How do you research?

[ApplesVild]

I'm curious what everyones process is when they are researching upcoming cards.

Do you look at every fight on every card or do you have a select few that you see value in?

Do you watch tape before odds are released or do you only look at fights once you know the odds and feel there may be value?

Is it all down to the tape study or do you look at stats, precious fights, take into account potential growth/decline, outside influences ect and how do you account for this?

How much tape do you watch?

For me generally I wont always tape every fight on every card, sometimes I just can't put myself through it, for example with low level WMMA, there may be value there at times but it's such a slog to watch and it's so unpredictable it's not worth it for me.

I will watch tape without odds being available for fights where I have a decent idea of where the odds will sit, and something I have been doing more is looking ahead to future cards and parleying across several cards.

What's your system, what works for you?

 

[Sauna]

I believe in working less to make more. I don't do tape systematically but if I feel I need to see a fight or if there is a fight I would like to see, I will watch it.

I check out stats from few sites and if it is a chick fight, I go to the WMMA lovers number one resource: Instagram.

I usually know how the market caps the fight and where the value is before the odds are released.

Of course, the cards are full of guys I never even heard of and I use to look them up. But after years of betting, the data collected says that I shouldn't. So it's just big names and WMMA for me.

 

[ApplesVild]

I do a lot better on cards with bigger names where I already have a good idea of how they fight and their strengths and weaknesses.

I guess that is part of the reason there is good profit to be made in mma betting, because casual fans wont really know who someone like Corey Sandhagen is, but to me Sandhagen has been a 'big' name for a while.

 

[Oblivian]

Imagination #crewman

 

[Naught2Sixty]

#yolo

 

[Oblivian]

#yolo

This is a pretty good representation of my Contender Series research process.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

This is a pretty good representation of everyones Contender Series research process.

Fixed.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Honestly?

I have a Word document on my laptop with meticulous notes on every fighter notable enough to get a betting line following a strict macro, along with the fights I've seen them in. I don't count a fight as "watched" unless I've taken notes on it, which often requires numerous pauses, rewinds, etc. I've been writing in this document since May of last year, and it's presently 430 pages long.

When there is a line I'm interested in, I will watch as much tape as I can (the amount differs based on various factors, but 3-5 fights is good, including the two most recent ones, if I'm completely unfamiliar with the fighter), and if I have already seen their most recent fights, will rewatch fights, either partially or in their entirety. (Although this time without the note-taking) There are fights from just last year I've already watched 3+ times.

Yes, I take into account factors other than tape, although I think of them more as "uncertainties" to as opposed to the more certain, tangible information I get from the tape. Too many uncertainties and I don't bet a line.

I'm also always trying to learn more about MMA itself. I've done boxing, karate, and jits, but I don't know as much about wrestling or Muy Thai. I try to watch as much instructional tape as I can find on all of those, from executing specific moves correctly (so I can gauge how technically fighters do them), to trends in the current MMA meta. BJJ Scout has some good videos, for instance.

I'm very critical of all my bets and try to "judge" what the fight looked like in terms of capping after the fight, whether it differed from my own predictions, and if so, why.

There are also aspects of betting itself (relative amounts, what props to bet, when, and how much) that require learning and analysis, and is a separate form of "research". Learning to maintain control of your emotions when deciding how much to pre-bet, how much to live-bet, and not chasing is important, too. I've read lots and lots of articles about all of these, some of which I agree with, and some of which I don't.

....That being said, when it comes to DWTCS, I would probably have equal or better success flipping a coin.

 

[burge13]

Honestly?

I have a Word document on my laptop with meticulous notes on every fighter notable enough to get a betting line following a strict macro, along with the fights I've seen them in. I don't count a fight as "watched" unless I've taken notes on it, which often requires numerous pauses, rewinds, etc. I've been writing in this document since May of last year, and it's presently 430 pages long.

When there is a line I'm interested in, I will watch as much tape as I can (the amount differs based on various factors, but 3-5 fights is good, including the two most recent ones, if I'm completely unfamiliar with the fighter), and if I have already seen their most recent fights, will rewatch fights, either partially or in their entirety. (Although this time without the note-taking) There are fights from just last year I've already watched 3+ times.

Yes, I take into account factors other than tape, although I think of them more as "uncertainties" to as opposed to the more certain, tangible information I get from the tape. Too many uncertainties and I don't bet a line.

I'm also always trying to learn more about MMA itself. I've done boxing, karate, and jits, but I don't know as much about wrestling or Muy Thai. I try to watch as much instructional tape as I can find on all of those, from executing specific moves correctly (so I can gauge how technically fighters do them), to trends in the current MMA meta. BJJ Scout has some good videos, for instance.

I'm very critical of all my bets and try to "judge" what the fight looked like in terms of capping after the fight, whether it differed from my own predictions, and if so, why.

There are also aspects of betting itself (relative amounts, what props to bet, when, and how much) that require learning and analysis, and is a separate form of "research". Learning to maintain control of your emotions when deciding how much to pre-bet, how much to live-bet, and not chasing is important, too. I've read lots and lots of articles about all of these, some of which I agree with, and some of which I don't.

....That being said, when it comes to DWTCS, I would probably have equal or better success flipping a coin.

