Private Sherdog betting pool

[elwani]

If I make a private betting pool exclusively for Sherdog, would anyone bet in it?

Here is how it would work.

First it would be exclusive to Sherdog in the sense that only members of a certain belt level, join date, and like count to post ratio can participate (basically to make sure you really are a Sherdog member).

Second there will be no odds set by bookmakers. All the money that everyone bets is collected in a giant pool. Then after the contest, the entire pool is divided among the winners proportional to how much they bet. So for example, if John and Tom bets $4 and $6 that Khabib wins and Jane and Janet bets $3 and $7 that Dustin wins, the total pool would be $20. If Khabib wins John gets $8 and Tom gets $12 back, while Jane and Janet loose what they bet. This is called parimutuel betting, and is actually substantially more fair than the sports books you see online and in Vegas, since those odds are set by teams of professional statisticians that choose them so that no one but the sports book makes money in the long run. In parimutuel betting, the odds are completely determined by the bettors.

Assume I can do this in a way that the trustworthiness of the system is beyond question, that is, you can be sure that the system operates by the rules as described above.

Would you participate in this?

 

[ZOD66]

I bet people will drink more alcohol next week when Cerrone will fight

 

[loisestrad]

only members of a certain belt level, join date, and like count to post ratio can participate (basically to make sure you really are a Sherdog member).

Your joindate is ridiculous, your amount of likes is laughable, your belt is ugly. You wouldn't be able to participate if you didn't organize it.

Edit: was just kidding, not trying to stir up shit.

 

[elwani]

I bet people will drink more alcohol next week when Cerrone will fight

In fact with this kind of betting, you can create a bet for anything as long as there are people willing to bet against you and the outcome can clearly be determined.

With the sports book kind of betting this is much harder to do since the sports book needs to be able to do statistical analysis on the odds so that they will make sure they can make money in the long run (at the expense of the bettors).

 

[elwani]

Your joindate is ridiculous, your amount of likes is laughable, your belt is ugly. You wouldn't be able to participate if you didn't organize it.

At least I don’t pay to post on Sherdog.

 

[Avenchi]

Just bet all the money on touching gloves.

 

[elwani]

Just bet all the money on touching gloves.

Yeah you can easily create a betting pool for this.

 

[sonofjay817]

Its an interesting concept. I've never heard of this. So basically, the winners' profit is determined by how many losers that bet the other side. Yeah, its in an intriguing idea. I would potentially be interested assuming there was a reliable way to set it up. Would there be no built in juice for your time and trouble. I realize that's exactly what you're trying to get away from, but you should get something, if nothing else, just to reasonably compensate your time. Are you in the US? Have you considered the potential legal issues? Would I qualify? This is my first double yellow and it was unjustified in my opinion.

 

[Ramon Antonio]

Do people really trust another Sherdogger to hold on to their money?

 

[cmw43]

And who would be the trustworthy individual looking after the juicy pot of money?

 

[Zeta Reticuli]

 

[elwani]

Its an interesting concept. I've never heard of this. So basically, the winners' profit is determined by how many losers that bet the other side. Yeah, its in an intriguing idea.

It's actually a betting system that is quite old and already widely used around the world (see Wikipedia), sometimes when the betting market is set up by governments that is not as interested in profit and doing it more to meet public demand. For example, it is used to bet on horse racing in Hong Kong and was set up by the HK government.

I would potentially be interested assuming there was a reliable way to set it up. Would there be no built in juice for your time and trouble. I realize that's exactly what you're trying to get away from, but you should get something, if nothing else, just to reasonably compensate your time.

What many people don't realize with the online and Vegas sportsbooks is that they are actually taking out something around 10% for every bet you make. It may not be obvious how they're doing it but be sure they're doing it (read more here if you don't know and are interested). Yes, there may be a small charge to cover transaction and operating costs, but it would be substantially lower than 10%, maybe 1-2%. It would be like paying say 1-2 cents to make a $1 bet rather than 8-10 cents. And again I want to point out, the odds are purely determined by other Sherdoggers, not teams of Ph.D.'s working for the sportsbook conglomerates whose job all day is to set odds that make it impossible for you to make money in the long run.

