards vs Rosholt makes sense? I really don't see a lot of value in either ML. Seems like Roy no cards is a good bet on this one? Even at HW seems like very limited risk by playing it this way? Thoughts?
Click to expand...

absolutely yes

but it's prolly gonna be VERY steep

and this is coming from someone who has $ on rosholt and o1.5
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Roy no scorecards will likely be unplayable, SU atleast. I expect it to be in the -300s. I wouldn't even be surprised if it hit the -400s.

The best play on the fight, in my opinion, is the o1.5. It covers a late-ish Roy finish, Roy decision, a late-ish Rosholt finish, and a Rosholt decision (by far his most likely method of victory).
Click to expand...

Man I was thinking (hoping maybe) to get it around -250. I think maybe still a little value at -300 even, but above that you're right, unplayable. Probably even as parlay fodder. I guess we'll see what it opens at.
 
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