Official UFC 195 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[EzFlyer]

Results. not a good start to 2016

Spoiler

My UFC 195 bets (I thiiiiink I'm done):

Straight up:
Condit $300 @ 1.952 // $250 @ 2.04 // $836 in offline bets -$1,386
Arlovski $100 @ 2.95 -$100
Larkin $150 @ 2.98 // $150 @ 2.96 // $100 @ 3.25 -$400
Ortega $400 @ 1.518 +$207
Sims $150 @ 1.80 -$150

Kanehara $200 @ 5.25 // $50 @ 5.50 -$250
Ansaroff $100 @ 3.30 -$100
Dober $200 @ 2.40 // $150 @ 2.60 +$520
Morono $50 @ 3.39 +$120

Duffy $400 @ 1.546 -$400
Soto $300 @ 1.952 // $150 @ 2.04 // $100 @ 2.13 -$550
Westscott $250 @ 1.671 +$168

Over/under:

Noke/Morono u2.5 $300 @ 2.60 -$300
Garcia/Westscott u1.5 $100 @ 2.30 +$130
Larkin/Tumenov o1.5 $400 @ 1.657 +$263
Arlovski/Miocic o1.5 $400 @ 1.546 -$400
Condit/Lawler o4.5 $150 @ 2.25 +$188

total stake: $5,800
result: -$2,440

meh

chin up, get 'em next time ><

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) think Larkin won the fight

Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) also thought Condit won

 

[EzFlyer]

Next card seems to be pretty interesting, my initial picks are;

Dillashaw
Pettis
Browne
Cote
Taisumov
Felder
Boetsch
Hettes
Latifi
Font
Edilov

Hopefully we will get some nice lines.

wait, is browne-mitrione still on? why did i think browne was out? i swear i heard this somewhere

 

[Subli]

ufc 195 results

Spoiler

ufc 195 Net: +2,138.18

lawler: 0 for 233.55
O3.0: 115 for 75
O4.5: 57.50 for 50
draw: 2 for 300
condit: 0 for 64.89
condit SUB: 25 for 180.75

miocic -192: 192 for 100
miocic DEC: 40 for 102

larkin +230: 100 for 230
larkin DEC: 17 for 103.70
tumenov DEC: 33 for 115.50

ortega -127: 130 for 102.50
ortega ITD: 15 parlays
ortega RD 3: 27 for 256.50
ortega RD 2: 48 for 236
brandao RD 1: 25 for 181.25

trujillo +191: 50.01 for 95.60
U1.5: 50 for 62.50 - 15 parlays
sims KO: 50 for 145

kanehara +324: 76.50 for 248.23
kanehara +3.5: 15 parlays

morono +290: 105 for 304
morono SUB: 20 for 183.40
ITD: 15 parlays

ansaroff +353: 45 for 159
DEC: 50 parlays

dober +160: 100 for 160
dober DEC: 40 for 98.80
DEC: 50 parlays

poirier +170: 300 for 514.25
poirier ITD: 25 for 108.50
poirier +3.5: 15 parlays

tanaka -115: 172.50 for 150
tanaka DEC: 15 parlays
DEC: 50 parlays

westcott -149: 179 for 120
westcott ITD: 15 parlays
westcott RD 1: 20 for 50

props
DEC U5.5: 32 for 49.60
DEC U4.5: 10 for 38.60
DEC U3.5: 5 for 53.50
DEC U2.5: 2 for 66.50
DEC U1.5: 1 for 180
FOTN: poirier-duffy - 25 for 150

parlays
25 for 30.41 kish-ansaroff DEC -195 & holtzman-dober DEC -215
25 for 36.46 kish-ansaroff DEC -195 & soto-tanaka DEC -160
25 for 34.52 holtzman-dober DEC -215 & soto-tanaka DEC -160
35 RR for (paid +97.09) 479.54: TS/ATU1.5/ ortegaITD/ kane+3.5/ KNAMITD/ DP+3.5/ tanakaDEC/ westcottITD
---

huge start to 2016, love it.

also won 1,000 on draftkings and kountermove (like 900/100 respectively, but that stuff doesn't count for my mma betting)

20 units ?!?! Awesome!

