Jon Jones went from a -1200 to a -800 favorite.

if (I SAID IF!) jones is off the ped's, he might look like shite and lose.
 
Even at -800 I'd stay off this fight. You can't make any money betting on Jones, and you're giving it away betting on Smith.
 
Pulsing odds - nothing to see here , move along.
 
The way betting odds work is they make them to try and get the same amount of ppl betting on one side as on the other. That way, regardless of who wins/loses the bets break even and the bookie makes money off the "juice" (small percentage charged by the bookie). If to many ppl are placing money on an underdog, they adjust the odds to get more ppl betting the other way to even the bets out. Thats whats happened here, most likely. it doesnt necessarily mean anything as far as who the odds makers think will win.
 
wilKO said:
My advice:

Take out a loan. $10,000 Or so. Put it on Jones. You will only win a small portion but it is impossible to lose.
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Your reality : you won’t bet a FRACTION of 10k or anything at all

Horrible idea to bet that kind of $ on horrible odds.

Post your bet slip then.
 
-800 to -1200 isn't actually a big shift. Only 3% difference in terms of implied probability.

-800 = 89% chance of victory

-1200 = 92% chance of victory
 
wigglestick said:
I put 90 on Woodley at -175, now hes -145. FML

I noticed Jones was -1300 actually, now hes -800. IDK I guess alot of people were putting a flyer on smith, its better then putting 130$ to win 10 on Jones lol
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The time for smith to fight jones was to replace gus...jones not having fought for quite awhile..that would have been the time to fight him...now, after fighting gus and immediately going through another training camp, he's going to be in top form...all rust gone..
 
wilKO said:
My advice:

Take out a loan. $10,000 Or so. Put it on Jones. You will only win a small portion but it is impossible to lose.
Click to expand...
He lost one. Also almost lost to Gus. I would say "almost impossible".
 
WhosTheBoss said:
Your reality : you won’t bet a FRACTION of 10k or anything at all

Horrible idea to bet that kind of $ on horrible odds.

Post your bet slip then.
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Why is -800 horrible odds/ Pretty favorable line for JJ really. Just because lines are long doesn't mean it's a bad bet.
 
grappler4200 said:
Why is -800 horrible odds/ Pretty favorable line for JJ really. Just because lines are long doesn't mean it's a bad bet.
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Because it’s hard to be profitable for the risk IMO at -800

I think jones should win. But man I’d be sick to my stomach betting $800 to just win $100
 
WhosTheBoss said:
Because it’s hard to be profitable for the risk IMO at -800

I think jones should win. But man I’d be sick to my stomach betting $800 to just win $100
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Still doesn't make it a bad bat. If you cap JJ at 95% getting 89% implied value, Smith at 5% only getting comeback for 16.67% implied probability is a horrible bet.
 
Put Jones into a ton of parlays, including a few NBA parlays that I've already won, so he's the last leg (which I believe to be the safest bet)

Don't let me down Jonny boi
 
kalabula said:
The way betting odds work is they make them to try and get the same amount of ppl betting on one side as on the other. That way, regardless of who wins/loses the bets break even and the bookie makes money off the "juice" (small percentage charged by the bookie). If to many ppl are placing money on an underdog, they adjust the odds to get more ppl betting the other way to even the bets out. Thats whats happened here, most likely. it doesnt necessarily mean anything as far as who the odds makers think will win.
Click to expand...

almost correct. they try to get the odds to get the same amount of money spread on each side. there will be a lot more people on jones here for example
 
CBohl said:
Am I missing something here?
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Yes. You are missing something.

The implied odds of -1200 is 12/13 = 92%
The implied odds of -800 is 8/9 = 89%

While -800 and -1200 feel visually like big differences, it's actually a tiny difference. By comparison, the difference between -200 and -300 is the difference between 66% and 75%.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Yes. You are missing something.

The implied odds of -1200 is 12/13 = 92%
The implied odds of -800 is 8/9 = 89%

While -800 and -1200 feel visually like big differences, it's actually a tiny difference. By comparison, the difference between -200 and -300 is the difference between 66% and 75%.
Click to expand...
damn.
<mma4> this dude knows his stuff.
 
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