PFL 2021 #8: Playoffs

[Noel Wards]

All the odds on my preferred platform have come on. Says 19 August. Am I missing something?

 

[Noel Wards]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PFL_8_(2021_season)

 

[svmr_db]

All the odds on my preferred platform have come on. Says 19 August. Am I missing something?

Nope that is correct, PFL has switched between Thursdays and Fridays a few times this year, a little strange.

https://www.sherdog.com/events/Professional-Fighters-League-PFL-8-2021-Playoffs-89638

 

[Noel Wards]

The odds for Kayla Harrison are so bad I don't know why you'd risk betting on her. For my platform I get 6% return. No thanks.

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm liking Amanda Leve as a pick. Her opponent Vescan was an Olympic wrestling bronze medalist.

However, Amanda has heavy BJJ credentials. Plus more experience so she's probably better on the feet as well.

I can't imagine Vescan has the submission defense to shrug off all the attempts. Plus freestyle wrestlers don't usually have real good top control.

Both don't have any fights. But Vescan has only been signed since march.

Can tell me about Larrisa and why she's such a favourite?

 

[svmr_db]

Can tell me about Larrisa and why she's such a favourite?

Larissa Pacheco is legit, she's the only woman to not get finished by Kayla Harrison and she's gone 8 total rounds with her. She has a lot of experience, 19 total fights compared to Guardado's total of 3. On top of that, she's one of the harder hitters in all of WMMA, just check out these highlights of her last 2 finishes.

Haven't seen too much of Guardado but she's yet to be tested in her short career, has no finishes. This fight is a big step up in competition. Can't see much of a route to victory for her right now, aside from a screwy robbery decision like Clay Collard / Raush Manfio and Rory MacDonald / Gleison Tibau.

 

[Noel Wards]

What's everyone's favourite mismatches on the card?

The oddmakers seem to think:

• Larissa Pacheco
• Marina Mokhnatina
• Renan Ferreira
• Denis Goltsov

And Kayla Harrison.

 

[Shelter]

I’m going to do a Goltsov/Pacheco/Ferreira parlay at around +170 but I’ve got a feeling I’ve gone a leg too far on it. I just can’t settle on who it is of the three.

From the bouts in the regular season, I’ve thought Goltsov has looked sharp and been very underwhelmed by Delija. They’re roughly the same age and both experienced, but Goltsov has looked dangerous while Delija got smashed by a heavy hitter in Cappelozza and only beat a late replacement in Cole. Watching him fight I could have sworn he was 36-ish and declining but he’s only 31.

Neither Guardado or Pacheco have faced a high level of opponent in the tournament yet, but Guardado seems like her only path to victory is to try and grind it out along the fence, she isn’t threatening to finish on the feet or on the ground. I think Pacheco will be able to damage her wherever the fight ends up. Guardado took a lot of time off from the sport in between her amateur and pro career, I think that stalled-out any opportunity to really advance her skills.

Kind of shooting from the hip on Ferreira, but I think his height, range, and power will be enough to overwhelm Austin, who is likely used to having those advantages in his bouts and whose last four losses are all TKOs. Austin’s judo background and Ferreira’s inability to finish late notice Seumaneufa do give me pause though.

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm looking at a Larrisa/Goltsov/Levee parlay.

Larissa a dangerous finisher who has enough grappling to not be finished by Kayla Harrison. Whose opponent only get decisions.

Goltsov. Shelter said better than I can.

Amanda Levee. Her opponent is an Olympic freestyle bronze medalist. However, has no fights yet. Signing just of march of this year.

Amanda Levee has more experience in mma.
Amanda Levee is a bjj blackbelt and has heavy ADCC credentials.

I don't see how Cynthia could have possibly shored up her submission defense to point where she won't get caught.

 

[DonQ94]

I'm looking at a Larrisa/Goltsov/Levee parlay.

Larissa a dangerous finisher who has enough grappling to not be finished by Kayla Harrison. Whose opponent only get decisions.

Goltsov. Shelter said better than I can.

Amanda Levee. Her opponent is an Olympic freestyle bronze medalist. However, has no fights yet. Signing just of march of this year.

Amanda Levee has more experience in mma.
Amanda Levee is a bjj blackbelt and has heavy ADCC credentials.

I don't see how Cynthia could have possibly shored up her submission defense to point where she won't get caught.

I would stay away from including someone in your parlay who is gonna have her first pro fight. We basically know nothing about those fighters, just guesses and assumptions based on their other careers.

 

[Noel Wards]

I would stay away from including someone in your parlay who is gonna have her first pro fight. We basically know nothing about those fighters, just guesses and assumptions based on their other careers.

Yes that's true. One is a great wrestler. At least in taking others down. They usually don't have much top control. She can't have possibly trained the submission defense in a few months.

Another is a highly decorated grappler in ADCC. It just they appear to come so perfectly together for my bet.

 

[Shelter]

Per Leve’s Instagram, sounds like Vescan is out and she has a new opponent. Posted yesterday, I don’t recognize who it is she’s fighting now from the picture

https://www.instagram.com/amandaleve_bjj/?hl=en

 

[rille31]

Does Genah Fabian have anyy kind of ground game?

 

[Noel Wards]

I'm now looking at Larissa/Goltsov parlay. Probably the most prudent choice anyway. My questions.

Larissa

1. Does she have good TDD?
2. Does she have good cardio?

 

[Richard Cruz]

I'm liking Amanda Leve as a pick. Her opponent Vescan was an Olympic wrestling bronze medalist.

However, Amanda has heavy BJJ credentials. Plus more experience so she's probably better on the feet as well.

I can't imagine Vescan has the submission defense to shrug off all the attempts. Plus freestyle wrestlers don't usually have real good top control.

Both don't have any fights. But Vescan has only been signed since march.

Can tell me about Larrisa and why she's such a favourite?

Vescan has been out.
Edit- New opponent Miranda Kay Barber

 

[Thesnake101]

Looking at Cappelozza, Moraes, Hendricks and Goltsov. Also see some value on Moffet. Heard that Knight didn't look too hot against the can he fought in his return, and him not knowing how to get out of a body triangle is still fresh ln my mind. Bobby also was very competitive with Mitchell, who's better than Knight imo.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm now looking at Larissa/Goltsov parlay. Probably the most prudent choice anyway. My questions.

Larissa

1. Does she have good TDD?
2. Does she have good cardio?

This isn't difficult to answer with a token amount of tape, she went 40 minutes with Kayla Harrison.

 

[Jordan3399]

the can

How dare you disrespect Krazy Horse, Moffett ain't KOing Wanderlai dude.

 

[Thesnake101]

How dare you disrespect Krazy Horse, Moffett ain't KOing Wanderlai dude.

I meant Cliff Wright.

 

[BigSteve]

Looking at Cappelozza, Moraes, Hendricks and Goltsov. Also see some value on Moffet. Heard that Knight didn't look too hot against the can he fought in his return, and him not knowing how to get out of a body triangle is still fresh ln my mind. Bobby also was very competitive with Mitchell, who's better than Knight imo.

Moffet is my dog of that card. He did solid against Bubba, Knight has seemed washed for a while now