UFC 195 Results- Killer way to start the New Year!

Spoiler

Epic fight in the main event. Even my stupid not exactly six fights go distance prop hit. Almost hit that big parlay too. But the main event with Robbie winning by split decision specifically made my night. Killer way to start the New Year.

UFC 195 Results Risk $3593.50

Robbie Lawler (-135) vs Carlos Condit $270.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Robbie Lawler +5½ points (-175) $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00= $100.00
Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit starts round 4 (-161) $161.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit Over 4½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Robbie Lawler wins by 5 round decision (+201) $50.00 for $100.50= $100.50
Robbie Lawler wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+831) $15.00 for $124.65= $124.65

Andrei Arlovski (+200) vs Stipe Miocic $100.00 for $200.00= -$100.00
Andrei Arlovski wins by TKO/KO (+505) $20.00 for $101.00= -$20.00

Albert Tumenov (-195) vs Lorenz Larkin $195.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Albert Tumenov/Lorenz Larkin Over 1½ (-148) $148.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Albert Tumenov wins by TKO/KO (+120) $50.00 for $60.00= -$50.00
Lorenz Larkin wins by 3 round decision (+440) $25.00 for $110.00= -$25.00

Brian Ortega/Diego Brandao won’t go 3 round distance (-170) $170.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Brian Ortega wins inside distance (+115) $200.00 for $230.00= $230.00
Diego Brandao wins in round 1 (+650) $30.00 for $195.00= -$30.00

Tony Sims (+115) vs Abel Trujillo $100.00 for $115.00= -$100.00
Tony Sims wins inside distance (+248) $30.00 for $74.40= -$30.00

Masanori Kanehara (+400) vs Michael McDonald $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
Masanori Kanehara wins by 3 round decision (+600) $40.00 for $240.00= -$40.00
Kyle Noke/Alex Morono Under 2½ (+158) $100.00 for $158.00= -$100.00
Kyle Noke wins inside distance (+225) $50.00 for $112.50= -$50.00
Alex Morono Live In-Play (+400) vs Kyle Noke $25.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Justine Kish/Nina Ansaroff goes 3 round distance (-195) $97.50 for $50.00= $50.00
Nina Ansaroff (+230) vs Justine Kish $50.00 for $115.00= -$50.00
Nina Ansaroff wins by submission (+1170) $10.00 fo r$117.00= -$10.00
Drew Dober (+140) vs Scott Holtzman $100.00 for $140.00= $140.00
Drew Dober wins by 3 round decision (+245) $40.00 for $98.00= $98.00
Drew Dober Live In-Play (-160) vs Scott Holtzman $160.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Joseph Duffy/Dustin Poirier won’t start round 3 (-157) $100.00 for $63.69= -$100.00
Joseph Duffy wins in round 1 (+225) $25.00 for $56.25= -$25.00
Joe Soto (+115) vs Michinori Tanaka $40.00 for $46.00= -$40.00
Joe Soto/Michinori Tanaka Over 2½ (-180) $72.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Sheldon Wescott (-145) vs Edgar Garcia $145.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Sheldon Westcott wins by submission (+205) $25.00 for $51.25= -$25.00
Sheldon Westcott wins in round 1 (+325) $35.00 for $113.75= $113.75

Fights to go distance under 5½ (+155) $40.00 for $62.00= -$40.00
Fights to go distance under 4½ (+386) $25.00 for $96.50= -$25.00
Fights to go distance under 3½ (+1070) $15.00 for $160.50= -$15.00
Fights to go distance under 2½ (+3325) $10.00 for $332.50= -$10.00
Fights to go distance under 1½ (+18000) $5.00 for $900.00= -$5.00

