Political Betting Thread

The Eagle said:
What you think about Democratic candidate to win Michigan -300 and Minnesota -310?
Click to expand...

I think they're very probable but less safe. Hillary lost MI and narrowly edged MN in 2016. Biden should do better in both but the possibility of a repeat performance still looms, and there's still a lot of worry about mail-ins (which favor D's) being counted properly. Nevada seems to have a more robust system and most of the state already did EV, and a repeat of 2016 would just mean a Biden win. So I'd call it the best lock of the race on Biden's side.
 
I have about 10u on a Biden (electoral) win right now but I'm looking to throw some late cash on state plays. Biden +200 in OH is very tempting but that state's been trending more red for quite some time despite the evenness in polls. I'll prob throw 1u on Biden as the slight dog in FL, and like 0.5u on the +275 in TX just for the hell of it. I don't really like the lines in most of the swings, but I do have a strong feeling about Biden winning AZ, and I don't think -150 is too bad to play it.
 
rev0lver said:
Yeah, I don't think Biden's gonna win Wisconsin by 17 points lol. But I genuinely do trust Silver's data analysis more than most others. He does clearly have a political leaning, but he's honest about the probabilities and talks about Trump's realistic paths to victory. Can't act like Rasmussen/Trafalgar don't have an agenda either when they're both very combative/defensive about their work and tweet or publish a lot of pro-R info. Silver gives low ratings to or bans pollsters who lack transparency in methodology (or use unacceptable methodologies) and display sharp agendas, and he does the same whether they're on the right or left.

Trafalgar's polling results might look reasonable with respect to what we saw in 2016, but how will that look if Biden wins MN/WI by a large amount?
Click to expand...

It depends on how you give NH, AZ, NV, IA, NC, and MI.

Trafalgar has Trump up in FL, PA, NC, and MI in tight races. They have him up pretty big in OH and AZ.

If Trump pulls out FL, PA, NC, and MI, he wins the election.
 
Thing I want to point out with Trafalgar is that them promoting their wins doesn't tell the full story. They did get some things right in 2016, but showed a sharp R bias against the results in states like Colorado and Nevada. Conversely, the mainstream polling averages were actually very accurate for the western states in 2016, where Hillary performed equal to or better than the average (part of why I feel Biden has AZ+NV in the bag). This tells me both Trafalgar and big pollsters were missing something. Most pollsters have since adjusted their models to account for things like under-educated whites who turned out in big numbers. But Trafalgar seems to have doubled down on their method. IMO it's more probable than not that Trafalgar's method is wrong and just happened to produce some select results, and using the same method in a new situation can produce poor results.

Also going to 2018 with them, they still showed a clear R bias even on the elections they got right. They were way off in places like Texas, and even though they got both winners in Florida right, they predicted much cleaner R wins when both races were won by <0.5%.

If I were to factor in Trafalgar polls I'd give Biden at least 2 points over whatever they're polling. And if that's the case, Biden should take it. Remember that even on the races they got right, Trump never did better than their polling. So even if they're showing something like Biden+1 in WI, it'd be surprising if the real results went further in Trump's favor than that.
 
Joedaman55 said:
It depends on how you give NH, AZ, NV, IA, NC, and MI.

Trafalgar has Trump up in FL, PA, NC, and MI in tight races. They have him up pretty big in OH and AZ.

If Trump pulls out FL, PA, NC, and MI, he wins the election.
Click to expand...

NH and NV I would be shocked if Biden doesn't win.

OH I think is likely Trump even though pollsters have it tied or slight Biden lead.

For MI, Biden's polling lead is about 4.5 points higher than Hillary's was in 2016. He covers the results vs polling spread pretty cleanly there. I'd say I'm about 95% confident Biden takes back MI and WI. If that's the case, Biden only needs ONE of AZ, PA, NC, FL, GA, or OH and he wins (if just AZ, then NE-2 wins the tiebreak and Biden has a heavy lead there). I think he wins both AZ and PA at the minimum, and Trump is fighting from behind here. EV numbers are probably stronger for dems in PA than in anywhere else right now. I'd say it's more likely that Biden dips into red states like GA than Trump pulling enough states to win.

And as I pointed out above, Trafalgar's worst track record is in western states. Major pollsters have done well recently there and may have even underestimated D's, if anything. I'd take Trafalgar putting Trump up in AZ with a grain of salt.
 
rev0lver said:
I have about 10u on a Biden (electoral) win right now but I'm looking to throw some late cash on state plays. Biden +200 in OH is very tempting but that state's been trending more red for quite some time despite the evenness in polls. I'll prob throw 1u on Biden as the slight dog in FL, and like 0.5u on the +275 in TX just for the hell of it. I don't really like the lines in most of the swings, but I do have a strong feeling about Biden winning AZ, and I don't think -150 is too bad to play it.
Click to expand...

Im obviously on opposite side, but good luck..... you are gonna need it. :p

Probably its me who needs the luck.
 
This is why I am inclined to believe there is a systemic polling 'error'. Why do Hiden 'rallies' never have anyone wanting to get in but can't? He is the guy with a near double-digit national lead and has Texas ready to flip.

