Official UFC Fight Night 79 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Oblivian]

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Spoiler

Singles
Stun Gun: $25 to win $4.72 $29.72
Mina: $7.50 to win $12 $19.50
Sicilia/Choi under 1.5: $7.50 to win $8.25 $15.75
Masvidal (+5.5): $6.25 to win $4.46 $10.71
Serrano: $6.25 to win $3.38 $9.63
Collier: $5 to win $3.70 Loss
Ham: $2.50 to win $3.63 $6.13
Beltran/Guangyou ITD: $2.50 to win $2.75 Loss

Risk of $62.50 $91.44

Parlays
Field over Grace (Alfred Dunhill) + Not Korean Bulldozer ITD: $6.25 to win $3.33 $9.58
Field over Schwartzel (Alfred Dunhill) + Note Steele ITD: $3.75 to win $3.24 Loss
Field over Schwartzel (Alfred Dunhill) + Bang: $2.50 to win $4.25 Loss

Risk of $12.50 $9.58

TOTAL RISK OF $75 $101.02


TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $181.34 Running Profit: $86.34 Approximate ROI for year 2.131%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2631.85 Total Profit = $2612.85 (Approximate ROI: 12.6255%)

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Stun Gun is the closest thing to a lock on this card. Is the perfect parlay material IMO.

PS: I know lock does not exist.

 

[Sham5916910]

Stun Gun is the closest thing to a lock on this card. Is the perfect parlay material IMO.

PS: I know lock does not exist.

Agreed. Shame he's -500 tho and it's difficult finding someone else I'm confident in to pair him with. I need to move quick too expect his line to climb!

 

[Roads55]

Agreed. Shame he's -500 tho and it's difficult finding someone else I'm confident in to pair him with. I need to move quick too expect his line to climb!

same, looking for future events to parlay him with instead


Dong-Hyun Kim
1.17
Tony Ferguson
1.67
Anthony Johnson
1.33

pays 2.60 which i like

 

[Sham5916910]

same, looking for future events to parlay him with instead


Dong-Hyun Kim
1.17
Tony Ferguson
1.67
Anthony Johnson
1.33

pays 2.60 which i like

That may be the way forward with this event - good thinking. I am really struggling to find anyone I can feel confident in. Just watched Yao and Serrano and I'm really not confident in either - seems to be the trend for this event so far. I am tempted by a straight play on Mina tho. Will rewatch each of their last fights. I think it's Mina or nothing for me.

 

[Sham5916910]

Ladbrokes normally release over 1.5, 2.5, etc. May take Stun Gun + over 2.5 if playable and if Stun Gun's line isn't -1000.

 

[Ukram]

From previous thread:
Mina @ Kings MMA

That does change my opinion on Mina going all out and gassing early on, they must have worked on his cardio and fight iq, sexyama imo is still solid and has the experience and solid judo base experience but as others said Kings MMA is pretty good, mina maybe able to make the right changes to come out on top. Think some interview vids are worth watching later on in the week.

Stun gun vs Waters:
Waters may have looked worse due to that 1 week ufc debut notice, even then he showed some powerful hands and ok wrestling, issue being is stun gun is great at closing the gap and clinching and from there its his world. Waters is an interesting dog if I see him with decent footwork and circling movement and trying to keep the fight standing which is all he would need to do to almost win, id throw a flyer on lb

 

[Tommy945]

Serrano is close to lock IMO.

 

[Ukram]

Doo Ho Choi vs Sam Sicilia

Tricky fight to predict, Choi is often ranked no1-no3 top prospect coming out of korea, known as 'superboy' he has technical crisp boxing with speed and power, has shown solid ttd against an Asian high ranked wrestler and is known as the one punch ko kid. It showed in his ufc debut also.

Choi needs some more fights in the ufc before we can get a better idea of his skill set. But here is some info and b/d on his past fights;

Sam has beaten and fought the bigger and ranked opponents, has shown he is powerful and an good all rounder with wrestling, gnp and powerful striking so its hard to not favour him in this fight.

I think Sicilia will be aggressive in Chois face constantly, using his powerful striking to work his way into clinches to gain take downs with gnp he should be able to do this most of the fight to win, if however Chois ttd works (which is meant to be good) and he can stuff Sicilias take downs early on, ill live bet the prospect due to his better counter striking ability against a forward aggressive sicilia.

