UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

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SBJJ said:
Plekz. I'm not trying to be a dick. But u saying there's no evidence Max can go 4 or 5 hard is just as bad or worse than guys saying Jose Can not because of a fight from years ago

I have never seen Aldo KO Donald Trump but I'm pretty sure he would. U don't have to see something to know that it's probable
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max threw 212 total strikes in three rounds against pettis without gassing

aldo threw 193 total strikes in five rounds against edgar.

i dont think max will have any problem matching output with aldo if he averages 45-50 punches a round which is what he is going to do

at this level, these guys know what their bodies can and cant do
 
I give up. Max preferred pace is 70+ strikes a round. Yet Aldo is gonna tire him out by forcing him to do what?

Thinking Max will tire is kinda out there man. It would be like thinking Max is gonna out leg kick Aldo.

Guys like the Diaz Bros and Max focus a large part of their training on Cardio. They actually fucking run, you know, like run miles.
 
quincy k said:
max threw 212 total strikes in three rounds against pettis without gassing

aldo threw 193 total strikes in five rounds against edgar.

i dont think max will have any problem matching output with aldo if he averages 45-50 punches a round which is what he is going to do

at this level, these guys know what their bodies can and cant do
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That's my point. Aldo will obviously attempt to slow the pace down. So thinking he will tire Max out is kinda crazy. He might very well hurt or even stop Max. But I'll be way surprised if we see Max huffing n puffing in rds 4 and 5 because Aldo is out striking him or grappling
 
SBJJ said:
I give up
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fight at a pace he's not used to, and absorb strikes that's gonna deplete his energy? what purpose do you think legkicks have for instance? muscles fill with blood, forcing the lungs to push out even more oxygen in order to keep the legs moving, meaning your energy goes down. 'bodyshots' isn't the only thing that depletes cardio.

your acting as if the fight is gonna take place in a vacuum where there are no intangiables to consider at all. just a straight up question, why do you think max is gonna be able to handle the kicks of aldo all of a sudden when there's atleast three instances in the past that shows that he's not that great at it? or are they all of a sudden a non factor?

iGnP:

60 - 40 in favour of aldo i would say, coinflip if max can figure out how to handle aldo's kicks, but i'm not gonna count on it, since no one else have had much success doing it in the past, and aldo will be considerably faster then holloway is.
 
SBJJ said:
That's my point. Aldo will obviously attempt to slow the pace down. So thinking he will tire Max out is kinda crazy. He might very well hurt or even stop Max. But I'll be way surprised if we see Max huffing n puffing in rds 4 and 5 because Aldo is out striking him or grappling
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its right there in the fight metrics.

its not lke max only threw 100 punches agaisnt pettis to support an argument regarding a possibly holloway cardio problem
 
plekz said:
fight at a pace he's not used to, and absorb strikes that's gonna deplete his energy? what purpose do you think legkicks have for instance? muscles fill with blood, forcing the lungs to push out even more oxygen in order to keep the legs moving, meaning your energy goes down. 'bodyshots' isn't the only thing that depletes cardio.

your acting as if the fight is gonna take place in a vacuum where there are no intangiables to consider at all. just a straight up question, why do you think max is gonna be able to handle the kicks of aldo all of a sudden when there's atleast three instances in the past that shows that he's not that great at it? or are they all of a sudden a non factor?

iGnP:

60 - 40 in favour of aldo i would say, coinflip if max can figure out how to handle aldo's kicks, but i'm not gonna count on it, since no one else have had much success doing it in the past, and aldo will be considerably faster then holloway is.
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I never said Max would handle the leg kicks. I simply said IMO Aldo would tire himself out trying to wrestle n grapple with Holloway and leave himself open to danger in rds 4/5.

Now you're asking me why I think Max can handle leg kicks. Something I never said.
 