Is going through this worth it for the money? If youre spending 10 hours tape a week youd want to be making at least $200 for your work (in a country where you dont pay tax on betting wins).

I try to not make it feel like a job. Read here at work, have a good memory for whats happened in fights and largely contrarian. Happy with minimal profit given my minimal work put in, I just could not imagine watching some of these shitty fights for "fun"...

 

[ApplesVild]

Is going through this worth it for the money? If youre spending 10 hours tape a week youd want to be making at least $200 for your work (in a country where you dont pay tax on betting wins).

I try to not make it feel like a job. Read here at work, have a good memory for whats happened in fights and largely contrarian. Happy with minimal profit given my minimal work put in, I just could not imagine watching some of these shitty fights for "fun"...

You can easy make more than the equivalent of $200 a week over the course of a year for sure, some people here will probably up 5 figurs by the end of the year.

 

[Roads55]

yeah for me you have to balance the time you put in with the money you make, over the last couple years tape is much more important as there are so many fighters now who are new or who i don't remember compared to a few years back when there were many more familiar names that hadn't retired yet, that along with books getting sharper, has changed how i research. right now i usually just focus on taping a couple of fights i am most interested in betting wise and there's usually a few fights on a card i feel comfortable enough with the fighters that i don't need to tape much (sometimes highlight vids are enough to jog your memory). I'm very busy with other sports also atm so when i have more time i will do tape on more fights each card to hopefully get to the point where my database of current active fighters is comparable to where it was a few years ago.

Each year (or more often) I think it's very important to evaluate your betting preparations and the all the work that goes into it as the mma-betting landscape is changing rapidly, it's currently experiencing a mini explosion in interest as mma is a sport very popular with young people, and as the years go by more and more people are gambling on it.

 

[ApplesVild]

I have had to accept that betting guys you like or want to win isn't a good idea. Either avoid the fight or just accept that your favourite fighters may not be the best fighters. I think Lawler/Colby was a good example of this, everyone loves Lawler but I think everyone knew that he wasn't winning... Didn't stop me betting him.

 

[Xuh]

just big names and WMMA

This is best way

 

[nebulousned]

Is going through this worth it for the money? If youre spending 10 hours tape a week youd want to be making at least $200 for your work (in a country where you dont pay tax on betting wins).

I try to not make it feel like a job. Read here at work, have a good memory for whats happened in fights and largely contrarian. Happy with minimal profit given my minimal work put in, I just could not imagine watching some of these shitty fights for "fun"...

this is a problem i have

i know im not the best bettor so i dont want to use serious cash - but at the same time, if i win 20 for a fight where i spent an hour watching tape on it, it's just not worth it

i see this as a fun hobby, and if i continue to improve ill start putting down more serious cash - if not, ahh well, just keep it enjoyable and dont invest too much time and money into it

 

[ApplesVild]

this is a problem i have

i know im not the best bettor so i dont want to use serious cash - but at the same time, if i win 20 for a fight where i spent an hour watching tape on it, it's just not worth it

i see this as a fun hobby, and if i continue to improve ill start putting down more serious cash - if not, ahh well, just keep it enjoyable and dont invest too much time and money into it

Just don't cash out and build your bankroll, if you're consistently winning it will build over time.

Many of you use compound interest?

 

[piglord]

Is going through this worth it for the money? If youre spending 10 hours tape a week youd want to be making at least $200 for your work (in a country where you dont pay tax on betting wins).

I try to not make it feel like a job. Read here at work, have a good memory for whats happened in fights and largely contrarian. Happy with minimal profit given my minimal work put in, I just could not imagine watching some of these shitty fights for "fun"...

this shit is a job for me, pure and simple. but i don't have a beta male manlet boss telling me what to do, i can wake up at 4pm every day, wear sweat pants and drink as much as i like - so it's a pretty damn good job.

 

[burge13]

You can easy make more than the equivalent of $200 a week over the course of a year for sure, some people here will probably up 5 figurs by the end of the year.

Some people do for sure. Some significantly more. I'm saying if you're going to go through all this effort it's pointless with $10 units or if you're not getting great results. All that boring tape for little money would fee like a job that pays less...

 

[burge13]

this shit is a job for me, pure and simple. but i don't have a beta male manlet boss telling me what to do, i can wake up at 4pm every day, wear sweat pants and drink as much as i like - so it's a pretty damn good job.

As much as i hate working for 'the man' I'd go barney sitting at home every day. Work is as much social as it is a job, just getting social interaction is important IMO

Unless I can make 'fuck you money' betting it will always be a side gig for extra beer money. I'm not even sure I'd enjoy betting professionally. Stressing your mortgage on a judges decision doesn't sound like fun but if people enjoy the hustle more power to them!

 

[Sadistics]

Stressing your mortgage on a judges decision doesn't sound like fun but if people enjoy the hustle more power to them!

I'm pretty sure you can't get a mortgage as a professional handicapper. Hell @Oblivian was saying just having transactions with betting sites could hurt you in that regard.

 

[burge13]

I'm pretty sure you can't get a mortgage as a professional handicapper. Hell @Oblivian was saying just having transactions with betting sites could hurt you in that regard.

Depends where you live. No issue here

But yeah even if that is the case, stressing on rent money on a judges decision? No thanks