Hope the line for Trump goes to +200. It's only at +170 currently.
Looking forward to seeing Biden/Harris get crushed in November.
Dont want to bet too much, as there is a high chance of the results to be contested all the way to scotus, and who knows what that will throw up.
hot take: biden will win in a landslide and results wont need to be ushered up to the courts
That's what it is looking like, but how much you going to bet on it?
hehe zero! I'm just basing that on history on similar situations that we're in now but sometimes history doesn't repeat itself. Don't have too much confidence in that take.
I think the "shy trump voters" from 2016 will actually be "shy trump voters who refrained from voting" this time around
Maybe the polls will be right in the end, but given that Hiden is supposed to be ahead by a huge margin, nationally at least, does this make sense?
You would think ether would be some enthusiasm about the hero poised to sweep the hated drumpf out of office. But no, its more like a grim death march, with no enthusiasm for him, he is just an empty vessel to carry their hatred of trump. It's pretty sad.
At least trump voters are voting out of love, hiden voters are voting out of hate.
That first video is literally an edit lol. Surprised you didn't notice that. But Biden's purposefully holding small, sometimes invite-only rallies due to covid. Trump's been facing backlash for putting large crowds together and I don't really see it positively impacting his votes in the end.
I wouldn't argue that Biden has tons of enthusiasm in favor for him, but he's at least more well-liked than Hillary and the enthusiasm against Trump hasn't died down.
How can he be well-liked if no-one wants to see him? Small events are one thing, but the lack of interest in him is puzzling, he hardly does any campaigning, so seeing him should be a rare opportunity. He is poised to be POTUS, yet there are hardly any gawkers turning up to see the guy in the flesh. edited or not, the story that the small crowds are purposeful doesn't hold up, they would still be needing to turn people away.
I think you are agreeing with me in a roundabout way. you say enthusiasm against trump, it means hatred for trump. Hatred alone doesn't usually win elections, there has to be something worth voting for.
Even in normal times drawing a huge crowd doesn't make you a winner, it just means you have a passionate base.
From my understanding they're either invite-only or registration-only, you can't just show up to them. I think it's pretty clear why they're holding small events.
And hatred can absolutely win elections when there's that kind of disparity.
Consider your guess confirmed. I have a tinge of skepticism only bc of how wrong everyone was in ‘16, but if you just can’t believe he can lose, you’re not just in denial, you’re officially delusional. Nate has his chances < 15% right now.I guess i must be in denial, but i just cant believe trump will lose.
Didn't virtually every debate poll have Biden winning the debate by 20-30 points? Even a lot of right-wing pundits were basically like "Trump was embarrassingly bad". There were right-leaning focus groups calling him a crackhead. I haven't seen any swaying aside from conservatives questioning their vote.
While I think Trump is a piss poor debater, I think he uses some good tactics, but a lot of them are starting to fall flat, especially when he now has to defend his presidential record instead of bullshitting his way through. He's doing awfully bad now and debates are only furthering his decline.
Consider your guess confirmed. I have a tinge of skepticism only bc of how wrong everyone was in ‘16, but if you just can’t believe he can lose, you’re not just in denial, you’re officially delusional. Nate has his chances < 15% right now.
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I am not saying that he isn't holding small events. I am saying that even if they were holding small events, there would be people just turning up and hanging out and cheering, outside those already there. There is very little of that. There is nothing other than polls to indicate that he is ahead by a huge margin. It doesn't make sense. Having a passionate base is a good sign, not the only sign of course, but you can't ignore it. In 2016, it turned out that crowd size was a better indicator than the polling.
I could be wrong, of course, and I will have to eat humble pie and take some losses if I am, but I think this race is going to go down to the wire, at the very least they are under polling trump support. Actually, they could be overestimating Hiden support. At over 50% nationally and in some battlegrounds, his campaign should be buzzing, but there is just nothing there.
Lol those same pundits said the same stuff while he continued to steamroll through his competition, that has not changed. Most hardcore Republicans originally thought he was sent to destroy the party. Those “experts” are awful predictors and way out of touch with most Americans.
Yeah, you got good odds. Well, of course he can lose. But I don't believe he will lose, that's not the same thing.
His estimate is based on polling, what if the polling is off? The value on the Hiden line is still wildly good. The question is why? Either Trump is being hyped bc of his 2016 win, or the betting market is not just looking at the polls, which is what I think. Silver is postulating unpresidented changes in voting patterns, but there is no sign of this anywhere except in the polls.
Good luck with your wagers. We are on different sides, but I hope whoever has the best read wins.