UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[Stunna77]

Hit Yair +180 and Maia -120. Mas may very well be a bad matchup for Maia, but until I see someone stop his td's and top game, I will take -120 all day. You could argue that Mas has had good matchups on his current run as well. He hasn't faced a really good grappler since Khabilov tossed him around 3 or so years ago and has never faced anyone close to Maia's level..

 

[t6p]

I think this will be similar to the Maia vs McDonald fight.

Maia has had some good style match ups on his latest run and I think he has over performed. He turns 40 this year and I think his luck runs out against Masvidal, it's a nightmare match up for him. Unlike Condit who was a gift.

The question for me is if Maia does manage to get him down early in the fight (which I think more likely than not he will), does Mas have the defense to survive and/or make Maia work hard enough to tax his gas tank? I need to go back and watch some tape but I don't recall Masvidal being put in too many bad spots on the ground off the top of my head. And he's obviously never fought anyone near Maia's level on the mat.

EDIT: Stunna beat me to that last part

 

[Officer_Brown]

Btw im big on Andrade. I think she is a very bad matchup for Joanna. #AndNew

 

[mkess101]

I think this will be similar to the Maia vs McDonald fight.

Maia has had some good style match ups on his latest run and I think he has over performed. He turns 40 this year and I think his luck runs out against Masvidal, it's a nightmare match up for him. Unlike Condit who was a gift.

Could be. I think Mas throws better combos and has overall crisper boxing than Rory ever did (even at Rory's best), but Rory had a better jab and was a better counter wrestler than Mas. Plus Rory is a big WW while Mas is a small one.

 

[mkess101]

The question for me is if Maia does manage to get him down early in the fight (which I think more likely than not he will), does Mas have the defense to survive and/or make Maia work hard enough to tax his gas tank? I need to go back and watch some tape but I don't recall Masvidal being put in too many bad spots on the ground off the top of my head. And he's obviously never fought anyone near Maia's level on the mat.

EDIT: Stunna beat me to that last part

Cerrone is a really good MMA grappler but he's also in love with his muy thai so he wasn't working to get the fight to the mat vs Mas at all.

 

[timmyclax22]

Why is Edgar on the decline all of a sudden? Am I missing something?

Food for thought - he's only lost to Jose Aldo in the last 5 years.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

If it's 1.50 or better then yes. Will not buy juiced Edgar.

Well he's already juiced but it could be worse, I am actually leaning towards Yair.

Edgar is ageing and he hasn't looked great in his last two fights, Yair just looks better and better everytime,

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Btw im big on Andrade. I think she is a very bad matchup for Joanna. #AndNew

I disagree again, not jumping on JJ's current number though. Andrade is going to get touched up, Hill had some success on the feet, JJ will have more. The volume will be too much, I think Andrade is going to take a beating.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Why is Vick fighting that bum Polo? wtf doesn't make sense. he should figth someone better

 

[Officer_Brown]

I disagree again, not jumping on JJ's current number though. Andrade is going to get touched up, Hill had some success on the feet, JJ will have more. The volume will be too much, I think Andrade is going to take a beating.

I'm quite opposite, I think Joanna will take a beating. #AndNew. Joanna is overrated. She is like ronda on pads but pads don't hit back. Jessica is too much for her. Pillowfist karolina even tagged her. Andrade has more power.

 

[Jamah]

Why is Vick fighting that bum Polo? wtf doesn't make sense. he should figth someone better

Marco Polo Reyes has a 3-0 UFC record , and he is fun to watch. He is not a top prospect but he is not a bum

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Could be. I think Mas throws better combos and has overall crisper boxing than Rory ever did (even at Rory's best), but Rory had a better jab and was a better counter wrestler than Mas. Plus Rory is a big WW while Mas is a small one.

Good points. Both Mcdonald and Masvidal have great wrestling defence, boxing and cardio.

Maia doesn't have a great gas tank and he is going to have to work hard for the TD's. In the Mcdonald fight Maia got him down in round 1 but then gassed and couldn't do anything in rounds 2 and 3. Something very similar could happen here.

Masvidal is the worst style match up for Maia at 170, besides maybe Woodley. UFC praying Maia takes this L

 

[mkess101]

Well he's already juiced but it could be worse, I am actually leaning towards Yair.

Edgar is ageing and he hasn't looked great in his last two fights, Yair just looks better and better everytime,

Yair's last 2 fights...IDK man. He looked good for stretches vs Caceras (I was actually very impressed by his gas tank in that fight--his style would lend itself to slowing down a lot and he really didn't) but he didn't look amazing imo against a good but not great opponent.

And BJ Penn...jeez he really is just a shell of a fighter. He was done years ago and then the layoff too. I mean, yes Yair looked good and did what he should have so not saying you can hold anything against him there, but c'mon.

