UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[EzFlyer]

I just rewatched Gastelum vs Woodley and man, Kelvin took some bombs in that fight. If Cowboy finishes him that would be ultra impressive.

that's how i feel, too

i genuinely think gastelum might be tougher than both story and cote. i'm serious. go ahead and flame... i think a big part of that is age / battleweariness -- story's had tons of injuries, he's been at this level longer, etc.. and part of him never being ko'd previously was cause he fought a smart style that prevented guys from teeing off

i'll be even more impressed by cowboy if he tko's gastelum than i was for either the cote or story ones

(please note that i'm not saying it can't happen. i know it can. i just don't think it will.)

 

[Agent Mulder]

I'm gonna be on so many overs on this card...

Edgar/Stephens (O2.5)
Miller/Alves (O2.5)
Carmouche/Chookagian (O2.5)
Good/Muhammad (O2.5)
Tate/Pennington (O2.5)
Boetsch/Natal (O1.5)
Romero/Weidman (O1.5)

 

[EzFlyer]

I'm gonna be on so many overs on this card...

Edgar/Stephens (O2.5)
Miller/Alves (O2.5)
Carmouche/Chookagian (O2.5)
Good/Muhammad (O2.5)
Tate/Pennington (O2.5)
Boetsch/Natal (O1.5)
Romero/Weidman (O1.5)

think i agree w/all of them

 

[t6p]

IDK man... same thing was said about Cote and Story and crazy fucker Cerrone finished both guys. Kelvin is though but when Cowboy smells blood he is one of the best finishers in the UFC.


Johnson-Khabib: Damn I love Khabib and dislike MJ but I have to go with the dog here. Khabib stand up is rudimentary and Johnson has really good hands. I think there is a really good possibility of Khabib literally running into something. He can be reckless some times.
I will be rooting for Nurmagomedov but Johnson is a live dog here.

My initial reaction to this fight was the same as yours but after going back and watching tape I'm torn. I think that sometime in the near future Khabib is going to get himself knocked out. He has a tendency to come forward throwing wild, looping punches. Eventually someone is going to catch him coming in and MJ might just be the guy to do it. He certainly has the power and skill to do so.

With all of that said, MJ was taken down and completely dominated on the ground by both Madadi and Jury. I feel that if Khabib is able to get him down, he's going to be in a world of trouble. On the flipside, since the Jury/Madadi fights MJ's opponents are 0 of 16 on takedown attempts. While none of them have been grapplers on Khabib's level, I think this at least shows that MJ recognized the weakness in his TDD and has worked on improving it.

I'd like to see props before I decide how I'm going to the play this fight.

 

[mkess101]

I just rewatched Gastelum vs Woodley and man, Kelvin took some bombs in that fight. If Cowboy finishes him that would be ultra impressive.

I will need to rewatch but yeah if Woodley landed clean and Kelvin ate them that is super impressive. Woodley does tire though so strikes from him in rd 3 aren't the same as Cowboy rd 3. Plus Cowboy can land kicks and knees too.

Even as a Cowboy fan I'm kinda shocked at the power he's shown at 170. I think even if we grant Kelvin a great chin we wouldn't say it's better than Story or Cote though based on history.

In addition, as good a grappler as Kelvin is, watch the Magny fight again. Cerrone is absolutely capable of subbing Kelvin here too. Cowboy's ground game is terrific.

I just think too many ways Cowboy can potentially finish to make a Kelvin NSC bet unless I'm getting maybe +250ish.

 

[t6p]

I will need to rewatch but yeah if Woodley landed clean and Kelvin ate them that is super impressive. Woodley does tire though so strikes from him in rd 3 aren't the same as Cowboy rd 3. Plus Cowboy can land kicks and knees too.

Even as a Cowboy fan I'm kinda shocked at the power he's shown at 170. I think even if we grant Kelvin a great chin we wouldn't say it's better than Story or Cote though based on history.

In addition, as good a grappler as Kelvin is, watch the Magny fight again. Cerrone is absolutely capable of subbing Kelvin here too. Cowboy's ground game is terrific.

I just think too many ways Cowboy can potentially finish to make a Kelvin NSC bet unless I'm getting maybe +250ish.

To be clear, I wasn't advocating a play on Gastelum NSC and I do agree that a Cowboy sub is very much possible. I was just stating that after seeing the shots he took from Woodley in round 2 of that fight, how impressed I'd be if Cowboy is able to finish him with strikes. Right now, I'm looking at playing Cowboy's ML. He's looked too good at 170 and I think he has a number of paths to victory here.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I just rewatched Gastelum vs Woodley and man, Kelvin took some bombs in that fight. If Cowboy finishes him that would be ultra impressive.

Woodley and Cowboy styles and finish abilities are just too different.