Sorry guys but I have been sick and not been able to post or contribute this week. I have not even been able to keep up with my site and I have selected five fights to do breakdowns on. I will post them here and if anyone wants to read them at my site that is fine. It's just a cleaner way out of reading as if I post the full breakdown ITT it's going to take up incredible amount of space and if I put it in the spoilers it's going to be condensed and look like a fucking "War and Peace" novel. If only Tolstoy broke down MMA fights LOL


I just don't want people complaining that I'm spamming my site. If anyone has a problem with it or move it immediately. But like I said I'll also post the breakdowns ITT


http://mmagamblingtips.com/blog/index

BTW: tell me if I should put these in spoiler and I will go back and do that too.
Without further blah blah blah blah… Here are my breakdowns:


145 lbs.: Jose “Junior” Aldo (26-2) vs. Max “Blessed” Holloway (17-3)

The wizard is back! A Muay-Thai wrecking machine with the best TDD in the game, Aldo is back to remind the world why 13 seconds don't define a career. Nor should they. After going undefeated for over a decade, Jose Aldo was flattened, humbled, and embarrassed by his nemesis Conor McGregor on the biggest stage of his career.

All he did to get back on track was thoroughly demolish the pesky wrestle-boxing warrior Frankie Edgar for five rounds. Not only did Aldo beat Edgar to get his title back, but he didn't even break a sweat. Using his 93% take down defense and a few sparse striking weapons in the jab and occasional right hook, Aldo thoroughly shut Frankie down and made a future Hall of Fame fighter look like a rank amateur. That is the level of athlete and mixed martial arts technician you are dealing with when talking about the greatest featherweight to ever don a pair for ounce gloves.

Prior to stifling Edgar, there were times when Aldo was beginning to look a bit more human than before. Namely, in fights with the Korean Zombie, Ricardo Lamas, and especially in his second tilt against Chad Mendes. In the rematch with Chad, Jose was hit more times than any other fight I can remember him being in. He wasn't just hit clean, but he was dropped and at times plodding without any head movement whatsoever. It's a testament to how good he is that he is able to have off nights and still win the fight.

Aldo is at his best when he's able to play the role of counterpuncher. The 30-year-old featherweight kingpin has never been especially great playing the role of the stalker. When he is putting people onto highlight reels, it's usually off of the counter. That is when he is slipping a shot and using his amazing quick twitch muscles to explode into something like a coiled spring. You rarely see Jose on his front foot throwing volume strikes or causing his man to wilt under the pressure. Instead the best anti-wrestler we've ever seen uses his takedown defense to dictate where the fight takes place, and elite counter-striking to defeat them.

Riding a 10 fight win streak in the UFC's Featherweight division, Max Holloway is looking to unify the 145 pounds straps this Saturday. He's also looking to show the world that he is the best featherweight all the planet. A victory over Jose Aldo would go along way in doing just that.

When it comes to growing up and developing before our very eyes, Max is the fighter we can most relate to. The 26-year-old Hawaiian began his UFC career with only four fights to his resume and was thrown directly to the walls against Dustin Poirier. He was quickly submitted but it didn't take a special person to see that the UFC had a diamond in the rough on their hands. All he has done since losing that debut is win 10 of his last 12 fights. More importantly is who he has done it against.

Anthony Pettis, Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira, Ricardo Lamas, and Jeremy Stephens are just five of the heavy hitters the Holloway has vanquished en route to this title shot.

One of the most notable aspects of Holloway's game in 2017 is the maturity. Gone are the "flash first" and "crowd entertainment" stylings of yore. Today Max only leaps into the air for a flying knee if it's there, not merely to drop jaws.

Max Holloway is exceptionally talented. The lone FW to take McGregor's "Touch of Death" straight left and live to tell the tale. Holloway has demonstrated an iron beard but a lot ot his ability to withstand bombs to the dome is his carefree and composed demeanor in the cage. Max worries about kicks and punches flying at him like a bird worries about it raining worms. Like a concert pianist with music, fighting is his way to express himself and he does it with beautiful destruction.

If you're looking for a style to beat Jose it is a counterstriker with excellent footwork who is also able to make Aldo come to him. The best example of this was the first time that Randy Couture fought Chuck Liddell. For years Chuck was able to get on his bike and use his counter-wrestling to remain upright and pick his man a part from outside. However. Randy made Chuck lead the dance and that is not his style.

Max Holloway has the skill set to do this. What's more, he has the cardio to drain Aldo's battery. Holloway is a more active striker. In fact, Holloway attempts 13.2 significant strikes per minute whereas Jose attempts 7.6 significant strikes per minute. Holloway all lands more SSPM than Aldo. The difference being 5.67 per minute compared to 3.28 for Aldo.

