I agree with Paddy's favorite status, though the line is a bit wide IMO given Pimblett's lower level of competition, his proclivity for getting rocked in pretty much every fight, and the fact that he's coming off a fairly notable injury lay-off. Ultimately what it boils down to is the fact that Tony's only real chance is to keep it standing and out-strike/hurt the younger, more durable, and arguably more consistent fighter in Paddy... which, to be fair, he is potentially quite capable of doing.
Well, the last part anyway. It's the "keep it standing" bit that poses the issue. Tony has not shown much to get excited about in the realm of defensive grappling in the last few years. Asking him to keep even a mediocre wrestler like Paddy off him for 15 minutes is a tall task considering Pimblett's tenacity and durability. If/when they go to the ground, it'll probably be a wrap. Tony will probably throw elbows from his back as he always does, maybe roll for a leg or try to pull a D'arce... but despite Paddy's deficiencies, he is
very crafty on the mat. Given the chance, I think Paddy is going to win every scramble, slice through Tony's porous guard, get into a dominant position, and ultimately submit him.
Honestly, I would say that at this juncture the disparity between each guy's respective grappling games is bigger than the disparity in their stand-up. Tony has continued to present flashes of danger on the feet to this day and I'd favor him in a pure striking match... but youth, durability, and confidence count for so much in this game and Pimblett can crack on occasion.
Is the current ghost of Tony better than Jared Gordon? Man, I would love to think so, but I'm not sure. I'd still favor Paddy here because I think he's just a bit better than Tony everywhere at this point.
Jared Gordon is a perennial gatekeeper to the Top 15 and I mean that in a good way. Tends to hang around in the Top 25ish range. He has a style that gives a lot of guys fits and his worst losses are Paddy (which many consider very questionable) and Joaquim Silva (who just gave Arman Tsarukyan hell as a massive underdog). The only other people to beat Gordon are all dudes that are or were ranked contenders at 155: Dawson, CDF, and Oliveira. Jared was actually out-striking Bobby Green and frustrating him with counters before the head clash. As someone who picked Bobby to beat him, part of me was happy for the NC because I legitimately thought Jared was going to win that fight based on early indications lmao
Definitely fair to say Gordon is a more consistent fighter than today's Ferguson, but probably considerably less dangerous.