Are you in the US? Have you considered the potential legal issues?

This is an idea that came from discussion in another thread and I just want to see if there's any interest right now. To be frank, if this was done, I doubt it would be large enough to warrant any legal oversight. The pools will probably just be a few thousand dollars at most. It would mostly be for fun I think, a chance for Sherdoggers to bet against other Sherdoggers, without paying some sportsbook conglomerate. But on the other hand, it can easily be located on servers outside of US. US is also in the process of legalizing online sports betting I believe.

Would I qualify? This is my first double yellow and it was unjustified in my opinion.

Yes you would quality. My idea on the post count/like count/join date cutoff is not meant to be some elitist snub, it's just so people who aren't really Sherdog members, who don't participate in the discussions on this forum, can't just create a white belt account, spam post, and join the pool to try to make money, thereby ruining it for everyone else in the pool.

 

[NatoHoro]

At least I don’t pay to post on Sherdog.

 

[elwani]

Do people really trust another Sherdogger to hold on to their money?

And who would be the trustworthy individual looking after the juicy pot of money?

Yes, this is an obvious point, but technology is at a point where you might not have to.

For example, you might write code to receive bets, hold the money, and pay the winners at the end. You can pay to have this code reviewed by a reputable code reviewer (such companies exist with established reputations) to certify that it does what it claims to. Then you can give the code and certificate to another company that runs the certified code and guarantees the code cannot be changed once it starts running (such companies also exist), this is kind of like putting the code in escrow. At this point, as long as you trust the code, which is certified, you can be sure no one can just take the money.

So the only thing that requires trust is that someone has to tell the code what the result is afterwards, and you have to trust this person or group of people. This can be done, for example, by establishing a trusted group who all tell the code what the result is after the event happens, and the code can, for example, accept the result that is selected by the majority or only accept an unanimous result (returning the money if a result cannot be established). This group can be motivated to do this promptly and accurately by compensating them for their troubles from the pool, but only if a result is agreed upon.

 

[genecop]

I would trust enough to give it a go, yea..

 

[The Witcher]

You have my curiosity

 

[mkess101]

If I make a private betting pool exclusively for Sherdog, would anyone bet in it?

Here is how it would work.

First it would be exclusive to Sherdog in the sense that only members of a certain belt level, join date, and like count to post ratio can participate (basically to make sure you really are a Sherdog member).

Second there will be no odds set by bookmakers. All the money that everyone bets is collected in a giant pool. Then after the contest, the entire pool is divided among the winners proportional to how much they bet. So for example, if John and Tom bets $4 and $6 that Khabib wins and Jane and Janet bets $3 and $7 that Dustin wins, the total pool would be $20. If Khabib wins John gets $8 and Tom gets $12 back, while Jane and Janet loose what they bet. This is called parimutuel betting, and is actually substantially more fair than the sports books you see online and in Vegas, since those odds are set by teams of professional statisticians that choose them so that no one but the sports book makes money in the long run. In parimutuel betting, the odds are completely determined by the bettors.

Assume I can do this in a way that the trustworthiness of the system is beyond question, that is, you can be sure that the system operates by the rules as described above.

Would you participate in this?

Like anything else, there's good and bad with parimutual betting. You laid out the good (and from what I see nothing you said is wrong). The bad is that the odds are constantly fluctuating based on action on either side of a bet AND you are unable to lock in odds that you like.

For example: Right now Dustin is around +350, so betting $100 on him returns your original $100 bet plus $350 profit, $450 total. If I place that wager right now, I'm locked in at those odds, no matter how much action goes on either side to move the line. In a parimutual pool, I can blindly throw my $100 in there on Dustin and hope there's over 3x as much action on Khabib, but that's all I'm doing...hoping. And obviously the potential is there that I get even better odds on Dustin too, so there is of course the potential for upside.