Cerrone was tagging Cote all night long before that perfect left hook. Same with Story and even more if you count the sick combination he put at the end of the fight. He did not flattened any of those guys. As Robbie Lawler would say: "that was the accumulation of a beatdown".

Woodley is more the kind of guy that is looking to time and land that 1 big right hand.

 

[t6p]

Woodley and Cowboy styles and finish abilities are just too different.

Cerrone was tagging Cote all night long before that perfect left hook. Same with Story and even more if you count the sick combination he put at the end of the fight. He did not flattened any of those guys. As Robbie Lawler would say: "that was the accumulation of a beatdown".

Woodley is more the kind of guy that is looking to time and land that 1 big right hand.

True, good point. But Woodley did land that big right hand and Gastelum wasn't even rocked.

 

[EzFlyer]

MJ dec +650 vs khabib here

 

[Sadistics]

MJ dec +650 vs khabib here

Not sure if a decision or KO is more likely here, interested to see the KO line

 

[EzFlyer]

Not sure if a decision or KO is more likely here, interested to see the KO line

Gonna be the same as mj itd

 

[OneWarrior1]

I already have 4.5U on cowboy and am starting to get cold feet wanting to hedge some.

Just about ready to put 3u on wb but he always gets tagged. Is there any evidence that he has a solid chin? I need to rewatch wb Hendricks, as Hendricks has a similar wrestle boxer style as wood. Wood only throws single strikes.

 

[Brick Top]

I already have 4.5U on cowboy and am starting to get cold feet wanting to hedge some.

Just about ready to put 3u on wb but he always gets tagged. Is there any evidence that he has a solid chin? I need to rewatch wb Hendricks, as Hendricks has a similar wrestle boxer style as wood. Wood only throws single strikes.

It doesn't matter if you have a solid chin. Woodley has power to put anyone down if you land clean.

I already know that he doesn't have a granite chin though. He's been dropped before

 

[SBJJ]

WB was dropped by Berger but it was the definition of a flash knockdown. WB immediately popped up and took him down

I think WB is a super intelligent fighter and will use his length and footwork to stay out of trouble early.

He is literally the best type of fighter to bet on. He smoked Johnny but didn't go after Rory the same way. He was very calculated. And WB offensive wrestling is Top Notch at the moment. I think he could hit takedowns even on Woodley if it goes past 1.5 rounds

 

[OneWarrior1]

I just placed 5U on wb. I think he makes it look easy. He will confuse the hell out of tyrone.

 

[piglord]

still have this crazy shit alive:

Michael Bisping @ 4/9
Gegard Mousasi @ 3/10
Stefan Struve @ 8/15
Rob Font @ 1/3
Iuri Alcantara @ 10/17
Raquel Pennington @ 6/4
Michael Johnson @ 2/1
Donald Cerrone @ 10/17
Tim Kennedy @ 5/11
Marcin Held @ 1/2
Derrick Lewis @ 1/2
Dillian Whyte @ 1/12
Tony Bellew @ 1/14
13 Folds, 1 bet * £6.50

 

[Tebowned]

Going pretty big on this card as it's such a huge card!

I haven't placed all bets but it's gonna look something like:

2.5U Alvarez. Hope his odds get better. Not placed yet.
5U Wonderboy... Hit opening.
3.5U Joanna -350.
1.6U Weidman today. Will add more if his odds get better. Feel he's a bad matchup for yoel.
1U Gastelum- Think he gets to +180 by fight night though so i'll wait.
2.5U Khabib -250 hit today. Not opposed to adding more. I feel this fight gets scrapped though.
1U Natal probably. He's better everywhere besides power and redneck strength.
1U alves. I think he beats up Jim if he can make weight healthy.


Tate or maybe tate decision no more than 1U.
Frankie decision and/ or stephens KO you never know.

 

[t6p]

Anyone have any info on Good's injury? He hasn't fought since July 2015 and he was last scheduled to fight in December but pulled out due to an "undisclosed injury".

 

[mkess101]

I already have 4.5U on cowboy and am starting to get cold feet wanting to hedge some.

Just about ready to put 3u on wb but he always gets tagged. Is there any evidence that he has a solid chin? I need to rewatch wb Hendricks, as Hendricks has a similar wrestle boxer style as wood. Wood only throws single strikes.

Ellenberger landed one good shot on WB and Wonderboy's recovery was instantaneous iirc. We've seen what Ellenberger can do when he lands on guys, so I have confidence in WB's chin. That said, getting hit flush by Woodley can potentially end anyone's night.

But imo Woderboy is going to be too much for him. The angles, fight IQ, power with a huge variety of strikes, and accuracy is so much to deal with. I have some on WB moneyline and his ITD, but I might also make a big play on his -3.5 depending on odds. I think he's going to win, and it's either gonna be by complety befuddling and clowning Woodley for 5 rounds or by taking him out.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think there's a very good reason Woodley tried to avoid a fight with WB.