UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[TimCoreCombat]

I was never very high on Poirier, but Alvarez chin/miles are def a concern. I am confident that a prime Alvarez handles Poirier 9/10.

I will probably pass.

I like both fighters as a fan but I'm not sure how you can definitively say which one will win. Both are chinny and both throw bombs. I guess I would play the under if I had to but I don't think I would love a play on either one straight up.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

She gets pressed against the fence way too easy for me to rave about her footwork. Kk and claudia had her pinned against the fence A LOT.

I don't think she minded the fence in either of those fights. She generally wizards and gets right out when in trouble. I also think she likes to fight in the pocket when she knows she's better.

Honestly, I think this fight is going to be a JJ decision or Andrade tko but I also think JJ will know she has to use her feat here and avoid the rush. I watched a lot of her tape pre-UFC and the footwork is there when she wants it. I expect her to use it here. She is a smart fighter.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I could easily see Andrade winning a decision... in fact, I think it's one of the most likely results.

It's similar to the Lineker/Dodson fight, except JJ doesn't have nearly the movement and power of Dodson, and Andrade is a way bigger grappling threat than Lineker.

I guess we just have this one capped different. I don't see where Andrade can outpoint JJ unless she somehow has some 10-8 rounds where JJ is hurt but not finished. I fully expect JJ to outvolume Andrade and JJ's tdd is excellent.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Andrade has a very unique swarming striking style that you don't see often in MMA... even men's. You do see it often in pro boxing, though, and it's very effective against strikers who rely on range like JJ. Couple that with JJ having to worry about the grappling, and Andrade showing amazing cardio in her last fight, and I think JJ will have some major problems in this fight.

You may say that Andrade throws like Wanderlei, but I don't see it. She throws like a swarmer in boxing, and she has surprisingly good snap for a woman, which allows her to have good volume without gassing.

But in boxing you don't have those kicks and JJ has some nasty kicks.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

One random play I'm making is the under 1.5 in the Poirier/Alvarez fight. This is just the second under 1.5 I've bet in my life, but at +185 with two chinny guys who have good precision/power and can't help brawling, there's no way it can be that bad of a bet.

I like that play a lot.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

lmfao @ this athleticism talk still going on.

Athleticism will have NOTHING to do with Maia vs Mas. lol @ making a convo out of it like Mas is some world class athlete

Exactly. I was a highly rated athlete coming out of high school in a sport and after college when I converted to muay thai and other martial arts, I regularly got handled by guys that were less athletic than me because they simply had better technique to counter the power I threw.

Athleticism should have little to do in factoring a fight because these are true skills. Most major league baseball pitchers are terrible "athletes" but are the best at what they do in their game.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Sergio is a decent fighter but man for someone with that many ufc fights he aint half had it easy and hes still blown fights and made others a lot closer than they should be. I have still seen a serious lack of fight iq up to his most recent fight you would have expected him to have that in order 8 fights or so into his ufc career.

I'm with you on this one. I absolutely hate Sergio in this fight. I don't love Cejudo as a fighter in general but nothing I have seen shows me that Sergio has the skill or the mind to win this one.

 

[iGnP]

Fair point for sure. But then we don't actually know for sure about Maia either as I'd imagine he focused his training on only things that aid in his grappling.

spoiler bc i realize this athleticism rant is getting old

Spoiler

Ok but what point are you trying to make? You look at Jon Jones trying to dunk a basketball and go 'wtf' because he looks so much more athletic in the cage than he does while doing a movement he's not used to. But If Maia looked like that while trying to dunk, I don't think any of us would have a similar reaction because he doesn't do anything to lead us to believe he's a plus athlete.

Do you consider great designated hitters in baseball to be great/elite athletes? I feel as though that's something very comparable because, while it inherently involves coordination, strength, and speed, it's more of a skill than it is a feat of pure athleticism. Maia's quickness and explosion, or lack thereof, can potentially hinder his ability to get takedowns on some of the more athletically gifted fighters, there's no doubt about that. Maia, at least thus far at WW, has found a way to make his game effective in spite of that but his success as a grappler doesn't mean he's an elite athlete, at least when compared to other professional athletes

 

[ill800]

She gets pressed against the fence way too easy for me to rave about her footwork. Kk and claudia had her pinned against the fence A LOT.

