Official UFC Fight Night 76 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Timurd123]

Im on Miocic decision as well, Rothwell is tough as hell, he can last 3 rounds

 

[Joseph Budden]

Spotted that tempting line yesterday, think the match up is simple as in stipe has to jab and move entire fight if hes cut off he has to rely on his wrestling and take downs, rothwell however won't give up and has a chin on him as well as ko power though but think stipe decision is still the right play.

I'm def worried cause from what I remember Hunt looked like shit from the get go against Stipe but was still having moderate success sneaking the lead left hook in. Rothwell has sneaky speed, most certainly won't stay flat flooted looking to time counters on the fleet footed Miocic like Hunt was, and if he can corner Stipe its big trouble. I feel like this is probably a fight to avoid, but if I had to choose Stipe's ability to create angles and and string together combos more fluently will be a big factor.

 

[Slohog]

I think Daly and Pendred is somewhat trustworthy, you know what you get with them, it's only that they might not be top-10 level fighters. Or well, in Daly's case she might be borderline due to the thin division.

I know Daly is bipolar or whatever, but she doesn't have too many horrible losses. She's just somewhat limited by her athletic ability and somewhat lacking wrestling.

I think her issues is with fighters she can't bully who has decent sub defence. With the right match ups she's really good though, she's still the only girl to stop Jessica Eye and she's hard to finish.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Didn't have a good outing on the last card. Was looking at too many dogs and most of the favorites won. They did a good job of juicing up fighters to force me to make errors. I also really need to learn to cap HW fights better in that weight difference is hard to gauge between 220-265

For the Dublin card I'm with most of you guys on Poirier and Miocic by decision.

I think Poirier has value and it should be closer than the odds suggest. I also think Duffy not ITD has better value than Poirier's ML if you have that prop available to you. Poirier is well rounded and comes to fight. He has the experience edge at a high level over Duffy. I think Poirier can dictate the fight with his ability to wrestle but he's just gotta drill a lot of sub defense and not get caught by a triangle in Duffy's offensive guard. Having said that, I'm not really sure how this fight will unfold yet to be honest. There's a lot I don't know on how Duffy will fare against someone like Dustin.

With Miocic/Ben, I feel like Rothwell will look to capitalize on guys who he's able to eat punches and counter against but Stipe's never been the one to throw bombs in every shot like most HWs do and he doesn't over extend or overreach in his punches. I don't think he'll leave a lot of opportunities to get countered by Ben and he will just do what he did against Roy. I do think Rothwell is a dangerous fighter and he's one the biggest dudes right now in the division so he's got that going for him. These damn HWs are always scary to bet on lol.

I'm wondering how Breese will open against Cathal. I can imagine Cathal opening as a favorite in Ireland and if so I'll be betting Breese and maybe hedging with Cathal strictly by decision. Doomsday Howard beat him 30-27 in my eyes and he was still able to get a judge to score it for him. That's Pendred's most dangerous quality as a fighter, if it goes to a decision you better prepare your robbery reaction face.

 

[Ukram]

I'm def worried cause from what I remember Hunt looked like shit from the get go against Stipe but was still having moderate success sneaking the lead left hook in. Rothwell has sneaky speed, most certainly won't stay flat flooted looking to time counters on the fleet footed Miocic like Hunt was, and if he can corner Stipe its big trouble. I feel like this is probably a fight to avoid, but if I had to choose Stipe's ability to create angles and and string together combos more fluently will be a big factor.

True stipe can fold if pressured and rothwell does it well but can't discount stipe's improvements he took jds bombs and had good footwork, its tempting to add stipe in some parlays or stipe decision play but I don't like hw fights lol

I think Daly and Pendred is somewhat trustworthy, you know what you get with them, it's only that they might not be top-10 level fighters. Or well, in Daly's case she might be borderline due to the thin division.

Quite true will need to watch some tape on their opponents could still be worth while plays.

 

[Ukram]

Watched every fight of Paddy and Smolka in the UFC today.

Smolka's definitely fought the tougher competition.

Paddy looks to be quite dangerous in the first, then tires quite a bit. He lost to Kelades who had 5 days notice through gassing. Since then it's Howell (a jobber) and Vaughan Lee who was also exhausted after a round, the 3rd round looked like a staring contest on the feet.

Smolka looked shit in the Richie Vac fight until the KO, but he just out-worked Seery on the mat comprehensively showing quite big improvement. He also seems to get stronger as the fight wears on.

