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Post Your UFN 85 Bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 6, 2016.

  1. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Goodluck with it mate! Sounds really good. Sucks about the £400 you thought you had won though lol. But still great job on the profits. May I ask whjy dio you only wanna bet on cards you´re not confident on? Thats sounds a bit weird, is it because you´re then looking at the fight and not biased by already having made up your mind or something? Im a new bettor, so just trying to get to know all this lb strategies.

    Seems overal lits been a bad night for alot of people. My biggest loss was on Carlos Junior, I did a stupid mistake of betting 10u more so i had 13.5u on that fight, i did it to recover a bit of a loss from the seoham fight (which was really suprising to me she lost 27-30). and ofc Junior messed up. He definitely didn´t look like a -500 favorite i gotta say, after the first round you could see how tired he was. Should probably had been lb that fight because Daiel Kelly´s linevalues must have been really good - would this had been an alright call? As far as ive gathered aslong as you feel the percentages of chance of winning is better than the bookmakers say, you should go more heavily on that than on a favorites whos lines might not even be profitable due to the high percentages they´re required to win?

    Congratz to all the winners. And hope for us losers we get some good nights soon. Lost now the past 3 events huge. "it can´t get any worse" stratregy just doenst work for me LOL.
     
  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Sorry dude thjnk you git wring end of stick. I will pre bet cards where i have strong leans but for cards such as the next one coming up i have no strong leans so i will only lb it. Going with my gut has always worked for me so if i look at a card and have no strong leans i will lb only now. Ive won lb on six straight shows ive never really got into it properly before. Thank God for lb cos my pre bets have fell to shit since the turn of the year.

    Dont chase dude easier said then done but its a bad idea. Ez seems to be the master at accepting a bad night and moving on and he makes solid profit year in year out.
     
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ps the guys with access to 5d got Kelly +600 end of r2. Us Brits had about +300 but i hesitated like an idiot.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    HUGE night. Poker game got cancelled and so happy it did as I crushed LB. +700 Kelly saved my ass on that fight after rd 2. Loaded up on Magny after rd 1 +135 (got rejected at +160 and +150 grrr LOL) figuring Lombard's tank was close to empty, and it was. 5d also gifted me that Pearson by dec at +245 and never cancelled it even though they took it down right after I bet it and put it back up at WAY lower. They paid me. Also had hedged Bosse rd 1 to cover my Te Huna losses plus hit this little beauty:

    Parlay Hunt.PNG

    All told up 18.3u. Long break now but good to step away for a bit sometimes. Wish it was only a couple weeks though...
     
  5. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    sorry, man >< chin up.. we've all been there

    grats all winners
     
  6. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    he was 800, then 700, then 660, then 620 on 5d all between rd 2 and rd 3.

    i tried to bet it 100x. never got one through (my friend gave me 10 bux of his +660, tho! hehe)
     
  7. null Gold Belt

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    Pretty disappointing to pick Neil Magny winning in round 3 so big and still end up losing money. Seo Hee Ham was just too undersized against Bec Rawlings even though I think she's a better fighter. Few other fights didn't go my way too. Totally underestimated Steve Bosse for example. Props to Daniel Kelly for exceeding all expectations again. Sucks to wait three weeks for the next UFC card. At least I have five hundy coming to me from Tapology.

    UFN 85 Results


    Frank Mir (+150) vs Mark Hunt $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00
    Frank Mir/Mark Hunt Over 1½ (-110) $110.00 for $100.00= -$110.00
    Frank Mir wins by submission (+305) $50.00 for $152.50= -$50.00
    Frank Mir wins by 5 round decision (+1416) $50.00 for $708.00= -$50.00
    Neil Magny (-120) vs Hector Lombard $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Neil Magny wins in round 3 (+1300) $10.00 for $130.00= $130.00
    Neil Magny wins in round 3 (+1550) $50.00 for $775.00= $775.00
    Johnny Case (-115) vs Jake Matthews $115.00 for $100.00= -$115.00
    Antonio Carlos Junior-3½ points (-375) vs Daniel Kelly $187.50 for $50.00= -$187.50
    James Te Huna (-230) vs Steve Bosse $230.00 for $100.00= -$230.00
    James Te Huna wins by submission (+568) $20.00 for $113.60= -$20.00
    James Te Huna wins by 3 round decision (+529) $60.00 for $317.40= -$60.00
    Seo Hee Ham (-120) vs Bec Rawlings $120.00 for $100.00= -$120.00
    Seo Hee Ham (-105) vs Bec Rawlings $105.00 for $100.00= -$105.00
    Seo Hee Ham wins by 3 round decision (+150) $66.67 for $100.00= -$66.67
    Live In-Play Seo Hee Ham (+400) vs Bec Rawlings $50.00 for $200.00= -$50.00
    Bec Rawlings scorecards = no action (-195) vs Seo Hee Ham $195.00 for $100.00= Cancelled

