Technic talk and little bit about betting...

[ApplesVild]

I haven't been long in this game, but in my time doing it, I've done EXTREMELY well (if you exclude one horrifically bad, spur of the moment decision to chase my losses and bet a very foolish amount on Till against Masvidal that set me back in a major way). Generally, what I do is spend Thursday, Friday, and Saturday listening to various people's predictions on YouTube and weighing all of that against my own instincts. By fight day, it seems as if my subconscious presses all of that together, shakes it up, and serves it back to me in a deep gut feeling one way or the other. I like informed gut feelings because I'm not smart enough to base it all on conscious analysis, and I really think few people are. I will say this, my gut really let me down on the Till/Masvidal fight. Usually, I have some internal wranglings and mixed feelings and I go back and forth a bit, but every fiber of my being had Till winning that fight which is why I went so hard on it. Lesson learned.

More or less what I do, let those guys do my research for me, listen to the break downs but rarely just tail their picks. I take on board what people on here and YouTube and and podcasts say, pit it all together with some of my own personal opinion and make my picks that way.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Generally, what I do is spend Thursday, Friday, and Saturday listening to various people's predictions on YouTube and weighing all of that against my own instincts. By fight day, it seems as if my subconscious presses all of that together, shakes it up, and serves it back to me in a deep gut feeling one way or the other.

I did this exact thing for a brief period, but didn't stick to it. I was feeling that I couldn't weigh in all of this opinions about the fights correctly. It was all a mess in my head.

I now mostly do this: I watch the 2-3 most recent bouts of the both fighers participating in the fight/s I am interested in betting on. Now I can have a rough opinion. I take my notes to remember what I saw in the fights and just wait for Heavy Hands guys (+Vivis), Jack Slack and occasionally when we talk about the main event - Luke Thomas to give their words. The last guy is super underrated. Many fighters praise him for his breakdowns. He spends a lot of time watching tape on fighters who are in the main event on big cards, and when it comes to that type of fights, I trust him he's done his homework.

After I watch their shows I finally feel I have enough information to make an educated guess who is gonna win. And I am underlining the word guess, because in the end of the day this is what all of our work comes to - we pick somebody and we hope we are right.

Sonofjay817, I have just one question - I get why you bet on Till, but why so much money on a bet in a -300 range, is the risk worth it? I mean, I guess you thought Till should be -800 and -270 or whatever you got it seemed like a steal. Because my biggest bets were on peope that were @ pick 'em odds. This is kinda my thing. My thinking is that to bet large on a fighter that is already a big favourite, I must feel he is wrongly put just a big favourite, and should be realistically an overwhelming, giant favourite. I need value. If I bet Jones on a -300, for example, I have to be absolutely sure he is winning that fight even if he is to sustain major injury and the freakish of the freakish things happens. That is how much I have to believe in a -300 fighter to bet a lot of money on him or her. It's a lot easier to find value on a pick em fight or a slight underdog, than in a favourite.

Look at Mighty Mouse @ One. He was -1200 favourite, did he look like a minus twelve hundred favourite? He won, but god damn, these odds seemed off.

 

[sonofjay817]

I did this exact thing for a brief period, but didn't stick to it. I was feeling that I couldn't weigh in all of this opinions about the fights correctly. It was all a mess in my head.

I now mostly do this: I watch the 2-3 most recent bouts of the both fighers participating in the fight/s I am interested in betting on. Now I can have a rough opinion. I take my notes to remember what I saw in the fights and just wait for Heavy Hands guys (+Vivis), Jack Slack and occasionally when we talk about the main event - Luke Thomas to give their words. The last guy is super underrated. Many fighters praise him for his breakdowns. He spends a lot of time watching tape on fighters who are in the main event on big cards, and when it comes to that type of fights, I trust him he's done his homework.

After I watch their shows I finally feel I have enough information to make an educated guess who is gonna win. And I am underlining the word guess, because in the end of the day this is what all of our work comes to - we pick somebody and we hope we are right.

Sonofjay817, I have just one question - I get why you bet on Till, but why so much money on a bet in a -300 range, is the risk worth it? I mean, I guess you thought Till should be -800 and -270 or whatever you got it seemed like a steal. Because my biggest bets were on peope that were @ pick 'em odds. This is kinda my thing. My thinking is that to bet large on a fighter that is already a big favourite, I must feel he is wrongly put just a big favourite, and should be realistically an overwhelming, giant favourite. I need value. If I bet Jones on a -300, for example, I have to be absolutely sure he is winning that fight even if he is to sustain major injury and the freakish of the freakish things happens. That is how much I have to believe in a -300 fighter to bet a lot of money on him or her. It's a lot easier to find value on a pick em fight or a slight underdog, than in a favourite.

Look at Mighty Mouse @ One. He was -1200 favourite, did he look like a minus twelve hundred favourite? He won, but god damn, these odds seemed off.

No, I think you're exactly right. I made that bone headed move not because of my betting style, but in spite of it. I didn't really like that fight, value-wise, for the reasons you stated and had chose to pass on it. I had set a goal, previously, for myself to increase my bankroll by a certain percentage each event (which I now see that was also dumb, dumb, dumb) and by the time the main event rolled around, I was either at break even or a very modest gain and I took the plunge on the last fight, since I happened to have a very strong feeling about it anyway, to get to my goal. I knew at the time it was boneheaded and any professional better would cringe at the thought but I just thought I could get away with it that one time. It was an emotional decision more than a cerebral one, and of course, that's poison in a game like this. Never chase losses, and don't chase gains, let them come to you. I'm learning and still getting better at this I think, and as much as I hated losing that bet, in the long run, I think it is probably valuable to have the memory of that sick feeling to give me discretion in the future. By the way, are you THE Kyle Stephens of CryptoCoin Mastery?

 

[jrleclerc88]

All in on Poirier, just don't think the odds respect his run and his drive... 549 for 1184. Ill either be crying or smiling after this one

 

[Kyle Stephens]

and don't chase gains, let them come to you.

I never thought about this, but it makes perfect sence!

By the way, are you THE Kyle Stephens of CryptoCoin Mastery?

No.

All in on Poirier

Why all in, tho? Poirier is the underdog, and I would not blame somebody for betting something on him, but all in seems rather wild.

 

[ApplesVild]

All in on Poirier, just don't think the odds respect his run and his drive... 549 for 1184. Ill either be crying or smiling after this one

Why? I would say in very simple terms going by what we know Dustin is more of an all rounder than Holloway, he can do a little bit of everything.. But Holloway is what I'd see as a special case. His striking is on another level, his out put and strikes landed is crazy, plus his take down defence is really good, at least statistically.

I see Holloway starting slow, getting a gauge of what Dustin is looking to do and a feel for his power, and then once he knows the 'level of danger' he will build up his pace and start throwing more.

Recently the only fight Holloway has had where he didn't basically land twice as many strikes than his opponent or more is against Jeremy Stephens, where strikes landed where about even. I think this was because of the threat of Stephens power, so Max adjusted to fight more cautiously, absorbed less big shots and pick his own more carefully. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar fight against Dustin.