Potentially the worst that Aldo has looked aside from the Chad Mendes tussle was his war of attrition against kickboxer Marc Hominick. Don't get me wrong, Aldo was in control for major portions of this fight and busted Hominick up to the point that the Canadian looked like the Elephant Man after the bout. However, Hominick had his moments. Specifically, the former title challenger was able to slip Aldo's strikes and work the midsection throughout the fight. A lot of people blame Aldo fading from a terrible weight-cut — which is partly true — but it was the repetitive body shots from Hominick that exacerbated the depletion of Aldo's gas tank.

Holloway is a much better boxer and diverse striker than Hominick, and if he can repeat this blueprint and add to it, he is going to put himself in a position to pull off the upset.

Watching footage to research this fight and break it down has been a joy. It caused me to remember just how damn good Jose Aldo is. Nevertheless, I believe we see in upset on Saturday. I think Max Holloway uses his spindley 5'11" frame to tower over the 5'7" Aldo and pepper him with relentless strikes from every direction. Max is going to make Jose dig to the bottom of the tool chest if he wants to keep the strap around his waist.

The 26-year-old Hawaiian cuts angles exquisitely and through controlled chaos moves like a well lubricated weathervane. I believe everything is coming together perfectly at this time and after weathering the early storm Max definitively takes rounds three, four and five to solidify himself as the undisputed featherweight champion of the world.


Prediction: Max "Blessed" Holloway by decision
 
MMA Goodfella said:
words
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and he handles the kicks how? you wrote all that without even mentioning them? eventhough holloway have shown in the past that his ability to check kicks have been lackluster to say the least.
 
185 lbs.: Paulo Henrique “Borrachinha” Costa (9-0) vs. Oluwale “Holy War Angel” Bamgbose (6-2)


Having entered the octagon a perfect 5-0 and middleweight champion of the New York-based Ring of Combat organization, Bamgbose had the appearance of a future prospect. Athletic, explosive and shredded like Greek Adonis, the Nigerian savage aesthetically looks like the avatar of the villain that you would fight in the last level of a video game. On the regional circuit he had been tearing apart all comers like a man amongst boys. However, his UFC debut against the mercurial Uriah Hall demonstrator why physical features are at the be all and all. In fact he was exploited as Hall proved that Bamgbose must refine his striking and develop his fundamentals if he were to have any serious success in the big leagues.

Since that ill-fated Octagon debut two years ago, the 29-year-old has had spit-and-sputtered his way to to a mediocre 2-2 record. Having alternated wins and losses, the "Holy War Angel" is a frightening beast of a man in the first round, but if he is unable to get his opponent out of there in the opening stanza, the wheels start to come off of the train.

Still a very raw fighter, Bamgbose is a extremely athletic individual with quick twitch muscles and pernicious power in his hands. However, lack of technique and conditioning problems continue to stifle his growth.

Paulo Borrachinha is an undefeated Brazilian brawler (9-0) whose style is very similar to that of promising prospect Kelvin Gastelum. Indeed, like Kelvin, the Brazilian is a southpaw and works behind a ramrod jab and throws tight end crisp combinations in deadly sequence. Walking his man down, Borrachinha will crack them with the straight left jab before launching a thunderous roundhouse kick to the midsection. This is often followed up with a volley of shots to the head. Following the Gastellum similarity theme, like the American, Borrachinha is very deft at taking the back if giving the briefest of openings.

mTmMvB


Borrachinha's fought in the estimable Jungle Fights organization prior to signing the UFC. Most impressive is the Brazilians strength of schedule. The 26-year-old hasn't been fed a steady diet of regional cans but has instead faced very respectable competition. In fact, over the course of his last five fights, Borrachinha's opposition holds a prestigious 36-10 record. He finished them all inside the first round.

This fight is going to be violent. All of Bamgbose's victories have come by first-round knockout. Ditto for Borrachinha. However, while the oven is ostensibly a boxer only, the Brazilian throws a variety of techniques including kicks to al levels and a vicious high head kick.

DeX54Z


The Nigerian will enjoy a protracted six-inch reach advantage in the fight though he's going to give up a few of inches in height.

