Official UFC 196 Thread - Part II

[null]

EZ, can you show your work on this one? mcgregor -208: 622.50 for 300 You bet one side first and then the other when the line moved, right? So a big bet on Conor early when he was in the -200s and then Nate late now that his line jumped up so high I think. I'm curious about the proportions and the math to get there.

 

[EzFlyer]

EZ, can you show your work on this one? mcgregor -208: 622.50 for 300 You bet one side first and then the other when the line moved, right? So a big bet on Conor early when he was in the -200s and then Nate late now that his line jumped up so high I think. I'm curious about the proportions and the math to get there.

see this:

http://oddsb.com/forum/index.php?threads/ufc-196-mcgoat-vs-diaz.480/page-19#post-44929

or shorter version:

a handy way to do it is open up a spreadsheet

put the risk / to win on side-by-side cells on fighter A (let's call them A1 & B1 for the cells)
put the risk / to win on side-by-side cells on fighter B (underneath the above ones) (let's call them A2 and B2 for the cells)

then do B1 minus A2 (your risk on fighter A)
then do B2 minus A1 (your "to win" on fighter B)

divide the "risk" by the "to win" to get your new price

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Conor McGregor 5'8" with 74" reach solid build.
Benson Henderson 5'9" with 70" reach solid build.

Ben got pretty much got what he wanted against Nate. And he's now fighting at 170.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Lol at no touch @ -750 feels good to be on the right side of a line for once.

I cant shake the idea that Tate has a real shot here. I think she can wrestle to a decision fairly often. K im officially on Tate

Also like Taleb dec

 

[Jae Gibbz]

For the parlay lovers this is probably one of the only times you'll ever hear me advocating to play one. If you must and cannot resist a small 2 or 3 teamer, start off with Conor as I'm confident it's a strong foundation for your parlay as there isn't a snowballs chance in hell he loses. Again, I'm anti-parlays but put Mcgregor in a small one and you'll be safe. I'll post my FREE PICK tomorrow for sherdog bettors who want a great value pick.

Click the like button if you find my tips and information useful. You can also hit me up if you want pointers or advice on how to boost your betting bankroll and start winning instead of losing $$$.

-Barry

 

[PuertoRican]

Conor McGregor 5'8" with 74" reach solid build.
Benson Henderson 5'9" with 70" reach solid build.

Ben got pretty much got what he wanted against Nate. And he's now fighting at 170.

Nate had blurry vision in round 1 that lasted the entire fight, at least according to him.

He said Benson hit him with a good shot in his eye, and he wasn't able to properly see out of it, which is why he looked and fought way different than usual.

I personally expected Benson beat Nate rather easily, but Nate DID look way different in that fight, so I believe Nate's excuse.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

fotn lines out

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Nate had blurry vision in round 1 that lasted the entire fight, at least according to him.

He said Benson hit him with a good shot in his eye, and he wasn't able to properly see out of it, which is why he looked and fought way different than usual.

I personally expected Benson beat Nate rather easily, but Nate DID look way different in that fight, so I believe Nate's excuse.

RDA also had his way with a similar build at 5'8" 71" reach. All 4 fellow southpaws. Conor I feel like his philosophy of being able to adapt will come through however the fight unfolds, especially against a flawed fighter like Nate. That Stockton slap shit won't work against Conor. You get what you see with Nate and Nick but they are relentless competitors but Nate doesn't even have that advantage because it's short notice.

 

[Slohog]

So why did they set up Shevchenko vs Nunes? Is it for the next title shot in case Ronda decides to retire or whatnot? Either Nunes wins early and you can her Rogan scream-talk in the promo something like:

"She choked out an Olympic medallist in wrestling, then she knocked out a two million times world champion in Muay Thai in the first round, now she's coming for the belt!"

or Shevchenko wins and he'll go like:

"This chick was born in Kirg.... Kirguu... Kirgis... Russia and has been training martial arts since she was a child, she's been training and winning world titles all over the world and even been dancing on Peruvian television, she has a 52-2 kickboxing record with wins over current straw weight champion Joanna Jejejejechek, came into the UFC with a 12-1 record and beat the former title challenger Sarah Kaufman on short notice before taking another fight winning against the top ranked Amanda Nunes, Valentina Shev-tjen-cow is the real deal ladies and gentlemen!"

 

[cs02132]

I think the UFC section is just overwhelm with the legion of fans on both sides attacking one another and over analyzing as much as possible.

if history tells us anything, its that the Diaz brothers strive under hostility. They try to cause as much as possible, in and out of the cage lol. So I have no reason to think Conor has gotten to him in any way.

Yup I loved the weigh ins today .. I'm 100% rooting for Nate, just expecting Conor to win.. Don't know how but I've doubted him too long lol. I can see Nate finding his range and jabbing Conor but idk. All I can say is STOCKTON MOTHERFUCKER!!

