I think
@FreddieRoachsVoice has the correct read on this fight. Not sure about Jon winning 9/10 times as Fedor was faster and more powerful than any of Jon's former opponents but Jon should be able to get takedowns consistently and avoid most of Fedor's looping punches with his reach and footwork.
Jon via clear cut UD
Well looking at Fedor's record objectively, how many people did he beat in Pride who were even well rounded in 2 areas (like Frank Shamrock) let alone in
all facets of martial arts like Jones?
He beat a lot of
specialists (being generous for some of them) but because Fedor himself was well rounded, he could always exploit their weakness. What is he going to exploit on Jones? He can't take him down like he did when he was actually facing a threat standing like Cro Cop and Semmy.
In regards to the wrestlers he faced, they were from the old, old UFC with zero submission defense and he was still controlled by Coleman for a long time before getting the armbar. Would he get it against Jones in a time period where offensive submissions are nearly extinct in high level mma? I say 0/10 times.
The fight I would say is the best indicator of how this fight would go is the Lindland fight which was very much in Fedor's prime. Fedor was busted open almost immediately and being ragdolled by a much smaller, lesser MMA-Wrestler (I am aware of Lindland's amateur credentials) than Jones and Fedor only won due to cheating via holding onto the ropes.
Would Fedor be able to fend off the much bigger, stronger Jones who also has 100000 times the striking of Lindland? I honestly don't see it happening at all. I'm a Fedor fan but it's unfair to compare 2 guys from 2 completely different eras because Jones has every advantage here and it wouldn't even be close IMO.