One way or another this contest is ending with someone laid out flat and needing smelling salts to regain their faculties. The loser is going to wake up believing that he is in Saskatchewan, Canada and the date is purple.

The Brazilian is more fundamentally sound and pushes a relentless pace. If he doesn't get bombed on in the opening minute of the fight, it's going to be a bad night for Bamgbose.


prediction: Borrachinha by knockout round one
 
I was backing Aldo a month ago. I have now switched and will be backing Max. Aldo was a bad stylistic matchup for Frankie previously. It was a good fight for Aldo to come back to

After watching the weigh ins Aldo still looks like he doubts himself. Conor really did wreck the guy inside and out of the ring. I don't think it's an easy win for Max but if he can shock and frustrate Aldo early, those mental demons will come back and i see Max getting a DEC, possibly even a KO.

My main bets are:

Pereira DEC
Carlos Junior
Moraes
Nancy
Bamgbose Rd1 Rd2
CG DEC
Max KO, DEC

GL all
 
135lbs- #10 JOHNNY EDUARDO (28-10-0) vs MATTHEW LOPEZ (9-1-0)

Fighting out of the Eugenicist Training Facility — formerly Reign — with head coach Trevor Whitman, The 30-year-old Matthew Lopez is an exciting wrestle-boxer with an ever developing skill-set. The Colorado native was four-time state and national wrestling champion freestyle and Greco. He also wrestled collegiately at Cal St. Fullerton. Since making the leap to future-time professional face puncher, Lopez has been a true talent. Bringing that same grinding minded intensity to MMA that he used on the mats, the wrestle-boxer utilizes speed, strength and tenacity to overwhelm his opposition.

Lopez is an explosive athlete who is perpetually on his front foot and in his opponents face. Stylistically his game is very reminiscent of the fan friendly brawler Dennis Bermudez. Like "The Menace" you won't catch Lopez taking a backward step and even when he is rocked he will fight on instinct. Such was the case with Mitch Gagnon after he was dropped with a short left hook and a punch away from the referee stop in the fight. Incredibly Lopez rallied to win a the fight.

This pugnacious approach to fighting can potentially be attributed to the fact that his main sparring partner is newly minted UFC signee Justin Gaethje

While not the most technically sound pugilist, Lopez uses his offense for a defense and never let's his opponent catch a breath. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, he has an excellent right jab that he follows up with brutal kicks to the body and crisp hooks in the pocket. What's more, he mixes up his striking and wrestling very well. Like the aforementioned Bermudez, he will be striking one second and then seamlessly transitioning into a blast double leg takedown thereafter. He is very explosive and this was illustrated aptly it is fight with Mitch Gagnon when he countered his adversaries aggression by hitting a perfectly timed O Goshi directly into full mount.

The biggest issue surrounding Lopez is his Swiss cheese-esque defense. He often enters the pocket reckless leaving him ripe to be countered. A recipe for potential disaster against a striker the caliber of a Eduardo.

Clocking in at a spry 36-years-old, Johnny Eduardo set the betting world ablaze when he cashed as an ultra-heavy +610 underdog by dusting top ranked Bantamweight Eddie Wineland. Looking anything but his age that night, Eduardo utilized his apex Muay-Thai and stifling TDD to absolutely tune the younger man up. Unfortunately he wasn't able to keep the momentum rolling as he was defeated in his subsequent outing by the blue-chip prospect Aljamain Sterling.

Entering this fight off of a knockout victory over a long time MMA veteran Manny Gamburyan, Eduardo has recaptured some of that momentum he stole from Wineland in 2015. Currently ranked inside the top 10, at his advanced age, Eduardo is going to be fighting for his UFC life if he intends to make any sort of a title run.

The striking coach of the vaunted Nova Uniao squad, Eduardo has a stable of killers to train with daily. Foremost among those young lions is Featherweight champion Jose Aldo. A veteran of MMA, Eduardo is not just a striking specialist, he is a crafty grappler and holds the rank of BJJ purple belt.

This is a tough fight to break down as it is old school versus new school and striker versus grappler for the most part. Lopez is going to be nine years younger than Eduardo and has far less miles on the damage odometer. Moreover, Eduardo has sustained multiple injuries throughout his career and limited his time in the cage as a result. He has fought sparingly over the last five years and you never know what to expect with him.