My theory is that he can't take dmg to the body. His cardio looked fine/decent in everything except the Kelades fight where he looked good in the first round, then Kelades got him to the body with some kicks or knees or whatever (I think it was knees, but my notes says kicks, just shows how confused I am) and then slowed down a lot.

Havn't gotten around to all of Smolka's fights yet, need to check out the last one, but my take is that whoever goes forward and gets TD's wins this. I really think Holohan is far to hittable to spend time standing with anyone with decent straight punches. On the other hand Holohan is really good at taking the back and Smolka gives up his back in transitions sometimes.

Just from memory I put two units on Smolka when a bunch of people here liked it, mainly due to getting good odds (1.90) and thinking those might drop a bit, but after watching some tape I'm probably gonna end up waiting for the livebetting or possible bet the under 2.5 at decent +odds.

In short I'll be on Smolka if he goes forward OR gets some decent bodyshots OR wins the wrestling battle. If he can't get any of that in r1 I think I'll just hedge out and hope that I didn't not end up burning to much money.

I also feel that both are much better offensive grapplers then defensive, which could make whoever ends up as an underdog in livebetting more attractive just in case either one gets caught being sloppy.

Great b/ds think both are spot on, just seen ufc tape on both I would say holohan is the better jitsu guy, its his passion and style, relentless all in r1 and dangerous and good at taking backs and sinking in chokes but in r2/r3 he lacks the cardio and grip strength to be as effective. Smolka better cardio, gets strong later on with better striking.

live betting makes more sense especially if smolka survives r1.

 

[lefontes]

Like a lot Dalby, Askham, Breese, Miocic, Seery and Ray in this card.

All this 6 will win IMO.

Thoughts...

 

[jrwfsl147]

Saw Breese's last three fights, liking what I'm seeing. He had a two year lay-off with knee problems, but he looks like he's going to be much more fluid than Cathal on the feet, and a good enough wrestler to negate his "push against the fence" gameplan (think he's some sort of English wrestling champion). In the fights I watched, all three made it to the cage, where Breese either hit knees or secured a takedown.


Hoping paddypower gets a bit adventurous and tries opening a line.

 

[LEMONZEST]

NFL

Spoiler

I am new to betting nfl, I have 3u on Seattle -10 @ -110 for tonight.

What do you guys think? Am I headed for wealth or destruction?

 

[qwerty30210]

NFL

Spoiler

I am new to betting nfl, I have 3u on Seattle -10 @ -110 for tonight.

What do you guys think? Am I headed for wealth or destruction?

if you are new to betting NFL, i would avoid betting 3u in the beginning. just my 2 cents.

 

[mkess101]

NFL

Spoiler

Seattle -10

Haven't posted any NFL picks thus far but I'm 7-4 to start the year and I love laying the pts here. Normally don't like a giant line like this but these are two teams heading in opposite ways. Seattle has Chancellor back up to speed now so their D should get back to being one of the best. Detroit struggles to protect Stafford and he seems to have regressed from where he was a few years ago anyway. They do have weapons of course but I think they will have a hard time keeping Stafford upright. Seattle meanwhile is figuring out how to use Jimmy Graham and even without Marshawn Lynch tonight I think Wilson and co. will move the ball well against this Lions D. I see a blowout brewing...especially with the 12th man worked into a frenzy for a Monday night game.

I like the prop bet of defense/special teams TD at +150 too. Stafford is going to have to take some chances, I think he'll turn it over multiple times so I see the true odds here at close to even.

 

[bruthead]

What would be a good line for NOT Joseph Duffy ITD? 888/Unibet have opened it at 11/10 (+110).

 

[DeathByCaranos]

An ESPN article about the possibilities for Fantasy bookies(DraftKings/FanDuel) to misuse insider information. Nothing surprising but it is interesting how the employees from these sites have won large sums from each other:

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...transparency-integrity-daily-fantasy-industry



NFL:

Spoiler

I layed the points on Seattle as well. Wilson single-handedly cost the spread on that game. Then after the game they were praising him for how good he is and his amazing scrambling ability. Sure he had some good scrambles, but he also refused to ever throw the ball away. I don't remember him throwing a single pass away. He got sacked 6x for 52 yards and had 3 fumbles of which two were lost, and one was returned for a defensive TD. I wouldn't call that amazing. The guy is getting too cocky. He doesn't start moving till a guy is one feet away from him with a hand reaching out to grab him. Stafford got sacked zero times to Russell's six. Other QBs might not be as fast as Russell but still rarely get sacked six times because they are smart enough to throw the ball away. Think the Hawks were still the right play and that should have been a 20pt blowout if it weren't for Russell. Seahawk defense played great, especially Wagner and Chancellor. Anyways done ranting

 

[Agent Mulder]

+5 units from last event. Pretty happy. Would have been alot better if i didnt bet on Pesta though .

