TUF 25 Finale - Gaethje vs Johnson - Vegas

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Count me among the group that thinks MJ sparks Justin at some point. You can praise his aggression, but that aggression turns into full on recklessness way to often. That stay in the pocket and throw bombs mentality, with no care for defense, mixed with MJ's fast, heavy hands isn't a good combo.
 
Props up.

Feel like there may be some value in Herman/CB ends ITD at -160
 
Betsafe dropped odds on Cannoniers replacement fight.
Cannonier -286
Roehrick +220
 
Tecia dec opened -136 for anyone on her, large value compared to her ML imo. I hit that, Tavares dec and Klose dec.
 
Tony J said:
Anyone betting MJ vs Gaethje has big brass ones. That's truly a gunfight on the feet.

So many factors to consider - Gaethje's gastank, his fight iq, MJ's gastank, et al. I lean MJ myself, but man, I have rule picking against undefeated fighters and you have to pay the juice on MJ.
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I'm on MJ for 5 units.
 
Caicara said:
Let me get get this straight: I bet MJ as a slight underdog (+100) and, for me, this is a great bet.

I do think that he should be the favorite, but as we've seen some recent interviews and analyzing performances, Gaethje could very well use his wrestling and grind MJ to a late TKO victory or even a Dec one.

I'm hedging
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Are you seriously hedging where you have even odds? Stick to your bet. Don't let others change your mind.
 
thesharktank said:
Isnt that the very point of hedging? Buying out of a good odd?
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And no, you bet on fighters you think are going to win. Why place a bet on someone you think is going to lose or are not somewhat confident in?

Plus if you got him as a dog why not roll with it?
 
TimCoreCombat said:
And no, you bet on fighters you think are going to win. Why place a bet on someone you think is going to lose or are not somewhat confident in?

Plus if you got him as a dog why not roll with it?
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Free money is the best money.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Sherdog rule of thumb is freeroll for $8 profit
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You bet $300 Thiago Santos +155. Odds change to Gerald +125
You bet $300 on Gerald +125.
You profit more than $8.

I take free money when it's there. I did the same with Joshua stansbury. Though I bet $0 to win $35 because it was such a crapshoot I didn't feel like risking anything.

I'm poor and people here bet 5 figures so guaranteed profit is is smart money.

Edit:

Obviously if I have a strong lean one way I wont even hedge.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Not impressed with Klose at all. Diakese still has a lot to show to live up to the hype, not forgetting that stinker of a performance vs Perez, but Klose seems like a very appropriate, very tiny step up in competition. ATT Diakese should have his way with him imo
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I'm with you on that. I know a lot of people like Klose here against Diakese, but I just don't feel he's got the control to keep on Diakese. A style like Covington's would give Diakese trouble, but I just don't see Klose as a guy who can control for that long and hit several takedowns.
 
nothng wrong with freerollng a bet especially when you think that there is a better than 50/50 chance that you will get better odds, much better odds, early in the fight which could be the case with mj

johnson could easily get to +250 or 300 after the first round with gaethjes go-for-broke, do-or-die fighitng style
 
Just a few thoughts from watching fights.....

Torres vs Lima - The over should definitely hit here as should Torres DEC. Although Lima possesses the physical attributes to cause problems for Torres she doesn't have the ability to utilise them. Lima's TD accuracy is poor and Torres TDD is decent, she'll struggle to try clinch up with Torres due to Torres' far superior footwork and ability to kick from the outside, it should in theory just be 15 minutes of Lima trying to close the distance and getting peppered with punches and kicks and eventually losing a decision.

Maynard vs Ishihara - Maynard is shot, not as bad as we've seen some other fighters but he is a shell of 2011 Maynard; that goes without saying. His output and tenacity have declined hugely, as has his chin and ability to implement his wrestling. That said I wouldn't be shocked to see him land a takedown or two early on but I can't see him being able to hold Ishihara down for 3 rounds. On the feet there is no match here, Ishihara is wild and awkward in style (southpaw too) but produces a very active output as well as packing serious power in both hands. Ishihara is the pick with a TKO very likely within 2 rounds.

Herman vs Dollaway - I think the line should be closer here. This could and likely will end up being a stand up contest; both guys pack good power and both guys can be knocked out. Dollaway has the better wrestling and could land them but Herman is a threat on the mat too and I'm sure Dollaway is very aware of that. I can't see Herman landing takedowns so like I said, I can see this being a boxing match full of haymakers. I wouldn't touch Dollaway at these odds so the play for me is Fight Does Not Go The Distance and possibly some on Herman too.
 
Just keep maxing Torres dec and Hill dec

Ishi itd too but stopped that now to wait for KO
 
Tavares vs Theodorou - This could be incredibly boring and probably will, neither guy is a finisher and style-wise it could be ugly. The over is probably very safe but I think Tavares is the play here. His style is far from exciting but he has good TDD, much better than Theodorou's offensive wrestling game. Tavares is more polished on the feet too with a decent kicking game. The year layoff worries me slightly but I'll probably still play him.

Cannonier vs Roehrick - Roehrick has been training at Elevation for some time now with Duane Ludwig etc, been sparring with Curtis Blaydes. He takes this on very short notice but with his wrestling background, overall size and fact he used to be a legit heavyweight before training in Denver and dropping 30+ lbs after his 4th fight makes me believe he has the tools to win here. From what I've seen from his old fights he has some heavy leg kicks and a decent enough jab but with Cannonier's very poor TDD it should be fairly obvious what his game plan is. Cannonier is rightly favourite but stylistically Roehrick is as tough a short notice opponent as any.
 
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