UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

[Jae Gibbz]

Ferg SPLIT is +1465? I could easily see a situation where each guy has two clear rounds and a tossup round determines the whole fight. Sprinkle sprinkle.

Yeah, I like that. Already on it.

 

[AffectEffect]

Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?

Also, Andre "The Asian Sensation" Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.

I'm with you on Andre @+120, I think he is the more technical and dangerous striker. Morales has terrible fight iq and could potentially walk into Andre's power all night. I doubt Morales tries to lnp, hopefully Andres tdd holds up if so.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?

Also, Andre "The Asian Sensation" Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.

I have 2u on Kelly and might add more. He is my fave dog on the card. With his Judo TDs I could see him controlling the fight easily.

Thanks for heads up on south. I dont remember him but will be on him.

 

[mkess101]

I get you but I've been trying to evolve my style away from hitting so many props, unless something REALLY jumps at me, like Miller dec +9xx a few weeks ago (which of course didn't hit, lending credence to my current feeling about props) I could've had Reem dec +500 at one point so I don't mind passing on the current price.

I am considering the over, but again, trying to be less cute with my approach. I'm always super cautious playing any HW overs in the first place, and in this case we have arguably one of the hardest punchers in MMA history fighting someone who can finish him standing or on the ground. I don't think a finish is super likely but there's enough concern for me to maybe pass altogether.

Fair enough on the prop philosophy. I may go a bit too heavy sometimes on them myself (but then I'll also have nights where I wreck the books with them so I think I'm ahead with them long term). But the o1.5 seems better than Reem ML to me. It's a straight bet, basically betting on Reem doing what you want him to do (avoid exchanges and be Econoreem). I don't see Reem hitting any TD's to allow him to gnp. Reem has a nice guillotine but that's off guys shooting on him which no way Hunto does. I just don't see that value in paying -140 over +110 for the off chance Reem finishes Hunt early. That's just me. Plus I'm covered if somehow Hunt is winning but it's not by blasting Reem unconscious early.

 

[iGnP]

o2.5 for Rashad/Kelly is -120? Am i wrong in thinking that should be more juiced?

 

[waiguoren]

Wasn't he losing the rematch until he landed that knee? I need to rewatch

Yes. Just watched it yesterday.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Fair enough on the prop philosophy. I may go a bit too heavy sometimes on them myself (but then I'll also have nights where I wreck the books with them so I think I'm ahead with them long term). But the o1.5 seems better than Reem ML to me. It's a straight bet, basically betting on Reem doing what you want him to do (avoid exchanges and be Econoreem). I don't see Reem hitting any TD's to allow him to gnp. Reem has a nice guillotine but that's off guys shooting on him which no way Hunto does. I just don't see that value in paying -140 over +110 for the off chance Reem finishes Hunt early. That's just me. Plus I'm covered if somehow Hunt is winning but it's not by blasting Reem unconscious early.

You are winning me over.

And right after I say that about props I hit Ferg split haha.

 

[mkess101]

You are winning me over.

And right after I say that about props I hit Ferg split haha.

LOL I have that too at +1465. Along with about a bazillion other Ferg bets. Got kinda reckless here. That said, I'm only really fucked if Khabib finishes because a lot of my action is NOT Khabib itd at -265. But I have plenty of other Ferg action too...

 

[t6p]

Elkins/Bektic over 1.5 -150? I feel like this should be over 2.5 and be even more expensive. I hit it to win 2u.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Yes. Just watched it yesterday.

Yeah, I just rewatched it. Andre was slightly losing the all striking affair to the smaller Moy who is more of a grappler, if I'm not mistaken (Anybody feel free to correct me if I am wrong). Moy attempted zero TDs in the rematch. While that knee from Andre was nice, I'm not sure if it will be there for the taller Morales. I would have liked to see more of Andre's sweeping leg kicks in that fight.

I cap Morales around -135, so I felt a half unit on him was appropriate at -105. They both have defensive holes, but I think Morales' output and pressure win him the fight here. I would not be surprised if Andre pulled it off, though

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Elkins/Bektic over 1.5 -150? I feel like this should be over 2.5 and be even more expensive. I hit it to win 2u.

Yeah, really weird. They opened it at o2.5 and changed it to o1.5

 

[Sadistics]

Yeah, really weird. They opened it at o2.5 and changed it to o1.5

I hope they do that with the Tybura over. Both coming off finishes and they set it to 2.5 at -odds

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Yeah, really weird. They opened it at o2.5 and changed it to o1.5

I was about to say.... wtf I wouldve nabbed that at -145 had I noticed it was o1.5, thought I was going crazy lol

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

LOL I have that too at +1465. Along with about a bazillion other Ferg bets. Got kinda reckless here. That said, I'm only really fucked if Khabib finishes because a lot of my action is NOT Khabib itd at -265. But I have plenty of other Ferg action too...

Do you have any Ferg NSC too? Great value when it was -170

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I was about to say.... wtf I wouldve nabbed that at -145 had I noticed it was o1.5, thought I was going crazy lol

I was able to get -130 on a different site, while 5d still had it at o2.5. I only risked a half unit because I thought it might have been an error. Wish I did more lol. Oh well

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I was able to get -130 on a different site, while 5d still had it at o2.5. I only risked a half unit because I thought it might have been an error. Wish I did more lol. Oh well

Nice find. I think I'll wait for full props for my play on this fight.

 

[Johnbmma1]

what is the max amount that you can live bet on 5Dimes?

 

[waiguoren]

I was able to get -130 on a different site,

Which site?

 

[wack3d]

Elkins/Bektic over 1.5 -150? I feel like this should be over 2.5 and be even more expensive. I hit it to win 2u.

crazy line indeed i dropped 3u on it at around -156 @ pinnacle would have done much more if i caught the opener line-125

 

[mkess101]

Do you have any Ferg NSC too? Great value when it was -170

I think it even opened better than that. I passed on it since I went so heavy on Not Khabib itd at -265. I think the fight has a fairly decent shot of going to the cards, so the extra juice to get paid instead of push is fine by me, esp since I have the Ferg ML and Ferg sub bets too. My not Khabib itd makes me feel a bit less exposed on those bets since I think Khabib's best chance to win is dec and if he does I get paid on my not itd bet.