Political Betting Thread

[longway]

Another poll released today had Trump at 40%. Both had about 3% margin of error, so Trump at 43%?

Looking at movement rather than %. But if you look at RCP aggregate job approval then he is at 46%. His favourability is steadily increasing, though its only recent;y Hiden's favourability has started to decline a little, mainly bc he isn't hiding in his basement quite so much.

 

[longway]

Trump has gained among every demographic he needs except one. If it wasn't for the virus he would have cruised to re-election, and I would have a few thousand quid in my pocket to boot. IMO this is why we are seeing weird poll results in places like SC and Georgia and Texas.

 

[joenewbie]

I agree that is the likely result which will send a signal that COVID is not as catastrophic as it’s made out to be which helps the open things up narrative. It also helps Trump because when people are sick with a perceived deadly disease, almost everyone becomes sympathetic to them even if they were a complete asshole in life. This is pretty bad luck for Biden in my opinion.

My opinion is only based on living in a very liberal state but I can say that Democrats aren't sympathetic to him at all. They are openly mocking him and hoping he dies. One woman who is in a FB group I'm part of is hoping that doctors "accidently" kill him and many agree with her. If anything I think this makes older Republicans who haven't worried about COVID now think twice. I predict more lockdowns and restrictions and more Republicans agreeing to them which helps Biden.

 

[TrueAscension]

My opinion is only based on living in a very liberal state but I can say that Democrats aren't sympathetic to him at all. They are openly mocking him and hoping he dies. One woman who is in a FB group I'm part of is hoping that doctors "accidently" kill him and many agree with her. If anything I think this makes older Republicans who haven't worried about COVID now think twice. I predict more lockdowns and restrictions and more Republicans agreeing to them which helps Biden.

Don't be ridiculous. The far left doesn't represent the vast majority of liberals as the far right doesn't represent the vast majority of conservatives.

 

[rev0lver]

Trump has gained among every demographic he needs except one. If it wasn't for the virus he would have cruised to re-election, and I would have a few thousand quid in my pocket to boot. IMO this is why we are seeing weird poll results in places like SC and Georgia and Texas.

Was just gonna come post about this lol. This is actually insane to me and not something I ever predicted going into this season. I disagree about Trump otherwise cruising to re-election, but tanking the senior vote is a political bullet to the head no matter where you were standing before.

Here's something else interesting I read out of a Michigan poll showing similar data https://www.clickondetroit.com/deci...ad-over-trump-in-michigan-after-first-debate/ :

"Joe Biden holds a 50-point lead among absentee voters. Trump holds a 27- point lead among Election Day voters."

That's a huge margin. Election week might be more of a shitshow than I thought. Trump might look like he won in a landslide by the end of that night. November's basically going to be a political civil war if there's even one instance of mail-ins being mishandled.

 

[Roads55]

Trump out to 3.0, no more stimulus checks until after the election, widening poll's, no way for him to gain new votes, damage still being done from covid diagnosis, covid deaths, covid cases.
Not looking good for Donald, he's losing bigly.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Trump out to 3.0, no more stimulus checks until after the election, widening poll's, no way for him to gain new votes, damage still being done from covid diagnosis, covid deaths, covid cases.
Not looking good for Donald, he's losing bigly.

I guess you better unload the truck on Biden then.

 

[TrueAscension]

I guess you better unload the truck on Biden then.

Yes because providing analysis translates into irresponsibly overbetting.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Yes because providing analysis translates into irresponsibly overbetting.

Who said irresponsible? Sounds like you're capping him -500 at least so you should be going balls deep. But whatever, you're probably one of those guys who consistently 'analyse' things and never translate it into an investment opportunity.

 

[Joedaman55]

My opinion is only based on living in a very liberal state but I can say that Democrats aren't sympathetic to him at all. They are openly mocking him and hoping he dies. One woman who is in a FB group I'm part of is hoping that doctors "accidently" kill him and many agree with her. If anything I think this makes older Republicans who haven't worried about COVID now think twice. I predict more lockdowns and restrictions and more Republicans agreeing to them which helps Biden.

Yeah, that’s so interesting regarding the Liberal perspective and I’ve seen it played out in the media. Kind of shitty thing for people to wish for someone’s death but the movie in some Liberal’s minds is that he’s the next Hitler, just insane to see.

Oh I doubt you’ll see Republican run areas shut down again. Regarding the Republican base, think they’re the same as the Democrats as you can throw any candidate in there and they’ll vote their side based on the dislike they have of the other side.

