UFC 204 - Bisping vs Hendo II - England

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I can't even believe Roberts is now at -130 vs Perry. I think this line is pretty off. Roberts is so much more technically sound. He has fought a way higher level of competition compared to Perry, and I almost couldn't believe what I was seeing when I watched the fight that got Perry called up to the ufc. Shin guards in a pro fight AND 3 minute rounds!? If this fight makes it out of the first I don't see how Perry could have any chance of winning. He loads up and and has a very limited set of skills. Even if he does find a way to land on Roberts, he will risk the possibility of following him onto the ground and getting subbed if it is not a one punch K.O.
Roberts should be able to K.O. him with a left kick or right hook at some point in the fight.
3 units on Roberts

EDIT: The shin guard fight was an amateur fight. My mistake
 
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Just scouted Roberts/Perry. I expected to find value in Roberts after I rewatched the Lim fight and saw that the only thing Perry really had was the overhand when Lim threw that disgusting uppercut that nobody who knows how to throw uppercuts would ever even think of throwing. But then I got to Roberts and his striking is awful. He has absolutely no concept of manipulating his rhythm or timing to throw off counterpunches, he just launches face-first into every terrible shot he throws. He nearly knocked himself out on Dom Steele's fist throwing a front kick from the wrong range at a poor angle, then did it again a couple minutes later. Maybe Perry gasses and Roberts is able to get the better of him later, but I think there's a good chance Perry sparks him out in the first. I don't see much value in this fight.
 
Nobody in the thread seems to be giving Hendo a chance, which means he's almost certainly going to win by KO ;)

In all seriousness there's BIG pressure on Bisping here, he's desperate to put on a good performance in front of his hometown fans. As good as his striking is he isn't the hardest guy to hit, that H-Bomb's only got to land once and it's beddy-byes.

Still expect Bisping to get it done but Dan Henderson by KO/TKO in Round 1 @ 15/2 is definitely worth a little stab imo.
 
I think there's value on Leo Santos. Both him and Martins are solid counterpunchers, but he throws much higher volume and has a decent jab to draw the punches he wants to counter and score when his opponent isn't giving him openings., as well as some solid leg kicks and front kicks that he stays active with. Martins is super low volume and often gives away rounds because he isn't throwing enough. They both have solid reactive takedowns, but the ground should be a wash.
 
Johnbmma1 said:
I can't even believe Roberts is now at -130 vs Perry. I think this line is pretty off. Roberts is so much more technically sound. He has fought a way higher level of competition compared to Perry, and I almost couldn't believe what I was seeing when I watched the fight that got Perry called up to the ufc. Shin guards in a pro fight AND 3 minute rounds!? If this fight makes it out of the first I don't see how Perry could have any chance of winning. He loads up and and has a very limited set of skills. Even if he does find a way to land on Roberts, he will risk the possibility of following him onto the ground and getting subbed if it is not a one punch K.O.
Roberts should be able to K.O. him with a left kick or right hook at some point in the fight.
3 units on Roberts

EDIT: The shin guard fight was an amateur fight. My mistake
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i'm with you. biggest bet on the card.

roberts is also longer, hometown, better ground.
 
The MM Analyst said:
Just scouted Roberts/Perry. I expected to find value in Roberts after I rewatched the Lim fight and saw that the only thing Perry really had was the overhand when Lim threw that disgusting uppercut that nobody who knows how to throw uppercuts would ever even think of throwing. But then I got to Roberts and his striking is awful. He has absolutely no concept of manipulating his rhythm or timing to throw off counterpunches, he just launches face-first into every terrible shot he throws. He nearly knocked himself out on Dom Steele's fist throwing a front kick from the wrong range at a poor angle, then did it again a couple minutes later. Maybe Perry gasses and Roberts is able to get the better of him later, but I think there's a good chance Perry sparks him out in the first. I don't see much value in this fight.
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I'm with u. Im actually incredibly surprised people are betting Roberts. He literally seems like the perfect fight for Perry. Roberts striking is just not good.
 