Not exactly six fights go distance (-375) $375.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Robbie Lawler/Carlos Condit FOTN award winner (+200) $25.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Kyle Noke wins Fastest KO (+2700) $10.00 for $270.00= -$10.00
Sheldon Westcott wins Fastest SUB (+435) $10.00 for $43.50= -$10.00

Parlay:
Kish/Ansaroff goes 3 round distance (-205) + Kyle Noke wins inside distance (+225) + Michael McDonald wins inside distance (-145) + Sims/Trujillo won’t go 3 round distance (-215) + Ortega/Brandao won’t go 3 round distance (-200) $50.00 for $847.76= -$50.00
-----
Total Profit= $1136.90

11 units ?!!? Great lol

 

[Subli]

Early bids for UFC FN 81 ?

I'll be on Cruz if he gets anywhere close to +200

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

ufc 195 results

Spoiler

ufc 195 Net: +2,138.18

lawler: 0 for 233.55
O3.0: 115 for 75
O4.5: 57.50 for 50
draw: 2 for 300
condit: 0 for 64.89
condit SUB: 25 for 180.75

miocic -192: 192 for 100
miocic DEC: 40 for 102

larkin +230: 100 for 230
larkin DEC: 17 for 103.70
tumenov DEC: 33 for 115.50

ortega -127: 130 for 102.50
ortega ITD: 15 parlays
ortega RD 3: 27 for 256.50
ortega RD 2: 48 for 236
brandao RD 1: 25 for 181.25

trujillo +191: 50.01 for 95.60
U1.5: 50 for 62.50 - 15 parlays
sims KO: 50 for 145

kanehara +324: 76.50 for 248.23
kanehara +3.5: 15 parlays

morono +290: 105 for 304
morono SUB: 20 for 183.40
ITD: 15 parlays

ansaroff +353: 45 for 159
DEC: 50 parlays

dober +160: 100 for 160
dober DEC: 40 for 98.80
DEC: 50 parlays

poirier +170: 300 for 514.25
poirier ITD: 25 for 108.50
poirier +3.5: 15 parlays

tanaka -115: 172.50 for 150
tanaka DEC: 15 parlays
DEC: 50 parlays

westcott -149: 179 for 120
westcott ITD: 15 parlays
westcott RD 1: 20 for 50

props
DEC U5.5: 32 for 49.60
DEC U4.5: 10 for 38.60
DEC U3.5: 5 for 53.50
DEC U2.5: 2 for 66.50
DEC U1.5: 1 for 180
FOTN: poirier-duffy - 25 for 150

parlays
25 for 30.41 kish-ansaroff DEC -195 & holtzman-dober DEC -215
25 for 36.46 kish-ansaroff DEC -195 & soto-tanaka DEC -160
25 for 34.52 holtzman-dober DEC -215 & soto-tanaka DEC -160
35 RR for (paid +97.09) 479.54: TS/ATU1.5/ ortegaITD/ kane+3.5/ KNAMITD/ DP+3.5/ tanakaDEC/ westcottITD
---

huge start to 2016, love it.

also won 1,000 on draftkings and kountermove (like 900/100 respectively, but that stuff doesn't count for my mma betting)

Dude I remember you being heavy on condit.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Dude I remember you being heavy on condit.

He was, but he played Lawler +3xx, +4xx while live betting

 

[vkram]

wait, is browne-mitrione still on? why did i think browne was out? i swear i heard this somewhere

Pretty sure it's still on, was just a rumour based on a wiki edit and 1 random Twitter account saying he was out, nothing from the UFC.

 

[blokeybloke]

Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) think Larkin won the fight

Cormier and Woodley (and Florian?) also thought Condit won

Headhunters lucked out with the judges tonight.

 

[ClosetVitorFan]

He was, but he played Lawler +3xx, +4xx while live betting

Damn. I've never live bet before. But I hear good things from it from people in this thread. Like people that are heavy on one fighter switch and turn what would be a losing venture into a profitable one.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Damn. I've never live bet before. But I hear good things from it from people in this thread. Like people that are heavy on one fighter switch and turn what would be a losing venture into a profitable one.

