International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V15

[Denter]

IMHO yes
They had used a lot of missiles and drones.
This will reduce public attention to Ukraine and ....Israel definitely will order a lot of air defense missiles...
This will reduce number of missiles Ukraine might get ( for example the same Patriot missiles ).

The issue is that the US cannot make these things quickly or cheaply enough. Outside of a big reindustrialization effort, the obvious play would be to outsource patriot interceptor production to somewhere that can make them fast and cheap.

I've read that they subbed out the new Patriot interceptor missile production to Romania, but this isn't due to come online until 2026.

 

[Strychnine]

CHINESE PROFESSOR: 4 REASONS WHY RUSSIA IS SURE TO LOSE IN UKRAINE || 2024​

 

[SandisLL]

The issue is that the US cannot make these things quickly or cheaply enough. Outside of a big reindustrialization effort, the obvious play would be to outsource patriot interceptor production to somewhere that can make them fast and cheap.

I've read that they subbed out the new Patriot interceptor missile production to Romania, but this isn't due to come online until 2026.

They will attempt to purchase missiles that already are produced and not likely will worry about price....
& Patriot isn't panacea as standalone system but Isrel had integrated this in their air defense network and does have experience to use them. Therefore will sneak to get some batches quickly..
They also does have Iron Dome, Arrow3 and this David's sling plus Barak and Spyder etc stuff.

Also Israel does have a lot of different radars ....looks that they didn't had mothballed even old radars from 1960 ies and also does have new and very modern ones...
So most likely they also does have autocannons even from 70 ies etc stuff too. Maybe some older model missiles from 70 ies era too had been refubrished and placed in storage....ofc these aren't Patriot and still....for example old ancient KUB if modernized at least might take out motorbike type drone etc stuff ...by using cheap missile produced and paid for long ago.

 

[SandisLL]

I think Zelensky is crying for PATRIOT, SAMP-T because they are running out from S-300 missiles stockpile ....and this is cos these gliding bombs dropped without entering Ukr controlled area and also these cruise missiles and ballistic....
For " motorbikes " such stuff isn't used because isn't designed to deal with slow! L
low flying cheap stuff + expenses for such missiles are huge.
Also cos cheaper stuff is more available it is better solution to deal with cheap drones.

 

[Bacco]

I've read that they subbed out the new Patriot interceptor missile production to Romania, but this isn't due to come online until 2026.

Romania does'nt seem the smartest pick, but who i am to judge

 

[SandisLL]

Romania does'nt seem the smartest pick, but who i am to judge

Japan. Germany.

Romania now is pro western because they had worse life than in Moldova in early 1991 th.... now stuff is damn opposite for a reason. And this isn't cos subsidies at all.
Access to EU markets as full member.
Investors were more willing to open companies, invest in companies and make deposits In Romania..because they should implement conventions about investors rights protection.....like EU country. Unlike with Moldova where you might get some populist or KIM No2 elected and you as investor might be told that ...thank you and STFU, today is confiscation....

 

[Bacco]

Japan. Germany.

Romania now is pro western because they had worse life than in Moldova in early 1991 th.... now stuff is damn opposite for a reason. And this isn't cos subsidies at all.
Access to EU markets as full member.
Investors were more willing to open companies, invest in companies and make deposits In Romania..because they should implement conventions about investors rights protection.....like EU country. Unlike with Moldova where you might get some populist or KIM No2 elected and you as investor might be told that ...thank you and STFU, today is confiscation....

I was thinking mostly 3 things

- Seems very near to places where Russia may have big influence/infiltration like Moldavia and Serbia and even russians themselves may get there with regular forces if Ukraine crumble

-Iirc have terrible roads/transports infrastructure, if you want send the toys fast where are needed, even small sabotages may slow down it a lot

-i'm not sure romanian army would be able to defend well the transports and the toy factory itself


I mean for sure i believe reinforce Romania and Moldavia is something that should be done and that at least on public informations/speech seems to be underrated issue (but again, who knows what real shit truly is), but not sure i would pick these as a place where store highly important strategic goods, unless are just few of the many in the eastern euro area

Basically would like the idea of build toys in Romania(because in terms of pure distance create them close to where are needed) if whole project was based on heavy american/english army presence, and the west starts tomorrow (early morning) the works to make it a more functional area

 

[Osculater]

Beautiful I'm might visit one day

 

[SandisLL]

I was thinking mostly 3 things

- Seems very near to places where Russia may have big influence/infiltration like Moldavia and Serbia and even russians themselves may get there with regular forces if Ukraine crumble

-Iirc have terrible roads/transports infrastructure, if you want send the toys fast where are needed, even small sabotages may slow down it a lot

-i'm not sure romanian army would be able to defend well the transports and the toy factory itself


I mean for sure i believe reinforce Romania and Moldavia is something that should be done and that at least on public informations/speech seems to be underrated issue (but again, who knows what real shit truly is), but not sure i would pick these as a place where store highly important strategic goods, unless are just few of the many in the eastern euro area

Basically would like the idea of build toys in Romania(because in terms of pure distance create them close to where are needed) if whole project was based on heavy american/english army presence, and the west starts tomorrow (early morning) the works to make it a more functional area

In Germany I think that sabotages risk is not lesser: at least 1,5 m " Russian speakers ", long term interest about their officials and politicians from KGB/ GRU ....one former high level politician later even officially worked for Gazprom/ Rosneftj ....