Extras:
***Choi has also cancelled his fight with sam 2x in the past, his last due to an undisclosed injury?, Choi has 1 year ring rust but home turf advantage.

 

[Ukram]

Alberto Mina vs Yoshihiro Akiyama

Mina is gritty 11-0 undefeated MMA fighter sporting a 2nd degree Judo, 3rd degree Bjj black belt all his fights were finished via sub or ko, lots of awards and titles in wrestling, bj, judo, but is he any good ? Its hard to say he has so many round 1 finishes against tin cans and he pretty much goes all out in it, in his ufc debut against anzia (the animal) both showed a rock em sock em back and forth fight which ended in a ko in r1, but mina showed very little fight iq, little technique in anything and poor cardio. His padded record shows 2 fights which went r3 also.

In steps in 40 year old sexyama who was given a winnable fight to keep his job in the ufc, he looked ok, used his judo base well enough and stringed some punches and kicks together and good solid gnp, but his opponent was gassed and done in even in r1.

This should be an wild and sloppy fight in which ever guy with the better gas tank and chin wins, either Mina gets an early finish or yama SU whose fight iq and slightly better gas tank allows him to edge out a win here. I like mina r1 finish or r3 finish props but as hedge plays to sexyama decision or su, for those pondering why not ITD? yama could not finished a gassed amir last outing.

***Extras***:
Mina trained at Kings MMA for 8 weeks, id expect he should be much better trained and prepared for this fight, lets see if he can keep his gas tank in check.

 

[rille31]

Ksw lines up on betsafe, good main event with Khalidov vs materla

Also lines + props for local swedish event battle of botnia, main event with Nicklas Bäckström vs some bum

will be available to watch online if anybody wants some degen action

 

[Ukram]

Dominic Waters vs Dong Hyun Kim

Waters is a big welterweight, tall and athletic who likes to mix his boxing with take downs, his short notice ufc debut against george showed he has some powerful striking and can wrestle, however he is still a bit green in MMA (only 5 years pro).
I mentioned earlier waters ufc debut was on 1 weeks notice so may not have looked his best, if he shows improved foot work and avoids the stun guns clinch game he has a good advantage with striking here but its a big if, waters could be an interesting dog.

Kim has experience, a major judo and grappling advantage coming in and its a good opponent for kim, since waters is often static with his movement, I expect kim to clinch and use his judo and grappling to control the fight looking for a submission or to grind him out to a decision. Like Kim su or in parlay material, the overs and kim sub prop maybe worth a look if the prop lines are good. I also like a flyer on waters ko, he could catch kim due to his hands being down often.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Stun gun parlay:

DHK + Holloway + Miocic @ 2.05

 

[Roads55]

Thoughts on travis browne @ 1.63? seems like it will shorten

That may be the way forward with this event - good thinking. I am really struggling to find anyone I can feel confident in. Just watched Yao and Serrano and I'm really not confident in either - seems to be the trend for this event so far. I am tempted by a straight play on Mina tho. Will rewatch each of their last fights. I think it's Mina or nothing for me.

same here, I'm just fading akiyama, fought 1 time in nearly 4 years, and he's 40, need to watch mina before i play him for more though. got 2.62 on unibet, i saw the line a couple weeks ago at like 3.25 and forgot to hit it : /

 

[Sham5916910]

Serrano is close to lock IMO.

Can you elaborate?

 

[Agent Mulder]

Thoughts on travis browne @ 1.63? seems like it will shorten

That's a steal imo. Which book?

 

[Roads55]

That's a steal imo. Which book?

It's with betsafe, interesting to see if rousey's loss will affect him at all, there's a while yet before the fight so it should be fine. I wonder if he's regretting training with edmund now. anyone know much about his camp? does he still train at jackson's too?

Travis Browne 1.65
Matt Mitrione 2.24

edit: took stun gun/browne @ 1.98

 

[Joseph Budden]

Serrano is close to lock IMO.

He has the skills but idk about dude's fight IQ. He needs to wrestle Zhikui. I'm worried he'll want to throw and Zhikui can keep it competitive standing

 

[Joseph Budden]

Hoping Browne gets bet up. I want to bet Mitrione but need him at a deeper dog line than +225

 

[antithetic]

Just hoping Bang ****z doesnt finish too quick.