UFC 207 - Nunes vs Rousey - Vegas

[TimCoreCombat]

I love the dogs here...

And I can't believe I'm saying this but I think Thatch is parlay fodder...

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Dodson stopped him maybe premature tho and that was the old tj.

Lineker has more ways to win. He could win a dec or win by ko. Hell he could sub tj if he rocks him first unlikely i know. Tj dec only imo. I always said tj and cruz are tough fights for lineker due to their movement. But how is lineker a bigger dog than cody against cruz when cody has beaten thomas 'pls hit me as much as you can' almeida and a chinless mizugaki only. I havent watched tape yet but assunciao was fairly competitive i remember r3 was pretty close. Cody accusing him of being off gear...

Someone whos watched tape chime in pls

I'm going hard on Magny. I've watched a lot of tape and assuming Hendricks looks anything like his last three fights, I'm not sure how the hell he hangs with Magny.

I love Linekar too.

I may even play Cody.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I don't know how you can justify a bet on Hendrick's based on his last two performances. He has looked awful and now that he's doing his own camps I have no faith he can win a fight.

The more I've been thinking about it, the more i like Hendricks down at -115ish.

He's lost to strikers. Whens the last time Magny outstruck anyone.

Magny is gonna have a hell of a tough time taking Hendricks down. And if Hendricks wants to put Magny on his back, he probably can

This is assuming Hendricks is in good shape. So buyer beware in that regard.

I'm not some Hendricks nuthugger. I have been against him most of the time over his last 6+ fights. But that's against the cream of the crop.

Yea. Barring Hendricks looking soft/unmotivated, I'm on him at this price point.

 

[LEMONZEST]

think Ronda by Sub (+110) is good enough value?

I think it is priced about right. The fight is a pick em and sub is most likely way for Honda to win.

 

[SBJJ]

To those betting Magny. I'd caution maybe waiting to see how Johnny looks at weigh ins. A motivated Hendricks is a very tough out for Magny IMO

 

[iGnP]

I think it is priced about right. The fight is a pick em and sub is most likely way for Honda to win.

Right. There's no debating that. But playing a prop to hit that often is always a risky proposition. Like O said, it'd be a shitty way to lose a bet if Ronda just won by TKO

 

[iGnP]

I'll probably be on Hendricks if he checks out at weigh ins. Magny gets hit quite often and doesn't have the greatest takedown defense (I'm captain obvious here, leave me alone). We're getting line value Bc Hendricks has looked like shit recently but there's a massive skill disparity between WB/Gastelum and Magny. Magny has heart and toughness for sure but idk how likely he is to capitalize on it in this match up

 

[The MM Analyst]

To those betting Magny. I'd caution maybe waiting to see how Johnny looks at weigh ins. A motivated Hendricks is a very tough out for Magny IMO

Even a terrible-looking Hendricks is a tough out for Magny, I think. Magny's striking is really bad, honestly. He can't manage distance well, he has poor defense and not much counterpunching to punish guys from hitting him. His strength is in the clinch and as bad as Hendricks has looked, his struggles have been at range, not in the clinch. I would be leaning Hendricks heavily if he hadn't looked so bad recently, but I can't justify a bet on either guy.

 

[The MM Analyst]

After watching tape, I'm big on Borg. Smolka's TDD isn't very good. He also doesn't have the distance management to keep Borg away like Scoggins did. Smolka wades in with punches, stepping through and overextending often, and is easily backed up to the cage. Smolka is a very good scrambler, but Borg has the kind of top control you rarely see at flyweight. He's an excellent control grappler and active enough with passes that he should be able to shut down Smolka's scrambling.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Also really like Borg/Smolka >2.5 at -129

 

[mkess101]

I love the dogs here...

And I can't believe I'm saying this but I think Thatch is parlay fodder...

I haven't seen this Niko guy fight, but can he be THAT bad at 8-0 with 7 finishes that Thatch should be -350 against him? Even if this Niko guy is fighting complete cans?

We are talking about the same Thatch that got outgrappled severely by Siyar before being subbed right? Siyar, that's really not a grappler at all?

I'm not saying you're wrong, because like I said I haven't seen this Niko guy fight. But if Thatch (who's shown glaring deficiencies in grappling and cardio) should be -350, this Niko guy must be the worst 8-0 guy with 7 finishes in the history of MMA.

 

[mkess101]

I'll probably be on Hendricks if he checks out at weigh ins. Magny gets hit quite often and doesn't have the greatest takedown defense (I'm captain obvious here, leave me alone). We're getting line value Bc Hendricks has looked like shit recently but there's a massive skill disparity between WB/Gastelum and Magny. Magny has heart and toughness for sure but idk how likely he is to capitalize on it in this match up

There isn't a massive skill disparity between Magny and Gastelum at all. This wasn't all that long ago...

