UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

[quincy k]

Getting taken down doesn't automatically mean you're getting subbed, of course not. But IF Maia hits a TD and has Woodley on his back with any time at all to work, Woodley will be living an absolute nightmare. He will be in quicksand, praying he can hold on. And in that scenario, yes someone will gas. But it won't be Maia. Woodley having to defend off his back against a grappler on Maia's level if gonna make Woodley a walking zombie, maybe even after just one round of it. Woodley can go 5 rounds when there's long periods of staring at the other guy in a standup fight (like both vs Wonderboy). He doesn't have the gas tank to last 7 or 8 minutes trying to fend off a grappler like Maia on the mat.

If you think Woodley just stuffs all the TD's or is always able to get right back up, that's one thing. Then yes, he probably wins by KO. But thinking Woodley can get taken down and it's Maia's gas tank that's gonna get sapped is just way way wrong. Maia has shown he can play his game for at least 3 rounds. Woodley has gassed and slowed down in much less taxing situations then defending on the mat vs an elite grappler like Maia.

if maia does take woodley down it will most likely be against the fence where damian probably will not have much success securing a sub. my guess is that tyronne is going to play the fence game unitl the third round when damians tds are less effective and then he will take the fight to the center of the cage where he will have a serious advantage

 

[Thunderflash500]

Getting taken down doesn't automatically mean you're getting subbed, of course not. But IF Maia hits a TD and has Woodley on his back with any time at all to work, Woodley will be living an absolute nightmare. He will be in quicksand, praying he can hold on. And in that scenario, yes someone will gas. But it won't be Maia. Woodley having to defend off his back against a grappler on Maia's level if gonna make Woodley a walking zombie, maybe even after just one round of it. Woodley can go 5 rounds when there's long periods of staring at the other guy in a standup fight (like both vs Wonderboy). He doesn't have the gas tank to last 7 or 8 minutes trying to fend off a grappler like Maia on the mat.

If you think Woodley just stuffs all the TD's or is always able to get right back up, that's one thing. Then yes, he probably wins by KO. But thinking Woodley can get taken down and it's Maia's gas tank that's gonna get sapped is just way way wrong. Maia has shown he can play his game for at least 3 rounds. Woodley has gassed and slowed down in much less taxing situations then defending on the mat vs an elite grappler like Maia.

I envision Maia possibly taking Woodley down once. If he doesn't submit him at that point I see Woodley launching a bomb at Maia and knocking him out. Of course this is gambling and anything could happen. It's just what I see.

 

[MacPherson911]

Cowboy gets spooked easily

why do you say this? example?

 

[quincy k]

Sounds right. Honestly, he's one of my favorite fighters ever. I'm 40 now and was following MMA even back when Robbie was a young kid coming out of Pat Miletich's gym. He's always been amazing to watch. But yeah, he's taken an absolutely unreal amount of punishment over the years.

im going to live bet cerrone after the first round. all his stoppage losses have pretty much come in the first five minutes of the fight and he generally doesnt dominate until later, almost the complete opposite of a front runner

 

[mkess101]

if maia does take woodley down it will most likely be against the fence where damian probably will not have much success securing a sub. my guess is that tyronne is going to play the fence game unitl the third round when damians tds are less effective and then he will take the fight to the center of the cage where he will have a serious advantage

If you watch Maia, he's extremely effective with his grappling after a TD, be it in the center of the octagon or against the cage. Guys try to use the cage to get up against him, but he's always a step ahead in the grappling game. It's why he's able to take guys' backs so easily even when up against the cage.

We've seen Woodley gas doing much less than having to defend the grappling of someone like Maia (of which there maybe isn't anyone in MMA as effective with grappling anyway). How is it you think Woodley can "play the fence game" and defend Maia's grappling and somehow Woodley won't be exhausted?

Again, if you believe Woodley's strength, athleticism, and counter-wrestling are just plain good enough that he never gets put on his back that's one thing. Totally reasonable view, and if that happens Maia is almost surely getting blasted. But to think Woodley can play the grappling game for any more than a few minutes without getting way more tired than Maia is just ignoring every bit of evidence we have to go on.