Anticipate Eduardo using his advantageous striking and stiff TDD to take Lopez out of his element and force him into a kick boxing match. He will also try and use Lopez’s southpaw stance against him by kicking the the midsection with his back leg and putting him in line to be clubbed by his brutal right hand. However, I believe that the speed of Lopez is going to cause issues for the elder statesman. Expect Lopez to be repeatedly switching stances and mixing things up to keep Eduardo from getting into a rhythm.


Prediction: Lopez by decision/with a flyer on a submission prop

 
nate gonna be 0/7 v southpaws after this weekend
 
EzFlyer said:
allllll over moyle NSC +215

moyle is officially my biggest bet on the card, now. price is just way off.
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moyle nsc is great bet there. that line should be the other way round
 
125lbs- MARCO BELTRAN (8-5-0) vs DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO (11-0-0)


Marco Beltran (MMA 8-4 / UFC 3-1) entered the UFC off the inaugural season of TUF Latin America. He got into the house with a victory over Guido Cannetti prior to losing to eventual runner-up Jose Quinonez. Enterting the UFC proper Beltran was not highly touted. In fact, he was the underdog in each of his first three UFC appearances only to cash a trio tickets. This included a fiery performance against the TUF: Latin America winner Reginaldo Viera wherein the Mexican slugger showed off his grappling chops by tapping the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt with a gorgeous RNC in the second round.

Marco Beltran entered the UFC off the inaugural season of TUF Latin America. He got into the house with a victory over Guido Cannetti prior to losing to eventual runner-up Jose Quinonez. Enterting the UFC proper Beltran was not highly touted. In fact, he was the underdog in each of his first three UFC appearances only to cash a trio tickets.

This included a fiery performance against the TUF: Latin America winner Reginaldo Viera wherein the Mexican slugger showed off his grappling chops by tapping the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt with a gorgeous RNC in the second round.

Physically, Beltran is a decently crafted athlete with a long 71" reach which is exorbitantly prodigious in the Flyweight where this fight will be contested.

The foremost problem with the 34-year-old brawler is that he doesn't know how to set up his strikes. He doesn't know if he wants to be a boxer or a TKD/Karate style fighter where he's hanging out on the fringe and playing sniper. This unorthodox approach is detrimental to Marco's but at the same time it does serve to confuse his opponent and keep them off kilter. Beltran is at his best when he is throwing kicks or punches from a distance. When he enters the pocket he stands too upright and leaves himself vulnerable to be cracked.

Nevertheless, he makes it work well enough to reel off three straight inside the Octagon.

Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo will be debuting in the UFC on Saturday in his home country. The Brazilian trains both the Alcantara brothers (AKA "Marajó Brothers") and Coalizão Fight Team where he has ran off a flawless professional career so far. With ten finishes (five submissions and five (T) KOs) in eleven fights, "Daico" has proven himself to be a versatile fighter and opportunistic finisher. Daico has competed three times for the esteemed Jungle Fight organization where he went undefeated with three finishes.

A Karate fighter, Figueiredo stands in the typical broadside asymmetrical stance, and uses explosive an abbreviated blitzes to land leather. The 24-year-old Brazilian darts in and out of the pocket to deliver violent blows and mixes it up with excellent stellar grappling. He is excellent at transitioning seamlessly from striking to wrestling and keeping his opponent on the defensive. His submission grappling is very good —which is to be expected — being a student of the brothers Alcantara.

He also throws unorthodox striking techniques and has tremendous power for a 125 pound man.

_LN2yB


The biggest issue surrounding the UFC debutant's game is his defense. Like most Taekwondo/Katate practitioners, he chooses to keep his hands at his waist. When you are fighting at 125 pounds this is incredibly dangerous because of your opponents speed. In previous fights he has been hit flush as a result and was nearly finished in his penultimate outing. Fortunately for him he has demonstrated the ability to take a shot and recover quickly. Unfortunately, this is not a viable approach to moving up the UFC ladder and will be exploited as his strength of schedule improves.