Frankie (as was pointed out) has only lost two competitive decisions to Jose freaking Aldo in the last FIVE YEARS. Look at the guys he's beating too (and making it look easy for the most part). Brutalized Cub. knocked Mendes out in rd 1, bested Stephens (which granted was competitive but Stephens is a huge FW with big power and a guy who seems to have made big leaps over the second half of his career).

Edgar has been fighting (and for the most part beating) the top of the LW and FW divisions for like 8 years now. Unless you think he's on some big decline (and he didn't look like it vs Stephens imo) then not sure how you can't make Frankie a moderate favorite. His cardio, boxing, wrestling are all top level. Yair will have the advantage in being the more versatile striker and probably will have a small speed edge, but that's about it imo.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

I'm quite opposite, I think Joanna will take a beating. #AndNew. Joanna is overrated. She is like ronda on pads but pads don't hit back. Jessica is too much for her. Pillowfist karolina even tagged her. Andrade has more power.

I just think Andrade will be too slow and her punches will be too short. JJ got that 5 round experience too. JJ is the best striker in WMMA.
#AndStill

 

[Officer_Brown]

I just think Andrade will be too slow and her punches will be too short. JJ got that 5 round experience too. JJ is the best striker in WMMA.
#AndStill

Hill fight was high volume fight and Andrade looked good by the end of 3rd. I bet she can go 5rounds if needed. And andrade will be the bigger woman.

 

[Stunna77]

Why is Edgar on the decline all of a sudden? Am I missing something?

Food for thought - he's only lost to Jose Aldo in the last 5 years.

Stephens had him on skates his last fight. Just doesn't seem to take punches as well these days (taken a lot of punishment) and I think the Aldo lose had to take some wind out of his sails knowing that was his last shot at 145 title.

 

[Sham5916910]

I just think Andrade will be too slow and her punches will be too short. JJ got that 5 round experience too. JJ is the best striker in WMMA.
#AndStill

She's going to struggle to deal with Andrade's pressure IMO.

 

[Officer_Brown]

She's going to struggle to deal with Andrade's pressure IMO.

Yup. This fight will look like Prazeres vs Burkman.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Yair's last 2 fights...IDK man. He looked good for stretches vs Caceras (I was actually very impressed by his gas tank in that fight--his style would lend itself to slowing down a lot and he really didn't) but he didn't look amazing imo against a good but not great opponent.

And BJ Penn...jeez he really is just a shell of a fighter. He was done years ago and then the layoff too. I mean, yes Yair looked good and did what he should have so not saying you can hold anything against him there, but c'mon.

Frankie (as was pointed out) has only lost two competitive decisions to Jose freaking Aldo in the last FIVE YEARS. Look at the guys he's beating too (and making it look easy for the most part). Brutalized Cub. knocked Mendes out in rd 1, bested Stephens (which granted was competitive but Stephens is a huge FW with big power and a guy who seems to have made big leaps over the second half of his career).

Edgar has been fighting (and for the most part beating) the top of the LW and FW divisions for like 8 years now. Unless you think he's on some big decline (and he didn't look like it vs Stephens imo) then not sure how you can't make Frankie a moderate favorite. His cardio, boxing, wrestling are all top level. Yair will have the advantage in being the more versatile striker and probably will have a small speed edge, but that's about it imo.

I think Edgar is declining, he's older and he's had his run at the top. He did not look great vs Stephens, that fight was a lot closer than the scores suggested.

Yes BJ is washed but god damn did Yair slaughter him like no one else has. This guy literally looks better every fight, I know that saying gets used a lot but it's very true here. You can watch the skill progression from fight to fight.

I expect him to be on yet another level that we have not seen before and I think he will overwhelm BJ. Don't sleep on Yair's wrestling either, crazy scrambles too.

Edgar has great fundamentals and has mastered the basics, Yair is anything but basic.

Old school vs New School, I'll take the up and comer, not the guy on his way out.

 

[mkess101]

Stephens had him on skates his last fight. Just doesn't seem to take punches as well these days (taken a lot of punishment) and I think the Aldo lose had to take some wind out of his sails knowing that was his last shot at 145 title.

I don't care what anyone says, Jeremy has HUGE power at FW. The type of power where he doesn't even need to land flush to wobble guys.

That said, I'll readily admit Frankie at times trusts his chin a bit too much maybe. He'd gotten away from that after the two horrible first rounds with Maynard where he almost got finished but seems like recently he's more willing to stay in the pocket and throw down (did it vs Mendes and landed first obviously, then did it again a bit vs Stephens).

So yeah, there's realistic concern with that vs a young dynamic striker like Yair. No question.