 

[mkess101]

im going to live bet cerrone after the first round. all his stoppage losses have pretty much come in the first five minutes of the fight and he generally doesnt dominate until later, almost the complete opposite of a front runner

That's a good strategy honestly. I can't argue with that at all.

 

[quincy k]

If you watch Maia, he's extremely effective with his grappling after a TD, be it in the center of the octagon or against the cage. Guys try to use the cage to get up against him, but he's always a step ahead in the grappling game. It's why he's able to take guys' backs so easily even when up against the cage.

We've seen Woodley gas doing much less than having to defend the grappling of someone like Maia (of which there maybe isn't anyone in MMA as effective with grappling anyway). How is it you think Woodley can "play the fence game" and defend Maia's grappling and somehow Woodley won't be exhausted?

Again, if you believe Woodley's strength, athleticism, and counter-wrestling are just plain good enough that he never gets put on his back that's one thing. Totally reasonable view, and if that happens Maia is almost surely getting blasted. But to think Woodley can play the grappling game for any more than a few minutes without getting way more tired than Maia is just ignoring every bit of evidence we have to go on.

im live betting woodley after the first ten minutes at hopefully plus money.

 

[mkess101]

I envision Maia possibly taking Woodley down once. If he doesn't submit him at that point I see Woodley launching a bomb at Maia and knocking him out. Of course this is gambling and anything could happen. It's just what I see.

Fair. What happens after that one TD is what the key will be imo. If it's a scramble where Woodley is able to get right back up and separate, that's WAY different than him being controlled on the mat for a long period of time having to defend (even if he doesn't get subbed). The amount of energy it takes to defend off your back against a superior grappler is mind blowing. For guys with cardio for days it's not the end of the world. For a guy built like Woodley, it's a very bad scenario.

 

[mkess101]

im live betting woodley after the first ten minutes at hopefully plus money.

Also a solid strategy IF IF IF he hasn't spent those 10 minutes defending on the mat. If he has, you're going to be betting that someone moving like this...

...comes back and wins the fight.

 

[vkram]

Anyone have a read on Curran/Albu?

 

[DarkneT]

Sterling knight and Dober treble for me as soon as it's available

Im not willing to accept any arguments for them loosing
Unless the judges fuck me that's bulletproof
Make me an argument

 

[CR0W]

I love Maia, think his style is amazing to watch, a technical genius BUT I think he has to win in round 1 here or he loses.

Woodley has only been taken down twice in his last 15 fights. Whilst I appreciate Maia has fantastic chain wrestling and trips I just can't imagine him having the same success getting them here as he has against other guys. Woodley has a strong base, stocky and very thick; it's going to be very hard for Maia to secure those takedowns and if he does manage to he is going to use a lot of energy getting it to the mat and more to keep it there.

Maia is also very heavy on his lead leg, Woodley has some extremely heavy leg kicks, we've seen what he done to Condit and we've also seen Maia have his lead leg chopped out from under him. Maia offers little to nothing on the feet, just some flailing strikes to set up his shots so even with Woodley's tendency to be inactive at times he should still have a very clear advantage on the feet.

I think Maia has to sub him in round 1 or Woodley batters the lead leg, Maia gasses and Woodley puts him away in the 3rd or 4th.

 

[Slohog]

Anyone have a read on Curran/Albu?

Leaning Curran to be honest, and I had a lot of money on Albu in her last fight.

Can't trust Curran as a favorite against anyone, but at least she has some skills including decent athleticism, size, kickboxing and cardio. Her fight IQ is all kinds of shit but excluding the mental lapses I don't think she's horrible, she's probably borderline UFC level in pure skill. Also you get her at decent + odds.

Albu on the other hand had a close r1 and then subbed a gassed polish chick who at the time of the fight had 0 wins against fighters and might possibly have been the worst fighter to set her foot in the octagon in modern time. Before that she had a win over a 0-0 can and claims to have like four undocumented fights in Thailand.

Basically no one Albu has fought is even close to UFC level or the level of opposition Curran has been up against.

