Technic talk and little bit about betting...

[Kyle Stephens]

I hit the pause on betting after that really bad Vick bet

(still, it could be a total loss, I was afraid he can lost a bullshit split so hedged some units on Felder by dec, though not enough) and before that Albini fucked me over too. I just had no other option but to stop and recollect myself. Where did I went wrong... how, why? Many questions, many...

I think there is a prevailing number of proofs that having just one deadly weapon is not enough in the modern MMA, especially not at the high level (and/or in a competitive weightclasses). There is the odd Damian Maia here and there, but if you don't have at least two-three reliable tools in your toolbox, you're gonna lose almost all of your big fights. It's uderstandable for a fightfan to drool over the big puncher, or the submission ace, but for a person who actually puts money on this shit, this is downright stupid.

Everybody knows that workman type fighters are the bettor's best friend. One reason is that a lot of the times they are underrated (thus you can take them for cheap), because fans either don't know them, or because the opponent is so fucking hyped. There is of course exceptions, but you generally want to bet on the guy or gal, who will do more and, more importantly is willing to do the dirty non glamorous type of things like grinding, pitter-patter punching to a safe decision and shit like this.

I fell for the big finisher a number of times. And to counter that, I began to bet on the "smart" fighter. Turns out, smart fighter is no better than the all out balls to the wall crazy dude. Smart fighters are too gunshy. They tend to do less work and of course it's more likely to lose on the judges if the fight goes the distance. Either cause they lack the offensive footwork and coordination (technique), or because they are too much in their head. And I really mean when I put smart in quotes. Jon Jones is smart, Max Holloway is smart - shit that Tyron Woodley does is just praying for that one weapon to destroy the opponent, meanwhile he is slowly losing a decision. And he was damn lucky that Usman is not the finisher Marquardt was.

I want to add some recent fights as an example of "worker" fighters beating "finishers".
Kamaru over Tyron
Blagoy over Ben (I know it's debateble, but the judges' decision is king when it comes to betting)
JDS over Lewis
Omari over Tim
Rocco Martin over Sergio
Jorge over Darren
Leon over Gunnar
Marshman over Philips
Diakiese over Duffy

So after that last betting loss I decided to concentrate on my dayjob, still watch tape on UFC fights, but not as fanatically.

Finally I want to use this thread to congratulate @Conor_Is_Overrated for his incredible winstreak at the L-challenge! https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/the-l-challenge-edition-ii.3891805/page-10

 

[nebulousned]

the different frameworks we use to evaluate fights is quite interesting

i don't think slotting fighters into 'types' is really the way to go. at least not purely.

Nagnnou is a finisher for example, he beat the snot out of a lot of workers like Cain.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

the different frameworks we use to evaluate fights is quite interesting

i don't think slotting fighters into 'types' is really the way to go. at least not purely.

Nagnnou is a finisher for example, he beat the snot out of a lot of workers like Cain.

True

But, nebulousned, may I add - it's heavyweight. The weightclass is profoundly uncompetitive. I mean, it's still UFC and there are the best HW that are out there, but the level is jokingly low. We got Black Beast swanging and banging his way to a titlefight. In every other weightclass he would be a prelim fighter if he even manage to stay at the roster for more than a few fights. It's a weird weightclass and rules don't fit so well as in other more normal weightclasses. 265 and 205 are freak divisions IMO. Weird shit happens there. One of the reasons is there are really not stacked and you can get away with shit that will fly nowhere else below 205.

Being a one note counter-puncher (uppercut and an overhand) with freak athleticism is enough to kill everybody else in the weightclass aside the very best. Tell me a weighclass below 205 where you can secure even a top 10 rank with just that.

 

[LiquidNuke]

How about a TLDR version since you aren't any kind of commodity or quality poster around here and no one really gives a shit enough to read several of your long winded paragraphs.

 

[NorthernLights]

How about a TLDR version since you aren't any kind of commodity or quality poster around here and no one really gives a shit enough to read several of your long winded paragraphs.

You could also just choose to ignore the thread/the poster and move on with your life. No need to be an asshole about it.

 

[nebulousned]

True

But, nebulousned, may I add - it's heavyweight. The weightclass is profoundly uncompetitive. I mean, it's still UFC and there are the best HW that are out there, but the level is jokingly low. We got Black Beast swanging and banging his way to a titlefight. In every other weightclass he would be a prelim fighter if he even manage to stay at the roster for more than a few fights. It's a weird weightclass and rules don't fit so well as in other more normal weightclasses. 265 and 205 are freak divisions IMO. Weird shit happens there. One of the reasons is there are really not stacked and you can get away with shit that will fly nowhere else below 205.

Being a one note counter-puncher (uppercut and an overhand) with freak athleticism is enough to kill everybody else in the weightclass aside the very best. Tell me a weighclass below 205 where you can secure even a top 10 rank with just that.

I agree that fighters that are one dimensional are typically inferior to fighters who can do it all.

But it's hard to define who is the worker vs the finisher. JDS has a rich history of finishing people, yet you highlighted him as the worker in your original post.

Holloway vs Aldo, who's the finisher there?

Amanda Nunes is the best WMMA fighter around imo, she has more finishes than anyone.

 

[Oblivian]

 

[ApplesVild]

Actually does add up, there are always going to be out lyers but over all it make sense. Guessing you where betting at some decently high stakes?

 

[ApplesVild]

Workers are usually grappling base, finishers usually have a striking base.

What if a worker takes on a worker? Or a finisher vs a finisher.

Francis for example vs Black Beast (I know heavy weight the rules change) but they are both finishers so how do you then decide, or do you only play bets on fights where there is a clear finisher vs worker maych up?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Guessing you where betting at some decently high stakes?