Magny held his own just fine striking with Kelvin (both guys had their moments) and Magny outgrappled him and won the fight.

 

[The MM Analyst]

There isn't a massive skill disparity between Magny and Gastelum at all. This wasn't all that long ago...

Magny held his own just fine striking with Kelvin (both guys had their moments) and Magny outgrappled him and won the fight.

Scoring that fight for Magny was completely unjustifiable (can see draw of Kelvin winning) and there was, imo, a huge disparity in how good Kelvin looked between this fight and his fights against Hendricks and Kennedy. Even so, Magny won the fight in the clinch and did very little at range, whereas Kelvin beat Hendricks at range and struggled in the clinch. There is a very large skill disparity in distance striking between Gastelum and Magny. If you think Magny beats Hendricks in the clinch, it makes sense to bet on him, but I don't.

 

[mkess101]

Scoring that fight for Magny was completely unjustifiable (can see draw of Kelvin winning) and there was, imo, a huge disparity in how good Kelvin looked between this fight and his fights against Hendricks and Kennedy. Even so, Magny won the fight in the clinch and did very little at range, whereas Kelvin beat Hendricks at range and struggled in the clinch. There is a very large skill disparity in distance striking between Gastelum and Magny. If you think Magny beats Hendricks in the clinch, it makes sense to bet on him, but I don't.

I scored it for Magny at the time, it wasn't unjustifiable at all. It was a back and forth fight in which Magny outgrappled Kelvin much of the time. At range iirc Kelvin had the better of it, but not by a wide margin. 1 out of 16 media scorecards had it for Kelvin, 4 had it for Magny, the rest as a draw. I scored it Magny 48-47 but a draw was certainly reasonable. Either way, my point was that there isn't a "massive skill disparity" between the two, which there obviously isn't.


Yes, I think the current version of Hendricks gets the worst of it in the clinch with Magny. I think Johnny seems unmotivated, and may potentially be worse than before due to USADA.

For the record it's not like I think Magny should be a huge favorite or anything. There's paths to victory for Hendricks. But I do favor Magny a little and at +100 he's the bet here imo.

 

[piglord]

To those betting Magny. I'd caution maybe waiting to see how Johnny looks at weigh ins. A motivated Hendricks is a very tough out for Magny IMO

replace the word "motivated" with "juiced" lol. if hendricks looks like shit again on the scales i'm slamming magny.

 

[cCrown]

I haven't seen this Niko guy fight, but can he be THAT bad at 8-0 with 7 finishes that Thatch should be -350 against him? Even if this Niko guy is fighting complete cans?

We are talking about the same Thatch that got outgrappled severely by Siyar before being subbed right? Siyar, that's really not a grappler at all?

I'm not saying you're wrong, because like I said I haven't seen this Niko guy fight. But if Thatch (who's shown glaring deficiencies in grappling and cardio) should be -350, this Niko guy must be the worst 8-0 guy with 7 finishes in the history of MMA.

I believe thatch is in the -200/250 range now

 

[mkess101]

I believe thatch is in the -200/250 range now

Wow yeah hadn't been checking. I bet Niko at +250 yesterday. Apparently others didn't think Thatch should be so steep either.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Niko Price

-8-0, 27 years old, 6kos and 1 sub, most wins in r1 against low end scale fighters
-Cape Coral camp (american top team)
-short notice replacement signed for fight 2 weeks ago

Last few YT fights:





Some other footage of him doing some grappling matches, amateur boxing matches and NAGA matches also about on YT.

Short notice, padded record fighter coming in while thatch needs a win to keep his job here
(3 sub losses). Price looked average really, winged punches and haymakers thrown, take downs against the cage where he used his physical strength were one thing of interest. Got backed up by opponents with power though and had to resort to take downs to survive and win the fight.

Thatch should get the win, but he has poor cardio @ 170 pounds and shown he can get taken down and laid on quite easily, even by strikers like siyar. Don't trust him and Niko is unproven and short notice.

thatch straight up, but will have to put a flyer on Price for value, maybe his decision/sub prop line.

This guy is a second coming of Brian Camozzi.Thatch sucks big time and has big holes in his game but this guy wont expose him. Seems to be a striker with only one sub win in his record. I think thatch wins this one easily.

 

[Card]

Price is actually significantly higher ranked that Thatch on fightmatrix... 147 spots at WW.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Cowboy oliveira has beaten pretty poor opposition in the ufc - kj noons merritt moon hallmann and brooks had a broken rib. Means is brutal and i think a step up in style and brutality for cowboy

and who has means beaten? washed up john howard is his best win imo.