In addition to that she's been out for like two years due to "studies" and some small injuries/surgery, trains at a no name gym and hasen't trained full time but rather written her thesis and worked part time as a personal trainer or something like that.

Also if she was Brazilian and looked half as fit everyone would talk about USADA.

I think it's dog or pass, by some margin.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Barao is a more complete fighter. It depends a lot how Barao comes into this fight mentally. If his head is in the game he def has the skills to pay the bills here.

IMO AJ is a mental midget with an incomplete mma game.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

First big play is going to be a two-man parlay

Jones -255 + Woodley -200
Risking 4.5 units at +107

Will also be on Woodley via KO and Jimi KO

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Sterling knight and Dober treble for me as soon as it's available

Im not willing to accept any arguments for them loosing
Unless the judges fuck me that's bulletproof
Make me an argument

Why Sterling?

 

[t6p]

Barao is a more complete fighter. It depends a lot how Barao comes into this fight mentally. If his head is in the game he def has the skills to pay the bills here.

IMO AJ is a mental midget with an incomplete mma game.

I think I like Barao here as the dog too. Can Sterling get him to the ground? It seems unlikely with Barao's 97% takedown defense. Barao should also have a significant advantage on the feet IMO. Sterling's striking game has a long way to go and he seems to fall in love with it at times.

Also, the fight is at 140lbs, which should also benefit Barao as he's had issues with the weight cut in the past. I'd like to hear arguments for Sterling from those who favor him here.

 

[ApplesVild]

Can't imagine anything other than Maia getting KO'ed quickly happening

 

[weedreference]

Leaning Curran to be honest, and I had a lot of money on Albu in her last fight.

Can't trust Curran as a favorite against anyone, but at least she has some skills including decent athleticism, size, kickboxing and cardio. Her fight IQ is all kinds of shit but excluding the mental lapses I don't think she's horrible, she's probably borderline UFC level in pure skill. Also you get her at decent + odds.

Albu on the other hand had a close r1 and then subbed a gassed polish chick who at the time of the fight had 0 wins against fighters and might possibly have been the worst fighter to set her foot in the octagon in modern time. Before that she had a win over a 0-0 can and claims to have like four undocumented fights in Thailand.

Basically no one Albu has fought is even close to UFC level or the level of opposition Curran has been up against.

In addition to that she's been out for like two years due to "studies" and some small injuries/surgery, trains at a no name gym and hasen't trained full time but rather written her thesis and worked part time as a personal trainer or something like that.

Also if she was Brazilian and looked half as fit everyone would talk about USADA.

I think it's dog or pass, by some margin.

Albu looks pretty good on tape, though... far better striking technique than most women... and Curran is not the type of fighter to be able to take advantage of inexperience. With the judo background I also favor Albu in the grappling.

 

[vkram]

Leaning Curran to be honest, and I had a lot of money on Albu in her last fight.

Can't trust Curran as a favorite against anyone, but at least she has some skills including decent athleticism, size, kickboxing and cardio. Her fight IQ is all kinds of shit but excluding the mental lapses I don't think she's horrible, she's probably borderline UFC level in pure skill. Also you get her at decent + odds.

Albu on the other hand had a close r1 and then subbed a gassed polish chick who at the time of the fight had 0 wins against fighters and might possibly have been the worst fighter to set her foot in the octagon in modern time. Before that she had a win over a 0-0 can and claims to have like four undocumented fights in Thailand.

Basically no one Albu has fought is even close to UFC level or the level of opposition Curran has been up against.

In addition to that she's been out for like two years due to "studies" and some small injuries/surgery, trains at a no name gym and hasen't trained full time but rather written her thesis and worked part time as a personal trainer or something like that.

Also if she was Brazilian and looked half as fit everyone would talk about USADA.

I think it's dog or pass, by some margin.

I am leaning Curran too. Although I did rewatch Albu's fight vs Badurek and she looked pretty decent IMO. Stayed composed when against the cage and started circling out as the fight went on. Her striking looked decent too, I liked her straight punches.