In his prime, the Gustafson fight you can give Smith 20 25 30 % chance. He was very tough and athletic. Good striking and better grappling then Pereira. Now you can give him like 2%. In his prime he has strong grappling but is a striker who fights well if it ends up on the ground. He isn't a takedwn machine. Nowadays he lost his edge and 30% of his athletic abilities. His milage is like 60 fights and 18 losses or something. His leg, muscle mass everything detoriated from wars. I expect him to leave the rankings within 1-2 years.