But this the guy who is supposed to be struggling in Minnesota and everywhere else.



OTOH we have

 
Last edited:
Similar to 2016 - zero enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate. Polls might overestimate the Biden margin because of both shy Trump support and the lack of enthusiasm for Biden. It's easy to answer the phone and say who you're voting for, but voting itself requires taking time out of your day, driving somewhere and possibly waiting in line. If there is zero enthusiasm to vote for your guy you might choose to sit on the couch instead.

But it's still hard to justify a Trump bet with the electoral map looking so bleak. He'll need multiple close states to swing his way. It's hard to see value at on Trump at less than +200. Last election he was around +400 at this time if I recall.
 
The Hunter Biden pay for play scandal might be too big and too legitimate for the media to suppress much longer.
 
Barkus said:
Similar to 2016 - zero enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate. Polls might overestimate the Biden margin because of both shy Trump support and the lack of enthusiasm for Biden. It's easy to answer the phone and say who you're voting for, but voting itself requires taking time out of your day, driving somewhere and possibly waiting in line. If there is zero enthusiasm to vote for your guy you might choose to sit on the couch instead.

But it's still hard to justify a Trump bet with the electoral map looking so bleak. He'll need multiple close states to swing his way. It's hard to see value at on Trump at less than +200. Last election he was around +400 at this time if I recall.
Click to expand...

This could be the deciding factor, a fair chunk of remaining dnc vote will not bother to stand in line on election day bc of lack of enthusiasm and feamongering about virus, but a determined and undeterred gop turnout will swing it for trump. Thats the hypothesus anyway.

Vbm not producing the numbers dnc hoped and ballot stuffing contingency ops hampered by sc ruling will prevent them from cheating too much.
 
Feeling little bit better about my bets. GOP registered voters lead in Wisconsin in early voting! Youth vote has collapsed there to 5%.

party reg in wisconsin different, but lack of youth vote is a good sign for trump.

I just can't see Hiden and the ho being able to summon up this youth vote by hiding in a basement, occasionally appreaing to mumble incoherently and his ho wandering around and cackling for no reason.

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-gop-ahead-8-points/?amp
 
Last edited:
I know some of you guys dislike Nate Silver and 538 but he did have Trump at 30% odds to win the day before the election in 2016 when markets were projecting Tump to have around a 20% to win. So yeah he was wrong but as far as I'm concerned if you beat the market you deserve some credit. 538 has Trump at 10% right now :eek:
 
Selzer pulls a trump +7 out of its ass in IA. Has huge 'swing' in indie support for trump. Almost as if pollsters are scrambling to save their reps.

 
Barkus said:
I know some of you guys dislike Nate Silver and 538 but he did have Trump at 30% odds to win the day before the election in 2016 when markets were projecting Tump to have around a 20% to win. So yeah he was wrong but as far as I'm concerned if you beat the market you deserve some credit. 538 has Trump at 10% right now :eek:
Click to expand...

You are right about that, but in this cycle he is giving cover for pollsters publishing, at best ascribed to negligence, polls eg ABC +17 Biden, they know the poll was bs, this doesn't happen unless they are trying to get a bad sample.

Ok, if biden wins that WI by +7 or something, then that poll picked up an outlier sample, but if not, then it was done to get a fake poll, but they overcooked it.

Then he called out trafalgar, for x tabs he knows dont reflect the issues he higlighted.

He isn't an honest broker.

 
longway said:
You are right about that, but in this cycle he is giving cover for pollsters publishing, at best ascribed to negligence, polls eg ABC +17 Biden, they know the poll was bs, this doesn't happen unless they are trying to get a bad sample.

Ok, if biden wins that WI by +7 or something, then that poll picked up an outlier sample, but if not, then it was done to get a fake poll, but they overcooked it.

Then he called out trafalgar, for x tabs he knows dont reflect the issues he higlighted.

He isn't an honest broker.

Click to expand...


Fair point. It wouldn't be hard to rig a poll while not being fraudulent. Just don't publish the results you don't like and publish the ones you do. Variance will eventually give you some results you like.

I don't know it the media would actually do that, but the level of TDS I'm seeing is getting disturbing and I wouldn't anything past the media at this point.
 
Barkus said:
Fair point. It wouldn't be hard to rig a poll while not being fraudulent. Just don't publish the results you don't like and publish the ones you do. Variance will eventually give you some results you like.

I don't know it the media would actually do that, but the level of TDS I'm seeing is getting disturbing and I wouldn't anything past the media at this point.
Click to expand...
Slimeball is trying to pretend a one month 28 point swing in independent voting intention from the Selzer poll is statistical 'variance'.
 
Last edited:
Barkus said:
The Hunter Biden pay for play scandal might be too big and too legitimate for the media to suppress much longer.
Click to expand...
They only need to suppress it for a few more days and I'm sure they will. It doesn't matter at this point anyway. I think everyone has made up their minds it just comes down to who is willing to spend the time to fill out and turn in their ballot or who is willing to stand in line to vote. Everyone has an opinion but many, or some, are too lazy to act on it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,670
Messages
55,578,971
Members
174,829
Latest member
dbdbxb

Share this page

Back
Top