 

[PuertoRican]

RDA also had his way with a similar build at 5'8" 71" reach. All 4 fellow southpaws. Conor I feel like his philosophy of being able to adapt will come through however the fight unfolds, especially against a flawed fighter like Nate. That Stockton slap shit won't work against Conor. You get what you see with Nate and Nick but they are relentless competitors but Nate doesn't even have that advantage because it's short notice.

I'd be surprised if Nate beat Conor, I only commented on Nate's fight against Benson cuz Nate wasn't himself in that fight, and Conor and Benson are nothing alike, nor are Conor and RDA.

All three guys can easily beat Nate, but they all present different problems for him, with RDA/Benson being more similar of the three.

The way RDA and Benson beat Nate has no bearing on Nate's fight with Conor, at least in my opinion.

 

[cs02132]

RDA also had his way with a similar build at 5'8" 71" reach. All 4 fellow southpaws. Conor I feel like his philosophy of being able to adapt will come through however the fight unfolds, especially against a flawed fighter like Nate. That Stockton slap shit won't work against Conor. You get what you see with Nate and Nick but they are relentless competitors but Nate doesn't even have that advantage because it's short notice.

Not disagreeing with u just wondering but didn't benson and rda both use a lot of leg kicks and grappling? I don't really remember. The blueprint to beat a Diaz is to be built like rda/Ben/gsp, utilize leg/body kicks, grapple, and just be more physical and aggressive. Basically what @Oblivian was saying earlier. Conor doesnt do any of that except pressure and punch/kick. for whatever reason I'm having a hard time seeing Conor completely out strike Nate, but at this point I'm just expecting him to. I see Conor kicking Nate just not leg kicks so I'm curious to see how it pans out.

sucks that Nate didn't have a full camp

 

[BluntTrauma21]

"there never was.. a barry"

(ed norton)

Hahaha, damn references are on point today in this forum!

 

[SirKratos]

For parlays;

O3.5 fight ends in KO/TKO (1.34)

O4.5 fights go to distance (1.38)

First one is more likely IMO

 

[209NickDiaz]

I'm quite confident about my choice! even if one fucked up, there's still other four! What do you think I'll walk away with?


added a safety bet on Miesha, just in case she's the only one that wins



added another safety bet single on Nate

 

[phatron]

I'm quite confident about my choice! even if one fucked up, there's still other four! What do you think I'll walk away with?

Likely zero. hitting a 5 team parlay is hard enough.....but to hit a 5 teamer where you picked all the underdogs....

You might as well just picked the other 5 dogs too......it would make that "potential win" number way higher.....which is the only reason you're placing this bet in the first place.

 

[209NickDiaz]

Likely zero. hitting a 5 team parlay is hard enough.....but to hit a 5 teamer where you picked all the underdogs....

You might as well just picked the other 5 dogs too......it would make that "potential win" number way higher.....which is the only reason you're placing this bet in the first place.

That's not true, I've picked winner for all the fights without looking at the odds.
THEN I check the odds, took out the ones that is even or favor...
This is what I've got left! Except for Siyar, I added him to the Yankee because of the odds

 

[209NickDiaz]

Is that even confirmed bet yet? You can type whatever amount in there and crop the picture so it doesn't show that you really did bet that.

if you ever used bet365, then you know that's a bet slip!
Unconfirmed are like this

 

[Besty_Tiocfaidh_Ar_La]

if you ever used bet365, then you know that's a bet slip!
Unconfirmed are like this

View attachment 81505

As a loyal bet365 customer I can confirm this is correct lol! He's done the bet for sure!

 

[mkess101]

Not disagreeing with u just wondering but didn't benson and rda both use a lot of leg kicks and grappling? I don't really remember. The blueprint to beat a Diaz is to be built like rda/Ben/gsp, utilize leg/body kicks, grapple, and just be more physical and aggressive. Basically what @Oblivian was saying earlier. Conor doesnt do any of that except pressure and punch/kick. for whatever reason I'm having a hard time seeing Conor completely out strike Nate, but at this point I'm just expecting him to. I see Conor kicking Nate just not leg kicks so I'm curious to see how it pans out.

sucks that Nate didn't have a full camp

The speed advantage is going to be pretty pronounced though. Nate can neutralize SOME of that with reach but the issue he most has to deal with is that he probably can't really hurt Conor the way he strikes (along with Conor's sick chin). Conor already has amazing offensive timing in his striking, and in a fight where he probably won't respect Nate's power at all it gives Conor the ability to be even more aggressive. There's holes in Conor's striking defense for sure but Nate just doesn't seem like the guy to exploit them. Nate's best chance imo is to figure out a way to get to the clinch, trip or drag Conor to the mat, and very quickly secure a dominant position and start sub hunting. Easier said than done of course.