I recently watched kk vs jj. Johanna champ absolutely schooled her in the clinch. I have to vehemently disagree She was in no way pinned against the cage a lot.

She Dominated karolina where karolina was strongest at. I was at 205 and saw the fight in person but after watching it at home I was really impressed with johannas perfomance. She is an absolute savage

 

[LEMONZEST]

^^ this convo sure is getting old.

Maia is a 39 year old elite grappler who has adapted his BJJ to MMA very well....that's pretty much it. We all know what to expect with Maia and what he is capable of. No one cares about a semantic discussion of what "athletic" means ffs.

 

[iGnP]

^^ this convo sure is getting old.

Maia is a 39 year old elite grappler who has adapted his BJJ to MMA very well....that's pretty much it. We all know what to expect with Maia and what he is capable of. No one cares about a semantic discussion of what "athletic" means ffs.

That's why the post was spoilered...

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

^^ this convo sure is getting old.

Maia is a 39 year old elite grappler who has adapted his BJJ to MMA very well....that's pretty much it. We all know what to expect with Maia and what he is capable of. No one cares about a semantic discussion of what "athletic" means ffs.

It's a very interesting and eye opening conversation imo

 

[jrleclerc88]

Im suprised so many people are on masvidal.. The way maia effortlessly strangled condit was a real eye opener(although condit did retire right after so maybe he wasnt 100% committed.) Maia has a VERY impressive resume as of late its really tough to go against him.

 

[jrleclerc88]

I like both fighters as a fan but I'm not sure how you can definitively say which one will win. Both are chinny and both throw bombs. I guess I would play the under if I had to but I don't think I would love a play on either one straight up.

Ill take alvarez, odds are off on that one imo. poirier had a close fight with miller and a really quick turn around. Alvarez was getting the better of cowboy for a solid round, had a good tough fight with gilbert (with his eye completely shut), and smothered pettis. Alvarez has shown he can hang with good competition dont let the mcgregor fight fool you

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Just watched a lot of tape on Skelly vs Knight. Here's my notes.

This is an interesting fight, I was impressed by Skelly, but I definitly like Knight much more here. Skelly's tough and is constantly improving, obviously very efficient at the grinder style of fighting, very solid chokes and nice ground defense as well. He's good at using sub threats to get out of bad spots. He does have power in his hands as well. His movement is improving every fight, but still not quite there yet. He also does seem to gas a little earlier then i'd like. Not the fastest guy on the feet. I find the only time Skelly is "controlling" the pace of a fight, is when he is completely successful at implementing his game plan. When he is not getting easy takedowns, I find he's prone to getting controlled.

Knight's first fight against Kawajiri was not impressive, he seemed eager to try and win with the rubberguard and basically got blanketed and controlled the whole fight. But since then he's looked outstanding. Extremly aggresive style, very nice solid striking. Always agressive, even if it's the third round and he is dead tired. His ground game is sick, very effective on the ground offensively and defensively. Only con is he's been takendown quite a bit in a few fights. He's also hittable, but has a rock solid chin, and often returns with a stronger punch.

Overall, I don't think it will be to easy, but this is Knights fight to lose. Knight wins standing up for sure, he's got a solid pace and attack, and I haven't been to impressed with Skelly's overall movement. Knight was able to land solid shots on the very fluid Caceres. I find Skelly's only method to victory is grinding out a win with takedowns and top control like Kawijiri did... but I don't see that happening. I think Knight is to tough and skilled on defense to allow that to happen. So I think we'll see a lot of this fight standing, and Knight definitely has the edge here. Chaz could knock him out, he has solid power, they both fought Alers and though I thought overall Knight looked more impressive, Chaz did knock out Alers. Also Chaz seems very motivated and constantly improving, but I feel that way about Knight too.
Conclusion: Knight will win. Hard to say wether it will be by decision or if he gets the finish, I think his aggresive style will be tough for Skelly.