Im looking at Smolka ML on this event. I think he has a slight edge in this fight (very slight). I will be looking out for r3 prop (Smolka). He might be able to land something good when Holohans hands drops in the 3rd (which they tend to do).

A lot of people have mentioned Stipe by decision which seems like an OK bet.

Im on Poirier @ 2.90. I'm thinking about putting 1u on Poirier by TKO @ 5.5. He has great power in his hands after moving up and he will have 5 rounds to get the TKO. It has taken him less than a round in the last two fights. Seems like a pretty likely outcome to me.

 

[zomb]

can't wait to see the PVZ-JoJo lines. JoJo could be a steal

best opponent PVZ has faced

 

[Card]

Bush - http://www.ufc.com/news/Bubba-Bush-Bringing-Texas-Spirit-to-Dublin

- “Fighting in the UFC for the first time is tough and the Octagon jitters are definitely a real thing. I think I’ll be a bit more comfortable this time around, but the crowd is Dublin is well known for bringing the energy.
- “I’m really looking forward to the fight this time and I’m focused on the work,”
- “I’m going to stick around for a week after to see the sights, but there is a job to do first. I think it’s a really cool fight. We are both former champions (Garreth McLellan) in other organizations and he represents an entire country. We have very similar styles and I think he’s very beatable. I like the matchup and I’m going to go in there and handle my business.”
- “I grew up in a military family and we traveled a lot. I have been living in the same town now for 10 years and it’s the only time I’ve ever been in the same place for that long, but I do love to travel and get to experience different places and cultures.”
- “One thing people need to know about me is that I fight for Jesus Christ,”
- “I have dedicated my life to being his servant and I try to put his name out there as much as possible. I’m also diabetic, so I’m trying to bring as much attention to the issue as I can in the hopes of maybe helping someone else who is also diabetic because I don’t think there has ever been a diabetic who competes at this level of competition.
- I just happen to have an ailment that a lot of Americans are currently dealing with and I’m trying to show that you can overcome any adversary in your way. You can do a lot more than you think you can. I’m a little out there. I enjoy the struggle. Fighting is in my blood and it’s something I love to do.”

 

[Ukram]

Im looking at Smolka ML on this event. I think he has a slight edge in this fight (very slight). I will be looking out for r3 prop (Smolka). He might be able to land something good when Holohans hands drops in the 3rd (which they tend to do).

Yup smolka r3 prop sounds an interesting play, holohan always keeps his hands low its how he gets faster and better grips for his take downs or trips so he can begin his type of fight and smolka has more technical striking while smolkas ttd has been sloppy at times his judo base and hips are present so he should be able to do enough, hopefully he is drilling protecting his back and neck from chokes since its holohan's go to move.

 

[trident]

On Poirier and Big Ben this round. Liking the odds on both

 

[Ukram]

Saw Breese's last three fights, liking what I'm seeing. He had a two year lay-off with knee problems, but he looks like he's going to be much more fluid than Cathal on the feet, and a good enough wrestler to negate his "push against the fence" gameplan (think he's some sort of English wrestling champion). In the fights I watched, all three made it to the cage, where Breese either hit knees or secured a takedown.

Watched some tape also, breese is an interesting fighter yeah he is an english wrestling champ to what level that can be is anyone's guess though he seemed to struggle against the clinches and even got taken down by his smaller french opponent in his 2nd to last fight though. Breese does appear to have more technical and more fluid striking though, pendred's all power in his shots.

Can't discount pendred though, while he can have that sloppy style his big winged punches and kicks are good at setting up his grappling and grinding style against the cage, he also looks more muscular and stronger then breese. Pendred also has over 2x the mma fights/experience and higher ufc calibar opponent win ratio. Still should be a good war with England Vs Dublin.

Pendred su or pendred decision prop, I reckon the over 1.5 is a safe play.

 

[Ukram]

Nice article from BE about breese/dalby

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/3/2...lterweights-nicolas-dalby-tom-breese-mma-news