Official UFC on Fox 17 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

weedreference said:
I don't know, Cerrone probably would have finished RDA had their last fight been 5 rounds. If he doesn't get rocked early it could be even more in his favor toward the end. Also, he knows this will likely be by far his best chance to win the title, so he will be on point. Finally, I think he has improved against south paws of late. His right teep (particularly devastating since it is aimed at the south paw's liver) especially.

Granted this is the new RDA, so I am fairly small on Cerrone.
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RDA v2.0 against Pettis beats Cerrone. Cerrone also chokes in big matches and with his tendencies to start slow, I think RDA keeps the pressure up. Cerrone however, was picking in R3 in their last fight. RDA fights of both stances, I dont think he will just stay southpaw.
 
kenCs said:
Even the slightest injury will cause someone to focus on it. He will be more hesitant to kick with it. This may be sherdog psychology but the way he lingers on it and Overeem asking sincerely makes me show that it has been affecting his training a little bit. May even be a shin injury, those dont hurt bad but when targeted or kicking with it will cause pain.
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Well as fucked up as it sounds, I'm hoping you're right and it does play a factor. If Cowboy slows down or is hesitant at all, RDA is going to roll right over him.
 
chill doggie said:
Damn guys, I started with $50 bucks and in 3 weeks I had $1,800 in my bankroll. My ROI got up to the 70s%.
Today I have $0.
I set out to do this as a job and profit greatly which I did, but then more bills came in and the stress affected me and I was chasing profits instead of losses.
I made bad decisions and worst of all incorrect ones, I placed a live bet for Suns to win the 1st quarter or so I thought, went to sleep expecting to see $1,000.00 in my account next morning but when I woke up I realized I had placed an unintended bet for Suns to win the first half.

Moral of the story is to step away when stressed and to not chase anything, specially profit.
Probably could have taken a break too, I had been betting for 26 days straight every day: soccer, nhl, nba, nfl, mma, etc...
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Yes, when I make larger amounts of money, I tend to get lazy with bets. Hammered Aldo last week and lost a ton of money. I didnt mind to much cause I am a Conor fan. Lucky he beat him quick with a TKO to save me a little but I wasnt affected.If the fight against Frankie happens, Im taking Conor huge at +155 odds. Never doubting Conor again. Someone with that kinda belief is scary. Damn.
 
kenCs said:
Castillo is and has made improvements to striking. He has something to prove aswell. I think he takes it and at dog odds, Ill take it.
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He does some "Bang" basics with his angles, but i'm not that impressed and think hes on an athletic decline. On the other hand, I think Lentz is improving and as long as the physicality in the clinch isn't bigtime in Castillo's favor I think Lentz will get the better of that. Castillo is not that good in the clinch and thats where Lentz thrives the most.

Gonna be a scrap, and can't fault anyone for choosing either way on this one. Split dec wouldn't surprise me, and non degenerates are better off just playing the over and livebetting.
 
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Diet Otsuka said:
Bovada still doesnt have props up. what a joke
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Yup such a pain in the ass that is takes so long not to mention the new website took a long time getting use to, still hate it though lol
 
Ugh... really? I still think the overs should be good in the RDA fight, but what are some other opinions? Cerrone is a tough sob
 
Diet Otsuka said:
Bovada still doesnt have props up. what a joke
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Bovada is literally like the worst book you can use.. lol.. They offer like the worst lines ever and take the most juice on MMA fights. I was using them like 6 years ago. I remember placing my biggest bet for like years with them when Jake Shields fought Hendo.. I feel old now!! :eek
They don't offer live betting on UFC fights yet, do they??
 
chill doggie said:
Damn guys, I started with $50 bucks and in 3 weeks I had $1,800 in my bankroll. My ROI got up to the 70s%.
Today I have $0.
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its happened to the best of us, sorry to hear tho man. moving forward, just bet within your limits and withdraw your winnings before you go ahead and put 5+ units on any bet. if bills are coming in, that's even more of a reason to withdraw your winnings. my 2 cents
 
KampSiver said:
Bovada is literally like the worst book you can use.. lol.. They offer like the worst lines ever and take the most juice on MMA fights. I was using them like 6 years ago. I remember placing my biggest bet for like years with them when Jake Shields fought Hendo.. I feel old now!! :eek
They don't offer live betting on UFC fights yet, do they??
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Yup they use to offer live betting on UFC a long time ago I haven't seen it on there in a while, I signed up with them just because depositing and withdrawal of money is pretty easy. They use to offer nice bonus bets too for football like 100 dollar free bets, they have become extinct lol
 
Joseph Budden said:
He does some "Bang" basics with his angles, but i'm not that impressed and think hes on an athletic decline. On the other hand, I think Lentz is improving and as long as the physicality in the clinch isn't bigtime in Castillo's favor I think Lentz will get the better of that.

Gonna be a scrap, and can't fault anyone for choosing either way on this one. Split dec wouldn't surprise me, and non degenerates are better off just playing the over and livebetting.
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Degen through and through. Taking the overs on most of the card will net me money. Yet I do parlays and DUMB picks xD.

Here is who I like so far (Converted to American odds):
Hayder but Ill lb if available but doubtful.
Usman to win a dec or even a R2 sub or TKO. Threw him in a parlay.
Nganou ML at -125 (Medium). I dont suggest putting a lot on a unknown HW but he has a beastly look to him xD.
CB dolloway but skipping at -400. WTF. Max I would do is -250.
Olivera at dog odds but nothing on it yet. Jury looked good at weighin. Ill lb if possible.
Cole Miller at dog odds (Small)
Josh Samman is one of the best bets on this card but odds are not great. Parlay material.
Castillo should win by dec. Bet straight up at dog odds. (Medium)
Shevchenko at DOG odds? I dont know much about her but she beat JJ champ 3 times? Joanna is my fav female fighter so Ill put some money down (Small)
JDS should murder this pale imitation of Ubereem. Best bet is fight doent go the distance. But Ill throw JDS in a parlay cause of the odds. JDS TKO line is a must though. Reem decision to possibly hedge.
Nate Diaz at +400 xD. Stay the fuck away from this. MJ should win but I aint betting against a Diaz. Dariush caused MJ problems with the jab which Nate could use effectively and is miles ahead on the ground. Take the over and place a little on Nate. I however, am choosing the over. (Small on the Over)
Randa Markos should win but I dont know much about KK before the invicta. Sorry. I like both of them though. Situation like this means dog or pass but at -180 for Randa, Ill take it. (Small)
RDA puts a beating on Cerrone who is a little injured. At -200 Ill go ham. (Medium-Large).

Ill post final bets later.
 
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Jae Gibbz said:
Ugh... really? I still think the overs should be good in the RDA fight, but what are some other opinions? Cerrone is a tough sob
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Whats wrong?
 
Are you kidding me? This fucking euro books haven't even received action on Shevchenko yet they still list her +110/+120... I guess i'll just play her by decision and hope for a better line in LB
 
Btw, props to Jury for accepting a fight vs a 5 pound overweight opponent (if the scale was not off).
 
As for RDA/Cerrone

I was essentially waiting for RDA's line to get closer to evens, or atlest 1.5 to 1. At current price i'm only RDA by decision +130. He couldn't finish one-eye Pettis..
 
EzFlyer said:
the cerrone-overeem conversation is scaring people, rumor that cerrone is injured, leg or body, hard to tell (right leg?)
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I posted a vid two or three pages back with why I think itll be a factor.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Btw, props to Jury for accepting a fight vs a 5 pound overweight opponent (if the scale was not off).
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He is bigger than Olivera when hydrated. He is a large FW.
 
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