Early Fight Pass, I like Joachim, Benitez/Barzola over, and JAG. I see a bunch of overs hitting there after as the card progresses with the exception of Poirier/Alvarez and any HW fight tonight.
Joachim is a BJJ black belt with a stout chin. Not sure why Guwop is favored -160 to finish this fight. His debut wasn't impressive to me. De Lima gave him that guillotine choke on a silver platter. I could honestly be de Lima's BJJ coach. Gulov isn't going to have an easy time trying to tap Joachim. With that said, Golov's striking isn't even good. He fires off hard shots but he ain't got no boxing. He sprints across the cage and crosses his feet exposing himself to get hit. He also doesn't look like he can go a hard 3 rounds.
Onto Joachim, he's actually pretty agile for a guy with his build. I love that he always sticks his jab out and he's got height and 6 inch reach advantage here. He's got a reliable jab-cross and if Gulov starts to get tired and they clinch I can see the taller man spamming uppercuts, elbows, and knees and chipping at the Russian. Upset alert right there. But I also noticed the Russian is training at ATT maybe his game has improved so the safer route could be the NOT ITD +130.
Anyways, why again is this dude -400? The Russian factor I presume.
With the two Latino dudes, I think it'll hit the scorecards unless Barzola shoots a sloppy shot and Benitez hits a guillotine.
Lastly on the final play of the Fight Pass prelim parlay, I like JAG to win an Edgar-lite workman decision. I think she puts the stamp on rounds via being on top. I think she's got solid entries into her TDs unlike most females that always go for the dreaded head & arm throw. Also, JAG never lost her cool against Gadhela and found her adjustments and turned up her work rate in the 3rd round. She's at a disadvantage when it comes to size and length however but Casey almost never keeps the fight upright. There's a reason why she has never won a decision in her career. Anyone who pulls guard and their name isn't Demian Maia deserves to be an underdog, scribe that into the Betting Commandments. I also don't see Casey having an easy time tapping a BJJ brown belt. Personally, +125 and rising is the play but the o2.5 is probably more solid if you're set on playing Casey already.
Unsure of how the judges in Texas will be scoring tonight or what are the rules anyways? I'm unsure so I can't really say until I watch these fights unfold and play as I go.