The MM Analyst said:
Just scouted Roberts/Perry. I expected to find value in Roberts after I rewatched the Lim fight and saw that the only thing Perry really had was the overhand when Lim threw that disgusting uppercut that nobody who knows how to throw uppercuts would ever even think of throwing. But then I got to Roberts and his striking is awful. He has absolutely no concept of manipulating his rhythm or timing to throw off counterpunches, he just launches face-first into every terrible shot he throws. He nearly knocked himself out on Dom Steele's fist throwing a front kick from the wrong range at a poor angle, then did it again a couple minutes later. Maybe Perry gasses and Roberts is able to get the better of him later, but I think there's a good chance Perry sparks him out in the first. I don't see much value in this fight.
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is that the only fight you've seen of roberts..?
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Nobody in the thread seems to be giving Hendo a chance, which means he's almost certainly going to win by KO ;)

In all seriousness there's BIG pressure on Bisping here, he's desperate to put on a good performance in front of his hometown fans. As good as his striking is he isn't the hardest guy to hit, that H-Bomb's only got to land once and it's beddy-byes.

Still expect Bisping to get it done but Dan Henderson by KO/TKO in Round 1 @ 15/2 is definitely worth a little stab imo.
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There was more pressure on Bisping in the Rockhold fight. 2 weeks notice, against probably the best middleweight and the only title shot he was ever going to get.
 
The MM Analyst said:
I watched the Coy fight too and got the same impressions, he was getting tagged on the counter consistently. Couldn't find his recent CWFC fights.
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k. we just disagree, then.

if perry was a big dog, i'd say i understood better, but near evens i think this is a clear play.. but we'll see how it plays out
 
Brick Top said:
There was more pressure on Bisping in the Rockhold fight. 2 weeks notice, against probably the best middleweight and the only title shot he was ever going to get.
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Different kind of pressure. He was coming in as a massive underdog against Rockhold, nobody gave him a prayer. And of course Luke took him lightly.

He's got everything to lose here. Making a balls of it in a title fight against a pensioner in front of his own fans would surely be the most embarrassing moment of his career, that's got to be playing on his mind.

I'm not writing Hendo off just yet.
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Different kind of pressure. He was coming in as a massive underdog against Rockhold, nobody gave him a prayer. And of course Luke took him lightly.

He's got everything to lose here. Making a balls of it in a title fight against a pensioner in front of his own fans would surely be the most embarrassing moment of his career, that's got to be playing on his mind.

I'm not writing Hendo off just yet.
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Bisping is undefeated in England 18-0 I think). Hometown is not a disadvantage here and it's his easiest match-up in years
 
Brick Top said:
Bisping is undefeated in England 18-0 I think). Hometown is not a disadvantage here and it's his easiest match-up in years
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Easiest match-up? Granted Hendo's 46 now but how did it go last time?
 
how the heck is NOT tumenov ITD only -138? edwards has never been finished.
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm with you. biggest bet on the card.

roberts is also longer, hometown, better ground.
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I'm on board, and I actually played Perry for 1u against Lim. The only reason I did that was because Lim is a pure sprawl and brawler, which plays right into Perry's style, but Roberts has shown solid subs and grinding ability.
 
EzFlyer said:
making me wish i bet more on this one.

i'm sitting at 0.65u goes 3 rounds at basically +400ish, 0.5u O1.5 +135. basically i played both guys separately at +1050 dec and +750 dec.. don't have any preference who takes it, either, really.

so i lose all plays if it's U1.5 as opposed to your U1.0, but you're risking a bunch more to win a bunch more hehe
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Yeah, these lines are baffling to me. Neither are aggressive strikers. OSP is always looking for counters, but I doubt Manuawa will want to rush in in his hometown and get clipped. Manuawa has shown good TDD and some degree of competence on the ground, and he's not a sub threat. All that, and he seems to love wall and stalling.
 
Brick Top said:
A lot changes in 7 years. Bisping has improved and Hendo is off the TRT and completely shot now.
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Yeah, if you watch the first fight, it's a totally different Bisping more than it's a totally different Hendo (even with the age and TRT). I have tons of confidence in this Bisping to get it done in his hometown.
 
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