General MMA discussion and future lines - January 2016

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Hell yeah! Dogs barking on AXS TV. Cyborg's time off did him some good, at least against the likes of this opponent. Two units profit so far on a non-UFC weekend.

Legacy FC 50 Risk $160.00

Evangelista Santos (-120) vs Artenas Young $60.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Evangelista Santos (+180) vs Artenas Young $50.00 for $90.00= $90.00
Justin Reiswerg (+120) vs Jon Harris $50.00 for $60.00= $60.00
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Total Profit= $200.00
 
hell yea, boys. all 3 dogs came thru.

i only had cyborg, tho, heh. +0.875u

i'll take it after shit tennis bets so far, lol
 
Ended up a really good night thanks JB and O for tips. I ended up hitting cyborg for 1.5u at +175.
 
damn feel asleep after a few c-level fights =/ would have switched sides to santos at +180 crazy swing.. oh well went 1-1 for tiny profit

only 1 unplayable line avaliable for one fc :( those cards have really taken a dive lately
 
I think i will end up going big on Hunt. He will have 5 rounds to find Mirs chin. Mir doesn't have very good takedowns and Hunt is hard to take down. Stipe was able to take Hunt down several times but Stipe is a good MMA wrestler who sets up his takedowns with his footwork and strikes, something that Mir is not known to do. Also add in the fact that Mir seems to focus a lot on boxing these days which. A striking battle vs Hunt will not end well for him.
 
Agent Mulder said:
I think i will end up going big on Hunt. He will have 5 rounds to find Mirs chin. Mir doesn't have very good takedowns and Hunt is hard to take down. Stipe was able to take Hunt down several times but Stipe is a good MMA wrestler who sets up his takedowns with his footwork and strikes, something that Mir is not known to do. Also add in the fact that Mir seems to focus a lot on boxing these days which. A striking battle vs Hunt will not end well for him.
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Was looking at that line too but I tend to think the books have it about right. The thought used to be that Mir didn't have a good chin, but it really was just that he reacted poorly to getting hit. He seems to be much better in that area now. Duffee (for all his flaws) hits like a truck and before Mir put him to sleep he did land a few clean shots on Mir and Mir just ate them and stayed in the pocket. And we now have seen that Mir's power is no joke either. I also think Arlovski has better tdd than Hunt and Mir did manage to take him down (though did nothing with it). Hunt clearly still has the striking advantage, but is his chin still that great? I'd say it's merely "good" now, after all the years and wars.

Like I said, I think it's priced about right. Gonna wait and see if there's some movement either way.
 
I assume everyone will be on Lombard if he stays as an underdog?
 
I think there's huge value on Diego Ferreira. He's +210 to +226 and I have him as a favorite over Aubin-Mercier. He's fantastic on the ground and probably a better striker, with more power for sure.. Mercier had trouble controlling Simms on the ground.
 
The MM Analyst said:
I think there's huge value on Diego Ferreira. He's +210 to +226 and I have him as a favorite over Aubin-Mercier. He's fantastic on the ground and probably a better striker, with more power for sure.. Mercier had trouble controlling Simms on the ground.
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Idk man. OAM's day will come, but I don't think by CD. He telegraphs strikes big time, his jits is sick but we've seen from Dariush a good wrestler with a top heavy game could neutralize it (even though Benny is def better on the mat than OAM), and hes not as athletic as OAM. I honestly don't see a path to victory for CD in this one.
 
vkram said:
I assume everyone will be on Lombard if he stays as an underdog?
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I like Magny to win outright. I'll be waiting to see if his line gets back to +100 or better before betting him, though.
 
The MM Analyst said:
I think there's huge value on Diego Ferreira. He's +210 to +226 and I have him as a favorite over Aubin-Mercier. He's fantastic on the ground and probably a better striker, with more power for sure.. Mercier had trouble controlling Simms on the ground.
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I cant see Ferreira taking OAM down. If hes gonna get on top i think he has to sweep him which is gonna be hard.
 
Agent Mulder said:
I cant see Ferreira taking OAM down. If hes gonna get on top i think he has to sweep him which is gonna be hard.
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I don't think he'll take him down, but I think OAM will struggle to take him down and CDF will win on the feet. I also think he can do enough off his back to nullify OAM's top game.

Joseph Budden said:
Idk man. OAM's day will come, but I don't think by CD. He telegraphs strikes big time, his jits is sick but we've seen from Dariush a good wrestler with a top heavy game could neutralize it (even though Benny is def better on the mat than OAM), and hes not as athletic as OAM. I honestly don't see a path to victory for CD in this one.
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He telegraphs his strikes, but OAM is very hittable. I think Darish is a significantly better grappler than OAM and even he didn't get much done on the ground. He also got the better of the striking, which I don't think OAM can do.
 
mkess101 said:
Was looking at that line too but I tend to think the books have it about right. The thought used to be that Mir didn't have a good chin, but it really was just that he reacted poorly to getting hit. He seems to be much better in that area now. Duffee (for all his flaws) hits like a truck and before Mir put him to sleep he did land a few clean shots on Mir and Mir just ate them and stayed in the pocket. And we now have seen that Mir's power is no joke either. I also think Arlovski has better tdd than Hunt and Mir did manage to take him down (though did nothing with it). Hunt clearly still has the striking advantage, but is his chin still that great? I'd say it's merely "good" now, after all the years and wars.

Like I said, I think it's priced about right. Gonna wait and see if there's some movement either way.
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I dont think Mir has a poor chin but Hunt killed Roy Nelson with a uppercut. Also theres a big difference between guys like Duffee who has pretty bad striking in general and relies on their power and Hunt who is a very accurate striker. It takes a while for him to get his timing in but when he gets a read of you its usually good night. I just think he does very well against stationary, slow moving targets like Mir.
The only guy who really outclassed him in recent years is Stipe who moves well for a heavyweight. I dont think there's any reason to doubt Hunts chin yet, that flying knee from Werdum would have wrecked anybody. Should also be noted that he was doing pretty well before that knee.
Yes Mir took Arlovski down and this is obviously a concern but Mir looked completely gassed on top and was just resting. I dont know how seriously he prepares these days. The fight is in Australia so we know that Hunt will be motivated.
 
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