Haven't looked at the odds but I wouldn't bet Skelly anything under +240.

Edit: also note, we saw Skelly fight another fighter with an agressive style in Elkins, and he looked like shit.

i cap skelly as fav. he will be able to get takedowns then lots of scrambles. lots of attempted back tacks. giving the edge to skelly here just due to the fact that it will be him who starts on top from the takedown. skelly the better finisher but he is also more likley to risk losing position. knight better on the feet but thats canceled out by skellys power. hoping skellys camp change and conditioning will improve stamina a touch

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

i cap skelly as fav. he will be able to get takedowns then lots of scrambles. lots of attempted back tacks. giving the edge to skelly here just due to the fact that it will be him who starts on top from the takedown. skelly the better finisher but he is also more likley to risk losing position. knight better on the feet but thats canceled out by skellys power. hoping skellys camp change and conditioning will improve stamina a touch

Knight is the better grappler.

 

[northsofia]

Dustin - Alvarez go to decision will be interessting line. Alvarez was knocked out by McGregor but he got beaten hardly for round and a half. I dont think DP can beat him so hard and Alvarez has KO`d only dying Dos Anjos in the UFC. Absolute coin flip fight, think to play the underdog when the fight comes (hope this to be Alvarez).

O1,5 for JDS/Miocic looks like a lock to me, think to sell my kidney and bet the whole amoun of money on it

 

[Stunna77]

Dustin - Alvarez go to decision will be interessting line. Alvarez was knocked out by McGregor but he got beaten hardly for round and a half. I dont think DP can beat him so hard and Alvarez has KO`d only dying Dos Anjos in the UFC. Absolute coin flip fight, think to play the underdog when the fight comes (hope this to be Alvarez).

O1,5 for JDS/Miocic looks like a lock to me, think to sell my kidney and bet the whole amoun of money on it

I don't really care for either of those bets. Alvarez and Dustin both have power and have been KO'd recently. Their fight will likely play out on the feet and both can be sucked into brawling. A finish either way would not be surprising.

JDS/Miocic are hard hitting HW's and this fight will also play out on the feet. To call the over a lock is, uhhh, not wise, to say the least. Again, either guy finishing in the first round wouldn't be surprising.

 

[raketmannen]

I recently watched kk vs jj. Johanna champ absolutely schooled her in the clinch. I have to vehemently disagree She was in no way pinned against the cage a lot.

She Dominated karolina where karolina was strongest at. I was at 205 and saw the fight in person but after watching it at home I was really impressed with johannas perfomance. She is an absolute savage

Just rewatched it aswell, did not remember Joanna being so dominant, especially in the clinch. Also landed over 80 legkicks. Andrade's last 3 opponents have let her bully them against the cage, only covering up or trying to get thai clinch while she swarms them with strikes to the body and head, leaving her head very exposed while doing so. Joanna loves elbow strikes in the pocket and when breaking the clinch, expecting her to slice andrade up in close instead of just covering up and taking damage. The champ is on another level than Andrades past fights in strawweight, who have been extremly favorable matchups for her. But let's hope the andrade hypetrain continues so we can get joanna at close to evens

 

[jack5603]

i cap skelly as fav. he will be able to get takedowns then lots of scrambles. lots of attempted back tacks. giving the edge to skelly here just due to the fact that it will be him who starts on top from the takedown. skelly the better finisher but he is also more likley to risk losing position. knight better on the feet but thats canceled out by skellys power. hoping skellys camp change and conditioning will improve stamina a touch

Skelly could get some takedowns, but I don't see Knight allowing him to lay n pray. If it stays on the feet, he's going to outpace and outwork Skelly. Eventually Skelly will gas, probably go for desperate shots, and could end up in a bad position like Caceres did. Knight forces a quick pace, that I don't think Skelly can keep up with. Skelly threatens a KO punch, but I'm going to trust Knight's chin until shown otherwise.