Yup, that's exactly what he did

 

[null]

Damn. I've never live bet before. But I hear good things from it from people in this thread. Like people that are heavy on one fighter switch and turn what would be a losing venture into a profitable one.

Live betting is great to use. Understand however, it can work against you too when you bet the other side of a pre-fight bet that you thought was going to lose based on the momentum of the fight and then your original bets wins after all and you gave all your profit away with your live hedge.

 

[Sham5916910]

Terrible night for me down just under £1200. Lost over £800 lb by throwing over £700 on Noke at end of r2 like an idiot. I will not be lb in future ive never done that great lb whereas pre bets have always been my money winner so will stick to them.

The parlay i was going to make was KG + McDonald + Miocic @ evens. I bailed when KG pulled out as the return dropped to about -175 and i like as close to evens as poss. Another lesson learned should have just taken McDonald + Miocic @ aforementioned odds and taken a smaller payout than normal in a difficult event for betting.

I had £425 on Larkin and i think it showed all the value was on him. I thought he won with all the damage he inflicted but maybe i was biased. Do not regret that bet just glad i halved the amount i had on him!

Luckily Miocic won to close a parlay and win me around £50 odd and he kept a £300 parlay with Pettis alive.

Grats to all winners.

 

[Mortex2]

Forum died last night. Down $200. Live bet Condit R1 @ +110 and much to my surprise he lost. I like Robbie, but if anything that fight was a draw. Making one hooray in last round does not change the outcome of the fight. I guess if judges see it as evens, it will always favor the champ. The fight was sick, but I thought Condit won that fight. Bet365 was giving Lawler +350 at the start of R5, so they thought he won too.

 

[Johananwtf]

I lost about 47 euro this night, everything really turned out so bad. My last shot was lawler vs condit to end in a ko/tko, and i that last round i thought i had it... but no. I feel so fu*king sorry for Condit, he was the winner and i even think lawler know that too.

Anyways, 18 January i need to make some money!

 

[Mortex2]

Well, I made my money back on Dota 2 today

 

[Ballsaque]

Larkin got his ass whooped. No argument for him winning imo, try watching the fight without sound on. Tumenov is just an animal, would love to see him fight Lawler.

 

[LayonJesus]

We only use 1 unit for all bets to calculate ROI. All prices are current from 5dimes so I may have done better before movement or worse but current lines are the correct thing to post.

Main Card

Lawler -105 2 Units

Lawler has shown very strong wrestling skills in his last few and has significantly more power then Condit. He can dictate range extremely well and land power shots in all areas of the fight.

Moicic -212 1 Unit

Better wrestler with improving skills who is clearly talented. That Mir fight doesnt give me much hope in Andrei

Larkin +225 3 Units

Larkin is the most dynamic striker in the division and has great takedown defense. This line is nuts.

Brandao +165 1 Unit

Talented fighter who has beat the better competition over the last couple. If he puts it together he dominates Ortega.

Trujillo +135 1 Unit

The better fighter who has faced the better competition with better tools. Again if he shows up he wins.

Undercard

Morono +260 2 Units
Dober +160 1 Unit
Poirier +161 2 Units

The much better striker should have the advantage right off the bat with his length and skill. Duffy needs this fight on the ground and I dont see how he gets it there.

Soto +113 2 Units

+10.37u on the night.

 

[Gametheory]

This year, I will starting posting my bets again.

I had a good first event of the year.
Larkin won his fight, but at the same thought I thought Condit had edged Lawler.
Shame I freerolled Duffee and didn't let my Poirier bet ride.

 

[Gametheory]

What about Browne over Mitrione? Mitrione has a great chin and better striking technique, but he finds a way to lose very often.
I actually think Browne would dominate on the ground, but I doubt he will take it there.

Not betting Dillashaw or Alvarez.