 

[rev0lver]

Yeah, that’s so interesting regarding the Liberal perspective and I’ve seen it played out in the media. Kind of shitty thing for people to wish for someone’s death but the movie in some Liberal’s minds is that he’s the next Hitler, just insane to see.

I think it's shitty behavior but tbh I don't like either side taking moral high grounds on it. I remember all the threats and effigy burnings of Obama, and politicians like Ilhan Omar are getting death threats daily. It's totally inappropriate whether it's to them or to someone like Trump.

I'm an anti-Trump guy though. Most of what I've seen from friends (and myself included) is that we'd rather Trump live to watch himself lose than to die a martyr.

 

[rev0lver]

Trump out to 3.0, no more stimulus checks until after the election, widening poll's, no way for him to gain new votes, damage still being done from covid diagnosis, covid deaths, covid cases.
Not looking good for Donald, he's losing bigly.

This is pretty crazy because I actually thought his covid diagnosis could be a boost for him. It created an opportunity for sympathy, distracting from the tax return leaks and poor debate performance. Biden was even handing him a pass by holding off the negative ads till he gets better. He could've come out with an empathetic attitude, showing he understands what people have been going through. Instead, he rips his mask off, telling everyone it's no big deal after getting exclusive top-tier treatment, and denies a new stimulus package that would almost undoubtedly be a political boon for him. This isn't 5D chess, this is just absurdly bad politics based on sheer arrogance.

It does have me thinking though - maybe republican leadership has already given up on Trump's re-election chances and wants to prioritize what they can do before Trump's out of office. Trump's justification for delaying the stimulus is that he wants to focus on the SCOTUS nomination (because he somehow can't do both?). Polling shows voters overwhelmingly agree that the winner of the election should appoint the next justice, and idk the stats on this but I'd imagine voters overwhelmingly want a new stimulus package. But if Trump's going to lose anyway, the SCOTUS nomination is definitely best for the republican agenda. I wouldn't be surprised if Mitch etc are just recognizing the situation and pushing Trump to do what they want instead of what will help his election.

 

[bruthead]

Trump looks like he's getting desperate. The way he has handled testing positive has been totally chaotic and irresponsible.

All elections are decided by the relatively few swing voters. Sure, there's 40% of voters who back the Dems no matter what and 40% who back the Republicans no matter what. But to the people in the middle I really think Trump looks like a car crash these last 10 days. And the polls are reflecting that.

 

[longway]

Last few posts are classic echo chamber takes. Trump is just being Trump.

Watching bits of VP debate, pence doing well. Harris still doing that smug smiling and shaking her head thing while Pence talking, this is not a good look for her.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

A fly sat on pence's head. He lost.

 

[TrueAscension]

Who said irresponsible? Sounds like you're capping him -500 at least so you should be going balls deep. But whatever, you're probably one of those guys who consistently 'analyse' things and never translate it into an investment opportunity.

No I’m a winning gambler who doesn’t pay -500 juice on stupid shit, especially when it’s in the hands of the American people.

Also what makes you think I cap anyone as a favorite?

 

[loller90278]

No I’m a winning gambler who doesn’t pay -500 juice on stupid shit, especially when it’s in the hands of the American people.

Also what makes you think I cap anyone as a favorite?

 

[Joedaman55]

I think it's shitty behavior but tbh I don't like either side taking moral high grounds on it. I remember all the threats and effigy burnings of Obama, and politicians like Ilhan Omar are getting death threats daily. It's totally inappropriate whether it's to them or to someone like Trump.

I'm an anti-Trump guy though. Most of what I've seen from friends (and myself included) is that we'd rather Trump live to watch himself lose than to die a martyr.

Yeah, it’s the saddest part of society when you see stuff like that. I remember seeing some hardcore Republicans going after Obama like he was a terrorist which was ridiculous.

 

[Joedaman55]

Pretty boring debate, Pence was much better than her in my opinion. She just has some brutal body language which I can’t believe she hasn’t fixed.

Doubt anything changed because I can’t remember anything big from either side besides the normal policy differences between parties. I mean maybe some people got swayed based on Kamala’s mannerisms but it’d be small.

 

[longway]

^Whoriss cratered as she normally does, but not sure if it will make a difference.

Pretty boring debate, Pence was much better than her in my opinion. She just has some brutal body language which I can’t believe she hasn’t fixed.

Doubt anything changed because I can’t remember anything big from either side besides the normal policy differences between parties. I mean maybe some people got swayed based on Kamala’s mannerisms but it’d be small.

I think there were things that could affect how people vote, but I wonder if the trump style debates are what actually moves the needle. Of course, you can say it backfired on him, but this style leaves a lasting impression.