 

[Anewt]

Russian military instructors, air defence system arrive in Niger amid deepening ties

Russian military instructors have arrived in Niger with an air defence system and other equipment as part of the West African nation’s deepening security ties with Moscow, state television announced…

www.france24.com

 

[Ruthless Ryan]

i think he's walking a fine line and is aware of how crazy the right wing is in america. he doesn't want to antagonize them and give them any further motivation.

I agree, and the US asking UKR to not attack Russian oil must piss him off as Moscow Mike is playing games in the white house.

 

[PEB]

Someone please vote these guys out. Yeah the US set this up with Iranian leadership.

"
The House Freedom Caucus is warning GOP leadership not to use Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend as “justification” to send additional aid to Ukraine, as lawmakers in both parties and chambers call on the lower chamber to pass the Senate-approved foreign aid package — which includes support for both Israel and Ukraine.

In an official statement released Monday, the conservative group said the attack is a “bogus justification” to approve more assistance for Ukraine.
"

 

[Orgasmo]

Ill take the bet too.


That being said what are the terms of "surrender" because rest assured the conflict wont end with a clear winner.

Fair enough, as long as you use a Justin Trudeau pic. The one where he made a heart sign as he said the economy grows from the heart.
Wasnt Dec your prediction?

Russia is not going to occupy the entirety of Ukraine and Ukraine isn't getting back any of the occupied territories.

Let's use the capture of entire Donbass as the goal post, which would mean a collapse in Ukranian defenses. We'll use pro-UA DeepStateMAP as reference rather than pro-RU Suriyakmaps to be fair.

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

If Ukraine and Russia agrees to a ceasefire (followed by frozen conflict), we consider it a draw.

My 8 months prediction was made in late November last year, so let's revisit in July. I'm ready. Are you?

 

[PEB]

 

[SandisLL]

I was thinking mostly 3 things

- Seems very near to places where Russia may have big influence/infiltration like Moldavia and Serbia and even russians themselves may get there with regular forces if Ukraine crumble

-Iirc have terrible roads/transports infrastructure, if you want send the toys fast where are needed, even small sabotages may slow down it a lot

-i'm not sure romanian army would be able to defend well the transports and the toy factory itself


I mean for sure i believe reinforce Romania and Moldavia is something that should be done and that at least on public informations/speech seems to be underrated issue (but again, who knows what real shit truly is), but not sure i would pick these as a place where store highly important strategic goods, unless are just few of the many in the eastern euro area

Basically would like the idea of build toys in Romania(because in terms of pure distance create them close to where are needed) if whole project was based on heavy american/english army presence, and the west starts tomorrow (early morning) the works to make it a more functional area

In Serbia not only Russia does have huge influence, also China ....and sometimes more than Russia till level that Serbia instead to opt purchase russian SAM battery opted to pay China and get chinesse SAM battery. It isn't well covered in mass media but China and Iran are increasing real , silent influence in Serbia day by day more and more....silently.. .

Belarus too does have some China's influence and even advocates Putin to increase cooperation with North Korea and Iran....

 

[Cid]

Russia is not going to occupy the entirety of Ukraine and Ukraine isn't getting back any of the occupied territories.

Let's use the capture of entire Donbass as the goal post, which would mean a collapse in Ukranian defenses. We'll use pro-UA DeepStateMAP as reference rather than pro-RU Suriyakmaps to be fair.

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

If Ukraine and Russia agrees to a ceasefire (followed by frozen conflict), we consider it a draw.

My 8 months prediction was made in late November last year, so let's revisit in July. I'm ready. Are you?

The entire donbas?

Russia controls Oleksandrivka?

In 80 odd days?

 

[SandisLL]

Moldavia yes: if Ukr will be done....then Russia will be able to annex them easily. They alone aren't capable to resist even if Estonia had been instead of Russia...and this isn't joke.....
Their approach about military financing is under any critic. They should be taught that 1-1,2% of GDP isn't enough....and to purchase radar isn't air defense.
__
Serbia: there IMHO they might turn them into heavily pro Kremlin oriented if will offer huge discounts for some weapons / commodities supplies and ....without troops installed.
__
Romania due to geography is difficult target to annex all country with ground forces...
It isn't Dumbass...

 

[SandisLL]

Russia ofc now is doing all the best in order to use Ukr lack of air defense and artillery shells cos so called friends are loud talk and little doing with supplies.

While it is fun to worship matushka from distance, it is different thing when arse in in dumbass trenches and nice minefields and beautiful drones a lot.
Ukr had a lot of USSR era mines to install in dumbass....damn a lot.
Also funny IEDs: from stuff created by using hand grenades and modified arty shells till state of art Bobby traps..

Therefore funny is to use westerners stupidity not supply Ukr normally and bomb with bombs and shell with arty some Chasiv Yar village,, another stuff is to put foots on the ground.
Wildlife is active, meat to consume a lot.
After large and powerful IEd stepped on, little remainings resembling human will remain.

 

[SandisLL]

Due to reduced ( IMHO ) with clear intent supplies of arty shells and air defense supplies from russian business partners and friends from west....Ukraine should compensate this by using drones...
And Russia is using radiolectronic warfare systems and a lot of them....

To make relocate some of these to Russia UKR might hit refineries in Russia and Biden's and others concerns doesn't makes sense.
All they had sold Ukr to Russia and everyone with brains see this reality.

 

[SandisLL]

Russia's capacity to produce crude oil Ukraine can't impact at all.
While to produce diesel and gasoline yes.
Since Japan's, EU and U.S refineries capacity is more than sufficient it directly can't impact gasoline prices in EU or U.S or in Japan...

While OPEC and Russia does use another method: to reduce crude oil production from vells in order to rise prices...Iran loves this a lot.