1. Justin outlanded Yair’s 2 worst rounds against Max (rounds 3 and 4). But that’s very minor.
2. Max arguably won the 2nd fight against Volk. He clearly lost the 1st & 3rd. Also minor.
3. The only fight in which leg kicks played a major role was the 1st fight with Volk. Max arguably won the 2nd and Volk’s gameplan in the 3rd fight is still going over heads …
Biggest reason why Gaethje was losing out of the gate; bigger than the broken nose & eye pokes, was that Max is much more beatable when you make him come to you.
It goes over heads because you have to be elite to utilize this gameplan. Ortega at the time he fought Max, for example, wasn’t at the level; thus Max looked great coming forward. But Gaethje could’ve fought much better and Ilia should fight much better, if they make Max come to them. Volk’s 3rd fight is still relevant. The Gaethje that jabbed Fiziev to death in the latter rounds, could’ve done much better circling & jabbing. Ilia looks to have the necessary footwork (and Gaethje showed it against Khabib & Fiziev).
Max isn’t as susceptible to leg kicks as people think. He showed in the 2nd fight with Volk, that he can shorten his stance, check, and has unreal toughness. But where Max is still vulnerable is building off his jab if you have great footwork, a great jab, and he has to respect your leg kicks (fight with a narrow stance). Gaethje was coming forward too much and trying to extend the exchanges. Ilia has the tools to make this very competitive by making Max come to him & circling, jabbing, and forcing Max to adopt a narrow stance. (I’m a huge Max fan btw)
I think you are intentionally reading the stats wrong for some reason:
re: Justin outlanded Yair’s 2 worst rounds against Max (rounds 3 and 4). But that’s very minor.
There was a single Justin round where landed more than 20 strikes (35), while Yair had four (37/42/24/36). Justin had 12 strikes in the first round, 18 in the last round; Yair had 37 in the first round (triple), 36 in the last round (double), so he started more effective and he ended more effective.
Yair was surprising Max way more often than Justin because he is so wild and unpredictable with an unlimited arsenal of techniques to try if not being pressured. Justin hits way harder but has a very predictable rhythm and looks to land the same strikes off the same set-ups.
Max arguably won the 2nd fight against Volk. He clearly lost the 1st & 3rd. Also minor.
You said that the most damage Max took in other fights was DP 2 and Volk 1, but Volk 3 is where he got his ass-kicked and lost every round, with a massive gash on his face early. The first fight he got out-pointed with a lot of leg kicks and movement if my recollection serves me right, so definitely don't think he took more damage - UFC stats show Volk landed 157 in the first fight, 199 in the third (25% more) and just looking at their faces after each fight shows it (though Max hides damage well).
The only fight in which leg kicks played a major role was the 1st fight with Volk. Max arguably won the 2nd and Volk’s gameplan in the 3rd fight is still going over heads …
Agree to disagree, to me Yair was tearing up Max on all levels with kicks and Max was like "fuck this shit" and just pressured/clinched/wrestled/beat the piss out of him up close and personal when he could. But it eventually wore on him to fight like that because he normally doesn't really wrestle/grapple for extended periods and he was in a real dog-fight late in that fight because of it.
Biggest reason why Gaethje was losing out of the gate; bigger than the broken nose & eye pokes, was that Max is much more beatable when you make him come to you.
That's a very good point, Max had a great game plan of drawing Justin to him where he is so predictable with his overhand right and lead low kick (thrown with almost no set-up typically).
That being said - it looks like the tactic of throwing spinning jumping back kicks when Justin ducks into a shell-guard was the brilliant technique/tactic that turned the fight in his favor to the point where it highly limited Justin's ability to take damage (which completely compromises how he fights - if he can't take the initial damage to land his own then he turns into a dumb brawler, which is how the fight ended).
It goes over heads because you have to be elite to utilize this gameplan. Ortega at the time he fought Max, for example, wasn’t at the level; thus Max looked great coming forward. But Gaethje could’ve fought much better and Ilia should fight much better, if they make Max come to them. Volk’s 3rd fight is still relevant. The Gaethje that jabbed Fiziev to death in the latter rounds, could’ve done much better circling & jabbing. Ilia looks to have the necessary footwork (and Gaethje showed it against Khabib & Fiziev).
Ortega is nowhere near the technical striker to be able to pull off a stand-up fight with Max, that was suicide from the get-go.
Gaethje doesn't know how to jab until late in fights, it's kind of his achilles heel - without it he just has a low-kick with almost no set-up from range, so he has limited weapons to draw an opponent to him. But he's a lot like Poirer, late in their careers they became really solid back-foot counter fighters. Very unrefined approach when leading though, especially early in the fight neither guy wants to just touch guys like Max, it has to be all power all the ,time (especially Justin).
Max isn’t as susceptible to leg kicks as people think. He showed in the 2nd fight with Volk, that he can shorten his stance, check, and has unreal toughness. But where Max is still vulnerable is building off his jab if you have great footwork, a great jab, and he has to respect your leg kicks (fight with a narrow stance). Gaethje was coming forward too much and trying to extend the exchanges. Ilia has the tools to make this very competitive by making Max come to him & circling, jabbing, and forcing Max to adopt a narrow stance. (I’m a huge Max fan btw).
I don't think anyone ever felt he was super-suspestible to leg kicks; out of all the prior fights he was in he got mostly out-pointed early (later slightly crippled) by Volk's low kicks and then Yair was kicking him legs/body/head non-stop like a mule for 2 rounds so he took the easiest route to beating his ass.
Out of these 3 fighters (Volk/Yair/Justin) I'd say Justin has the hardest leg kicks by far, but he's also kind of the worst at setting them up by far. Volk is very fast and incredibly crafty, tons of feints and throwaway strikes to land them, with good defense and pocket exits to not get countered. Yair is every faster and despite not being as good with the reads and set-ups as Volk can just overwhelm guys with the insane speed and diversity of techniques. Justin is far slower than both those guys and it's like the same telegraphed step-in low calf kick, so Max can utilize a lot of defenses when he knows the timing/technique/target area.