    Brendan O'Reilly (+415) vs Alan Jouban $40.00 for $166.00= -$40.00
    Brendan O'Reilly +3½ points (+240) vs Alan Jouban $40.00 for $96.00= -$40.00
    Brendan O'Reilly wins by 3 round decision (+700) $40.00 for $280.00= -$40.00
    Not Alan Jouban wins in round 1 (-140) $105.00 for $75.00= -$105.00
    Dan Hooker/Mark Eddiva Over 2½ (-137) $54.80 for $40.00= -$54.80
    Rin Nakai (+135) vs Leslie Smith $50.00 for $67.50= -$50.00
    Rin Nakai wins by 3 round decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00
    Richard Walsh (-110) vs Viscardi Andrade $55.00 for $50.00= -$55.00
    Richard Walsh/Viscardi Andrade Over 2½ (-147) $73.50 for $50.00= $50.00

    Ross Pearson (+100) vs Chad Laprise $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Ross Pearson scorecards = no action (+105) vs Chad Laprise $75.00 for $78.75= Cancelled
    Ross Pearson/Chad Laprise Over 2½ (-240) $120.00 for $50.00= $50.00
    Ross Pearson/Chad Laprise goes 3 round distance (-205) $102.50 for $50.00= $50.00
    Alan Patrick -3½ points (-150) vs Damien Brown $60.00 for $40.00= $40.00
    Alan Patrick wins in round 1 (+325) $25.00 for $81.25= -$25.00
    Alan Patrick wins by submission (+528) $20.00 for $105.60= -$20.00
    Alan Patrick wins inside distance (+150) $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00

    Fights to go distance over 5½ (-104) $41.60 for $40.00= -$41.60
    Fights to go distance over 6½ (+266) $25.00 for $66.50= -$25.00
    Fights to go distance over 7½ (+732) $15.00 for $109.80= -$15.00
    Fights to go distance over 8½ (+2525) $10.00 for $252.50= -$10.00
    Fights to go distance over 9½ (+11700) $5.00 for $585.00= -$5.00

    Seo Hee Ham/Bec Rawlings FOTN award winner (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00= -$10.00

    Parlay:
    Seo Hee Ham/Bec Rawlings Over 2½ (-225) + Antonio Carlos Junior (-500) vs Daniel Kelly $136.50 for $100.10= -$136.50
    -----
    Total Loss= -$723.07
     
  8. Michaelangelo That doesn't work for me, brother Platinum Member

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    Thankfully I didn't bet on Lombard

    I keep falling his hype
     
  9. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    I made a good result, plus 24 units. A few things messed up, had Te Huna in a pretty sweet parlay as well as Case Mathews not ITD and Case, on the other hand I made quite a lot on the Bosse KO (Thank you MMA Vivisection for that one). I got Magny a long time ago for 2.00, and I just put on 4U (I work 1-10U).

    1U is very little money, I mostly bet for the excitement and to boost my ability to call fights, so now I won about 9 bucks... But hey, thats a lunch!

    I recently started tracking all my bets on http://www.spreadsheet.se/axelhult which is quite nice to see the history backwards.
     
  10. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Makes good sense, thanks for the tips dude, really appreciate it. Indeed Ezflyer, and also his pal Jimgunn seems to be good at that. When I read about all the new bettors and their mistakes, I sadly had to nod to nearly every single mistake, i.e using the whole bankroll event after event, chasing losses etc. Luckily there was some of my betting money i could not use that i wanted to use, thank god or i´d had lost them too. LB to me sounds to be the way to really get some edges and handicap the matches compared to the bookies. Props to you for going on a six traight streak, thats really impressive. And tbh then its just a matter of how big eahc of your unit sizes are and you´ll make al ot oof dough. I´ll try and do some lb next time for very little money just to see if i can start calling fights.

    When you do lb, do you try and just pick the winner? or will you, lets say in the Daniel Kelly fight, seeing Kelly coming out of the second round, doing pretty decent and landing some good shots, would you et him despite tstill thinking he´d lose, as perhaps the bookies give him a 3.0 chance than the original 3.5, but you feel he shold be close to the 2.0 odds, then his line would be really good to bet even if he´d lose right?

