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I hit the pause on betting after that really bad Vick bet
(still, it could be a total loss, I was afraid he can lost a bullshit split so hedged some units on Felder by dec, though not enough) and before that Albini fucked me over too. I just had no other option but to stop and recollect myself. Where did I went wrong... how, why? Many questions, many...
I think there is a prevailing number of proofs that having just one deadly weapon is not enough in the modern MMA, especially not at the high level (and/or in a competitive weightclasses). There is the odd Damian Maia here and there, but if you don't have at least two-three reliable tools in your toolbox, you're gonna lose almost all of your big fights. It's uderstandable for a fightfan to drool over the big puncher, or the submission ace, but for a person who actually puts money on this shit, this is downright stupid.
Everybody knows that workman type fighters are the bettor's best friend. One reason is that a lot of the times they are underrated (thus you can take them for cheap), because fans either don't know them, or because the opponent is so fucking hyped. There is of course exceptions, but you generally want to bet on the guy or gal, who will do more and, more importantly is willing to do the dirty non glamorous type of things like grinding, pitter-patter punching to a safe decision and shit like this.
I fell for the big finisher a number of times. And to counter that, I began to bet on the "smart" fighter. Turns out, smart fighter is no better than the all out balls to the wall crazy dude. Smart fighters are too gunshy. They tend to do less work and of course it's more likely to lose on the judges if the fight goes the distance. Either cause they lack the offensive footwork and coordination (technique), or because they are too much in their head. And I really mean when I put smart in quotes. Jon Jones is smart, Max Holloway is smart - shit that Tyron Woodley does is just praying for that one weapon to destroy the opponent, meanwhile he is slowly losing a decision. And he was damn lucky that Usman is not the finisher Marquardt was.
I want to add some recent fights as an example of "worker" fighters beating "finishers".
Kamaru over Tyron
Blagoy over Ben (I know it's debateble, but the judges' decision is king when it comes to betting)
JDS over Lewis
Omari over Tim
Rocco Martin over Sergio
Jorge over Darren
Leon over Gunnar
Marshman over Philips
Diakiese over Duffy
So after that last betting loss I decided to concentrate on my dayjob, still watch tape on UFC fights, but not as fanatically.
Finally I want to use this thread to congratulate @Conor_Is_Overrated for his incredible winstreak at the L-challenge! https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/the-l-challenge-edition-ii.3891805/page-10
(still, it could be a total loss, I was afraid he can lost a bullshit split so hedged some units on Felder by dec, though not enough) and before that Albini fucked me over too. I just had no other option but to stop and recollect myself. Where did I went wrong... how, why? Many questions, many...
I think there is a prevailing number of proofs that having just one deadly weapon is not enough in the modern MMA, especially not at the high level (and/or in a competitive weightclasses). There is the odd Damian Maia here and there, but if you don't have at least two-three reliable tools in your toolbox, you're gonna lose almost all of your big fights. It's uderstandable for a fightfan to drool over the big puncher, or the submission ace, but for a person who actually puts money on this shit, this is downright stupid.
Everybody knows that workman type fighters are the bettor's best friend. One reason is that a lot of the times they are underrated (thus you can take them for cheap), because fans either don't know them, or because the opponent is so fucking hyped. There is of course exceptions, but you generally want to bet on the guy or gal, who will do more and, more importantly is willing to do the dirty non glamorous type of things like grinding, pitter-patter punching to a safe decision and shit like this.
I fell for the big finisher a number of times. And to counter that, I began to bet on the "smart" fighter. Turns out, smart fighter is no better than the all out balls to the wall crazy dude. Smart fighters are too gunshy. They tend to do less work and of course it's more likely to lose on the judges if the fight goes the distance. Either cause they lack the offensive footwork and coordination (technique), or because they are too much in their head. And I really mean when I put smart in quotes. Jon Jones is smart, Max Holloway is smart - shit that Tyron Woodley does is just praying for that one weapon to destroy the opponent, meanwhile he is slowly losing a decision. And he was damn lucky that Usman is not the finisher Marquardt was.
I want to add some recent fights as an example of "worker" fighters beating "finishers".
Kamaru over Tyron
Blagoy over Ben (I know it's debateble, but the judges' decision is king when it comes to betting)
JDS over Lewis
Omari over Tim
Rocco Martin over Sergio
Jorge over Darren
Leon over Gunnar
Marshman over Philips
Diakiese over Duffy
So after that last betting loss I decided to concentrate on my dayjob, still watch tape on UFC fights, but not as fanatically.
Finally I want to use this thread to congratulate @Conor_Is_Overrated for his incredible winstreak at the L-challenge! https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/the-l-challenge-edition-ii.3891805/page-10