News Tony Ferguson opens as betting underdog against Paddy Pimblett

[tasticles]

Tonys chin, reflexes, and everything else are long gone at this point. Paddy will never be as good as prime Tony, but hes young and good enough to destroy this current shadow of Tony. Would like to see Tony derail the train, but I think its an easy win for Paddy.

I think you're right, but if we're wrong, they should cut paddy. Zombie Ferguson should be a simple task.

 

[michi972]

I don't get Paddy hate. Maybe he's not as good, but anyone who gets to that level, especially in division like lightweight is dam good. His fights are always exciting

 

[Safton]

I agree with Paddy's favorite status, though the line is a bit wide IMO given Pimblett's lower level of competition, his proclivity for getting rocked in pretty much every fight, and the fact that he's coming off a fairly notable injury lay-off. Ultimately what it boils down to is the fact that Tony's only real chance is to keep it standing and out-strike/hurt the younger, more durable, and arguably more consistent fighter in Paddy... which, to be fair, he is potentially quite capable of doing.

Well, the last part anyway. It's the "keep it standing" bit that poses the issue. Tony has not shown much to get excited about in the realm of defensive grappling in the last few years. Asking him to keep even a mediocre wrestler like Paddy off him for 15 minutes is a tall task considering Pimblett's tenacity and durability. If/when they go to the ground, it'll probably be a wrap. Tony will probably throw elbows from his back as he always does, maybe roll for a leg or try to pull a D'arce... but despite Paddy's deficiencies, he is very crafty on the mat. Given the chance, I think Paddy is going to win every scramble, slice through Tony's porous guard, get into a dominant position, and ultimately submit him.

Honestly, I would say that at this juncture the disparity between each guy's respective grappling games is bigger than the disparity in their stand-up. Tony has continued to present flashes of danger on the feet to this day and I'd favor him in a pure striking match... but youth, durability, and confidence count for so much in this game and Pimblett can crack on occasion.

Is the current ghost of Tony better than Jared Gordon? Man, I would love to think so, but I'm not sure. I'd still favor Paddy here because I think he's just a bit better than Tony everywhere at this point.

Jared Gordon is a perennial gatekeeper to the Top 15 and I mean that in a good way. Tends to hang around in the Top 25ish range. He has a style that gives a lot of guys fits and his worst losses are Paddy (which many consider very questionable) and Joaquim Silva (who just gave Arman Tsarukyan hell as a massive underdog). The only other people to beat Gordon are all dudes that are or were ranked contenders at 155: Dawson, CDF, and Oliveira. Jared was actually out-striking Bobby Green and frustrating him with counters before the head clash. As someone who picked Bobby to beat him, part of me was happy for the NC because I legitimately thought Jared was going to win that fight based on early indications lmao

Definitely fair to say Gordon is a more consistent fighter than today's Ferguson, but probably considerably less dangerous.

 

[newms84]

I have been saying that Tony is not that good for 7 years. He just has a long winning streak. I will be saying the same thing about Paddy if he wins.

So you said something silly seven years ago and now are boasting that it finally came true? It could be argued that Tony was overrated but to say he was never that good is just not accurate

 

[old school 2]

So you said something silly seven years ago and now are boasting that it finally came true? It could be argued that Tony was overrated but to say he was never that good is just not accurate

I was extremely accurate as I said Tony would not beat Khabib ever. that was 7 years ago. I said he would not beat MJ , 6 years ago I said he was not going to beat Gaejthe or Poirier or Conor. There was many here that said he was the people’s champ. I said he was never that good. He was a top 5 but never ever the man ! I stand by that.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Near 3-1...I'd bet that on tony. I bet causals get it to 4-1.

 

[newms84]

I was extremely accurate as I said Tony would not beat Khabib ever. that was 7 years ago. I said he would not beat MJ , 6 years ago I said he was not going to beat Gaejthe or Poirier or Conor. There was many here that said he was the people’s champ. I said he was never that good. He was a top 5 but never ever the man ! I stand by that.

Odd way of defining not that good

 

[Goober stoober]

I don’t know where tony is skill wise anymore.

It was just a precipitous decline that paddy and all his flaws might end up waxing him.

Yet, paddy looked so bad in his last fight versus a virtual nobody and has never fought the competition Tony’s faced of late.

I really don’t know what to expect which is the best part of this matchup.

 

[gentel]

Voted no just because the odds are too lopsided. Tony is as washed as it gets but Paddy is a terrible fighter who lost to undersized journeyman Flash Gordon

Paddy is more likely to win but not -340, more like -200

 

[old school 2]

Odd way of defining not that good

Many said he was the goat, maybe even you… but he is not that good and never beat anyone better than RDA who lost to 7 other LW’s.

 

[BEATDOWNS]

why haven't either of these guys piped up yet yet since the announcement?

 

[newms84]

Many said he was the goat, maybe even you… but he is not that good and never beat anyone better than RDA who lost to 7 other LW’s.

Never said he was the goat, in fact in my first post I said you could say he's overrated but that's a lot different than not that good. If prime Tony is not that good of a lightweight, how many good lightweights have there ever been? You already said he was top 5 in your earlier reply, what do you have to be ranked to be considered good? Top 3 only? Im not arguing Tony was ever the goat or could've ever beat Khabib but to say he was never that good is just incorrect

 

[kalabula]

Have to bet Tony at those odds

If Paddy struggles to get him down or can't control him..... Tony is live

I’ve said Tony is a live dog for the past several fights. I was wrong.

 

[old school 2]

Never said he was the goat, in fact in my first post I said you could say he's overrated but that's a lot different than not that good. If prime Tony is not that good of a lightweight, how many good lightweights have there ever been? You already said he was top 5 in your earlier reply, what do you have to be ranked to be considered good? Top 3 only? Im not arguing Tony was ever the goat or could've ever beat Khabib but to say he was never that good is just incorrect

you said he was overrated and I said he is not that good. It’s semantics .

 

[William Munny]

I agree with the odds. he's looked pretty bad in his last several fights. I hope he goes out on a win. I don't see it here though

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Paddy is a much better grappler and he has a good chin. He's just going to take Tony down and sub him. Tony is beyond washed and he was overrated anyway.

 

[thenatural43]

Very surprised to see no one giving Tony a chance. He's fought nothing but absolute killers. Wasn't looking bad against chandler before the KO.

There's levels to this game and paddy is not very good at all. Tony is not only going to win this fight, he is going to maul Paddy. Will definitely put my money where my mouth is.

Tony is awkward and isn't the most technical guy on the feet but he is levels above paddy standing. Paddy's stiking is awful paddy also isn't skilled enough to take and hold Tony down. Will be easy money. Can't wait to bump this thread.

 

[TheNinja]

Putting money on Tony.

 

[Poatan]

No. Pimblett is awful. Tony knocks him out

 

[Goutfather]

i was never too crazy about tony or his win streak, at least up until rda. not that it wasn’t impressive, it’s just the way he fought, he looked very beatable—good, but not great. that whole era of lws was the same: lots of good fighters, but no great fighters (with the exception of perhaps khabib, who fought so infrequently people often forgot about him). tony, for a brief time, was arguably the second best in that class.

but any way you slice it, he’s faced way tougher competition than paddy. i mean honestly, which one of tony’s recent opponents would paddy beat? none of them. so while tony may have lost a step relative to his former peers in the top 10, and the gatekeepers, it remains to be seen how far he’s actually fallen.