    I can´t see myself be doing this as im awful at valuing line values when im so new, but trying to pick the winners sounds pretty good. especially a fatigued and exhausted lombard he might have crazy good odds coming out of a first round ike that, but we all know from all the other fights that goes so hard in ro1 like mcgregor that they are fatigued, so perhaps a good betting option again.
    I´ll try look at that and see if that is a factor worth considering, it sounds pretty good on paper. Any pros having experience with this? I just heard you should only lb if you know the fighters really well, but i guess you dont need to, it just makes you more experienced, but perhaps even biased who knows.
     
  11. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Take this with a grain of salt since I am from Sweden and thus have to see all the fights in the middle of the night when the brain isnt really performing at top level. My experience is that I am pretty bad at calling fights and finding value at live betting, of course you can sometimes get a Fight ITD, or catch the turning of tides before the oddsmakers does it, but overall my live-betting have been going minus. It is still fun though, so I try to limit myself to smaller bets. In hindsight the Lombard-fight was a good call after round 1, but looking back it felt like Magny could have just as easy been clipped again. I am in no means an expert at this, but its my 5 cents on it.
     
  12. zomb No soap for you Platinum Member

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    I lost maybe $400-500 on the event.

    I had a bet on Soo He Ham on ComeOn and they graded it as a win, I cashed out everything and got my money on Neteller. Now my balance on ComeOn says -$350 haha. in your face
     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    The bookies often make mistakes on lb that's what i love. They actually called Magny right which really surprised me he was only +120 after r1. But for example Magny was +250 after round 2 against Erick Silva. Elkins was +400 after r1 in his last fight even tho it was obvious Skelly was gassed and the tide was turning. Diego Ferreria was +250 I think after round 2 against OAM even tho the fight was even and very competitve. But other fights they cap better but you have to pick up on signs. I smashed Matthews line at evens after round 2 against Case. In my book it was 1-1 and Case won round 2 but he was hurt to the body twice and took an age to stand up at the end of round 2 it was pretty clear to me he was there for the taking. Start small and see how you get on over the course of a few shows.
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    The biggest key to success in live betting to me is finding the balance between what you've seen so far and what you know of each fighter bases on their history and the tendencies you've picked up on while capping the fight for your pre fight bets. Sometimes the books are on top of it, sometimes not. Obviously you don't have much time at all to process the value (or lack of value) in the lines that get set.

    Lombard/Magny is a good case study imo (and was already brought up and just happened so makes is easy to use as an example). After Magny survived rd 1 and seemed to have recovered okay by the end of the round I immediately capped the fight about even in my own head. I thought Lombard probably got a 10-8 round 1 (I was wrong, no judges gave him one which is bonkers but regardless) but I know Lombard's gas tank history and Magny's. I also know that even with a solid gas tank you can't throw THAT many power shots trying to finish a guy and still have much left in the tank. I knew Magny was fine. I was pretty sure Magny would take over (and he did, although Hector did drop him again in rd 2 before Neil started dominating) but didn't know if he could finish and thought there was a chance for a possible draw if rd was 10-8 Lombard and Magny won rds 2 and 3. So all this I processed the instant rd 1 ended and capped the fight even as I checked the odds on 5d. They had Magny +160 which I thought was a huge gift. Tried to bet it, rejected. It had dropped to +150. Tried again. Nope. Third time the charm and I got him at +135. I was okay with it. But all of that was in about a 30 second span. So you have to get used to capping it very quickly and going with it. There's guys here that live bet better than I do for sure.

    The other fight Sat that a lot of us nailed in live bet was Kelly +600 to +800 after rd 2. (I got +700). We thought (wrongly) that Kelly may have won rd 2 and Shoeface was MAYBE fading. And at those crazy odds had to take a stab. The books were right when it came to the scorecards (Shoeface was up 2 rounds on all of the judges cards) but Kelly stopped him in rd 3.

    I'm going to give you a future fight that I will be VERY interested in live betting. Maia/Brown. After rd 2 (assuming fight still going) will be the key spot imo. Need to pay very close attention to how much energy Maia has used and how tired he looks if he's grapplefucked Matt for the first 2 rounds. If Maia looks just dead tired, Matt could be a great live bet at crazy odds as he can turn it on late and Maia is known to fade after 2 rounds if he's had to really work early in the fight. Or, if Maia doesn't look tired and Brown hasn't seemed to make him work too much Maia could be good value even at steep odds since if he's still relatively fresh he's just one takedown away from the fight essentially being over.

    This was long, sorry. Hope you get something out of it though.
     

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