Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 1, 2016.
huge momentum with the warriors
Not feeling good about this, guys
Ignore my last post. Go dubs
solid LB night for me. plus hit them ml pregame as parlay fodder
SJ lb lost that sucked. Should've arbed it oh well. Still up on the day thanks to the Warriors!
KD should not have done this:
LOL remember I said the books had it about right? GS -7 and they win by 8.
No matter, I just destroyed 5d tonight. Hit my series prop bet at +230 when they were down 3-1. I bet OKC first 6 minutes and first quarter tonight and hit both of those. Hit GS first 6 minutes of 2nd half and hit that. Then bet 4 props:
S. Adams under 19 pts + rebounds--won (he had 18 at pretty much the start of the 4th quarter and didn't get another}
KD under 31.5 pts
Westbrook under 46.5 pts+rebounds+assists
Curry over 37.5 pts + assists
So (not counting that series bet that was made earlier) I made 7 bets on tonight's game and went 7-0. Just sick. Don't have games like that very often where it goes pretty much just like you think it will.
Dub fucking nation. Interesting to see what the Finals line is
I saw a futures line early in both conference finals. Cavs were +250 if they met up with GS in the finals. Assuming that will stay close to the same but could be closer since Cavs have more rest? Not sure.
Already up on 5d.
KInda think the value is on Cleveland. GS just used a lot of energy to win that series while Cleveland did go 6 but cruised in game 6 so definitely expended much less. They are fully healthy and you gotta think Lebron on a mission. I'd still favor the W's ever so slightly but I think I might bet the Cavs hoping they steal one of the first 2 at GS and then arb out and just freeroll.
Not sure yet.
Idk I'd expect less. Maybe -150/+120 because GS was pushed in this series while Cavs practically coasted. For sure I'd bet +250 if they posted that
Wow crazy lines. Thank you
5d has Cavs +190. You guys liking that?
edit: oops mkess beat me to it.
I'd honestly wait till after game 1 to take Cleveland. This long rest might not be good for them while GS is just finding their groove
between yesterday's UFC and all my GS series bets coming in today, im up ~30u this weekend
Yep. I just bet it. Ideally Cleveland gets one of the first 2 in GS and I'll just freeroll hopefully. If not I'm okay with this price regardless.
I can tell you from first hand experience that you're betting mindset is going to keep you from being a long term profitable bettor. You have to stick to a play through thick n thin if you think it has value end of discussion! The spontaneous "bail out" opportunities to hedge will end up costing you +EV profits in the grand scheme of things. One of the basics fallacies that newbs fall in the trap of doing is covering an initial play when they see a no lose opportunity. I see hedging as a worthwhile proposition only if you're betting thousands or else it's simply a waste of time and costing +EV.
Take for example myself. I took GSW to win against the Thunder. Then through careful capping analysis, I discovered even more value when GSW were down 3-1, when every square from here to timbuktu thought the Dubs were done for. Ripe for the taking I quickly placed a few more "value" units on GSW at odds of +242 as well as my initial GSW series bet. Could I have hedged before game 7? You're darn tootin right I could have, but by why cost myself large sums of +EV monies for short term pittance. You can't be an emotional type of bettor nor one who likes to flip flop. These are the irrational dullards which the bookies welcome with open arms.
If you're in this for the long journey then you have to be cold, calculated and deliberate. It's the only way you'll overcome the vig. Too many have tried to challenge the bookies thinking they have an edge, but in the end failed due to a wide number of factors.
Well Jeez Barry I don't know what to say. So I searched your posts for the number 1000 and some of these came up and you've said more than enough:
Go Fuck yourself
Following a baseball guy who I respect from podcasts and I know is a well respected bettor by other baseball sharps whose analysis I follow. Missed his early game plays but tailed him on these:
COL -1.5 (he recommended ml but it was like .30c more juiced so I just took the 1.5 instead)
Bangthebook podcast by any chance? That dude has been fade material so much recently
Laughed my fucking ass off at "I did a credit card cash advance for 1000" loll
Separate names with a comma.