Stylistically this is a very winnable fight for Figueiredo as he will have the advantage in the speed, power and explosive striking department. However, Marcos is a dog and always pressing forward. He is also going to be 5'8" tall with a 71 inch reach fighting in the flyaway division. Provided he doesn't gas out, Beltran has a great chance of pulling off the upset. Although he isn't known to be a one shot one kill striker, Beltran does have pop in those gangly extremities and if Daico keeps his hands at his waist, he's likely to get smashed..

As mentioned earlier, the Brazilian has been lamped multiple times on the regional circuit and is not likely to change his style all of a sudden.

6AVRLV


If Daico fights with his hands down as normally does, Beltran can very well land the finishing blow. Additionally, the Brazilian has shown suspect cardio in the footage I've seen and if Beltrán's weight cut doesn't attrit him, I believe he can pull away down the stretch.

Prediction: Marco Beltrán x by TKO

 
170 lbs.: Erick “Tiger” Silva (19-7, 1 NC) vs. Yancy “The Kid” Medeiros (13-4, 1 NC)


An absolute offensive juggernaut with top level athleticism and dynamic abilities, Erick "Tiger" Silva is a black belt in every pertinent traditional martial art. This is from the striking disciplined of Karate and Taekwondo to the grappling stylings of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo. Essentially Silva is a scholar of TMA perspicacity. With his explosive style and whirlwind violence, he's always must see TV win or lose.

Despite his encyclopedic amalgamation of martial arts, the former blue-chip prospect has been a bit of a bust. Six years. Thirteen fights. Two nicknames. Essentially, throughout his UFC tenure the talented Brazilian hasn't been able to stop stepping on rakes.


However that might have changed.

The epiphany reportedly occurred after being starched by Nordine Taleb in his penultimate UFC appearance.

Following the loss Silva decided to leave the prestigious training camps he had previously prepared in favor of a smaller gym that could focus exclusively on him. Initially, existing notable facilities such as X-Gym, Team Nogueira and Kings MMA in lieu of a local camp seems counterproductive. However, this has long been the approach of high-level boxers and UFC champions Demetrious Johnson and Stipe Miocic have fared quite well.

In his first appearance after the camp switch, Silva took on a young hungry 23-year-old Luan Chagas and demonstrated a more tempered approach.

That brings me to the observation of the fight from Dominic Cruz who was calling the bout. Cruz used two words in the third round to describe what he was seeing from Silva. They were, "fundamentals" and "maturity".

Chagas dropped Silva in the first. In the past "Tiger" would have panicked and found a way to lose. However, this time he remained composed and weathered the storm. Maturity. By the third round both men were exhausted, but while Chagas attrited himself with wild looping overhands, Silva remained poised and picked his shots. Stiff Jabs. Uppercuts. Right hooks. And finally a opportunistic RNC to end the show. Fundamentals.

The second most famous Hawaiian on the UFC 212 docket is Yancy Medeiros. The 29-year-old comes into enemy territory having won five of his last eight fights. However, the Cesar Gracie product has not been able to stitch together consecutive victories since 2014. He has alternated wins and losses thereafter. A member of the vaunted "Skrap Pack" Yancy often emulates the striking stylings of the Diaz Bros. This means consistent pressure and rat-a-tat-tat peppering drumbeat punching attack.

Following in the footsteps of his former 155 pound contemporaries Jorge Masvidal and Donald Cerrone, Medeiros chose to move 15 pounds north to test out the 170 pound waters. If his initial appearance as a Welterweight is in any way indicative of what we can expect, Yancy has made a wise decision. In what I believe to be his best performance to date, Medeiros shut down the very underrated Sean Spencer and ultimately submitted him with a tight RNC in the second round.

At 74 and 76 inches respectively, Medeiros will enjoy a marginal edge in the reach department and is likely the superior striker of the two. He can also generate a lot of power in his punches with his long arms he can

Picking a winner between Medeiros and Silvia about as easy as threading the eye of a needle with silly string. Their porous striking defense makes a close fight much more volatile.

At any rate, think Medeiros can make use of those elongated limbs and with persistent pressure break Silvia late.

As for a bet, this is little better than a coin flip of a fight and if Silva hits the magic +130 mark, I will feel propelled to pull the trigger.


Prediction: Medeiros third round TKO
 
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