Not exactly. It was not a pennies either, but more because the two losses was so bad on my ego that made me make a hard stop. And I really thought a got the hang of this mma betting thing. Guess not.

Francis for example vs Black Beast (I know heavy weight the rules change) but they are both finishers so how do you then decide, or do you only play bets on fights where there is a clear finisher vs worker maych up?

This fight I didn't wanted to go near it. Yeah, Lewis' odds were so temting, tho. But I got burnt a bunch of times on heavyweight fights, so I passed. Still I got a sneaking suspicion Lewis is gonna take it. But it was 90% because of Heavy Hands podcast with Conor and Zane. They pretty much nailed it and I really thought this is how this fight gonna go. Lewis spamming ridiculous kicks and charge once in a while and Ngannou just watching. It's a mirror match more or less. Again - Heavy Hands term. (at least this is where I first heard it). You usually pick the guy with the more experience in these. Or if the experience is similar the more athletic fella. Lewis was far deeper into his UFC career when they faced. So he knew what he had to do here. But again, all the credit is to the HH podcast. I just repeat what they said.

Generally I try to stay on course and bet on proven worker type fighters on a cheap price. But of course here and there you are gonna inevitebly lose some of these and then you begin to question this tactic and get off the beaten path. This is the issue for me - I have to remind myself that betting on the boring fighters (whos experienced or have a big edge etc. ) is just proven with the time and in the long run especially.

What if a worker takes on a worker? Or a finisher vs a finisher.

You bet on the OG. Especially if he is the underdog.

I agree that fighters that are one dimensional are typically inferior to fighters who can do it all.

But it's hard to define who is the worker vs the finisher. JDS has a rich history of finishing people, yet you highlighted him as the worker in your original post.

Holloway vs Aldo, who's the finisher there?

Amanda Nunes is the best WMMA fighter around imo, she has more finishes than anyone.

I agree. It's a complex issue. That is why is so hard to make a buck betting. A lot of moving parts.

 

[ApplesVild]

Adeysana VS Silver was a finisher vs a finisher, one is an OG but the other has the athletic edge. Just a pass fight, or does athleticism out weight experience?

 

[Kyle Stephens]

To me it was a fairly big athletic edge combined with modern MMA that beat Silva in this case. Silva proved that even at his age he can be competitive with much younger guys, but his old school approach is not cutting it in modern MMA. He just don't have enough offensive tools (variety, trickery, subtlety) and relies on guys being almost clueless in the striking department and charging him blindly. Not to mention that one of his safety blankets - the thai plum is just non existent since forever. He is not nearly as strong as before and people now know what to do in this clinch.

If you are just calm and collected, you got almost nothing to worry about v Silva nowadays. We saw how Silva, in much better shape, faired v the Count. So if even this here was in a big part case of youth v age, he still lost a technical fight to Bisping.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

How about a TLDR version since you aren't any kind of commodity or quality poster around here and no one really gives a shit enough to read several of your long winded paragraphs.

Stfu , Kyle does great breakdowns you n00b

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

How about a TLDR version since you aren't any kind of commodity or quality poster around here and no one really gives a shit enough to read several of your long winded paragraphs.

I thought it was a good post.

 

[TrueAscension]

Its a fine post and the analysis is whatever but saying that a worker vs a knockout artist is a winning combo is just absurd. It depends on each and every fight.

 

[ApplesVild]

I think a well rounded guy beats a guy who is very good a one thing, everything else being essentially equal.

 

[Herzizou]

Stfu , Kyle does great breakdowns you n00b

Nah, his posts sucks as much as his "predictions". Guy is almost never right about anything and poses as this great MMA punter...lol. His posts are boring as fuck.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I think a well rounded guy beats a guy who is very good a one thing, everything else being essentially equal.

ApplesVild, absolutely agree with you!
Will add something myself. If the well rounded guy has not at least somewhat layered and complex way to avoid the one area the very good at one thing guy is, the well rounded guy WILL eventually get caught. Just give enough opportunities to the one trick pony and the trick will do the job sooner or later.

I don't know if this was the case in Justin's win over Edson, but on a surface level it seemed to me. Barbosa just backed himself to the fence over and over again, gave ground and thus gave the best chance for Gaethje's game to work. Saying that Gaethje looked as he got the better of Barbosa even in the open area, his kicks connected with higher percentage, Barbosa didn't avoid or checked alomost any of Gaethje's kicks and he himself defended Barb's kicks a lot better than more people anticipated.

 

[ApplesVild]

Barboza is good at one thing, striking at range. Justin is good at several things, even if his game seems simple, he has good boxing, good leg kicks, applys pressure in a way few others can, he was basically tailor made to beat Barboza who is probably his easiest match up at light weight. Really regret not having a decent straight bet on him looking back, I had him finishing most of my parlays which died as the night went on but I should have had at least one mainline or by finish bet on him, especially as an underdog.

 

[sonofjay817]

I haven't been long in this game, but in my time doing it, I've done EXTREMELY well (if you exclude one horrifically bad, spur of the moment decision to chase my losses and bet a very foolish amount on Till against Masvidal that set me back in a major way). Generally, what I do is spend Thursday, Friday, and Saturday listening to various people's predictions on YouTube and weighing all of that against my own instincts. By fight day, it seems as if my subconscious presses all of that together, shakes it up, and serves it back to me in a deep gut feeling one way or the other. I like informed gut feelings because I'm not smart enough to base it all on conscious analysis, and I really think few people are. I will say this, my gut really let me down on the Till/Masvidal fight. Usually, I have some internal wranglings and mixed feelings and I go back and forth a bit, but every fiber of my being had Till winning that fight which is why I went so hard on it. Lesson learned.