I probably wouldn't participate (I spent a lot of years betting MMA profitably but am on an extended break) but for small stakes it's a fun idea. I hope you get it up and running and people have fun with it. Good luck.

 

[Ramon Antonio]

Yes, this is an obvious point, but technology is at a point where you might not have to.

For example, you might write code to receive bets, hold the money, and pay the winners at the end. You can pay to have this code reviewed by a reputable code reviewer (such companies exist with established reputations) to certify that it does what it claims to. Then you can give the code and certificate to another company that runs the certified code and guarantees the code cannot be changed once it starts running (such companies also exist), this is kind of like putting the code in escrow. At this point, as long as you trust the code, which is certified, you can be sure no one can just take the money.

So the only thing that requires trust is that someone has to tell the code what the result is afterwards, and you have to trust this person or group of people. This can be done, for example, by establishing a trusted group who all tell the code what the result is after the event happens, and the code can, for example, accept the result that is selected by the majority or only accept an unanimous result (returning the money if a result cannot be established). This group can be motivated to do this promptly and accurately by compensating them for their troubles from the pool.

It's technically possible yes.

Then next question is, how much would such a system cost? How much would the betting fee be?

 

[Ramon Antonio]

Like anything else, there's good and bad with parimutual betting. You laid out the good (and from what I see nothing you said is wrong). The bad is that the odds are constantly fluctuating based on action on either side of a bet AND you are unable to lock in odds that you like.

For example: Right now Dustin is around +350, so betting $100 on him returns your original $100 bet plus $350 profit, $450 total. If I place that wager right now, I'm locked in at those odds, no matter how much action goes on either side to move the line. In a parimutual pool, I can blindly throw my $100 in there on Dustin and hope there's over 3x as much action on Khabib, but that's all I'm doing...hoping. And obviously the potential is there that I get even better odds on Dustin too, so there is of course the potential for upside.

I probably wouldn't participate (I spent a lot of years betting MMA profitably but am on an extended break) but for small stakes it's a fun idea. I hope you get it up and running and people have fun with it. Good luck.

You raise valid points. Maybe P2P betting makes more sense, and websites implementing that technology already exist.

 

[elwani]

Like anything else, there's good and bad with parimutual betting. You laid out the good (and from what I see nothing you said is wrong). The bad is that the odds are constantly fluctuating based on action on either side of a bet AND you are unable to lock in odds that you like.

For example: Right now Dustin is around +350, so betting $100 on him returns your original $100 bet plus $350 profit, $450 total. If I place that wager right now, I'm locked in at those odds, no matter how much action goes on either side to move the line. In a parimutual pool, I can blindly throw my $100 in there on Dustin and hope there's over 3x as much action on Khabib, but that's all I'm doing...hoping. And obviously the potential is there that I get even better odds on Dustin too, so there is of course the potential for upside.

I probably wouldn't participate (I spent a lot of years betting MMA profitably but am on an extended break) but for small stakes it's a fun idea. I hope you get it up and running and people have fun with it. Good luck.

What you write is true, but I think whether it is an advantage or disadvantage depends on what kind of bettor you are.

If you are a professional bettor who is building statistical models to calculate the specific odds, then I agree with you that being unable to lock in the odds can be a disadvantage (or course you can somewhat mitigate this by betting close to the pool closing, which I'm sure you know).

But if you're a bettor who is betting for fun, who just wants to bet for the guy you support or feel in your gut is going to win, I think this can be an advantage, because it discourages the participation of the previous kind of professional bettor. That is, if you're just betting with your heart but still want a decent chance to win over the long run, you want to bet only against other people who are just betting with their heart. By discouraging the participation of "professionals", you might get closer to that with pari-mutuel.

Thanks for your good wishes.