UFC 222 - Edgar vs Ortega - Vegas

[Andy Capp]

If he beats Edgar via submission.. my face ---->

Frankie has 21 fucking fights in the UFC and has never been finished. If Ortega finishes him I'll be

 

[mkess101]

id rather just play Johnson -235 in a parlay with a underdog--the problem is, I cant find an underdog I like?

Johnson is a better athlete then Milstead.. He has a strong college wrestling background, rising jiu jitsu, can take a shot, slow with hands but takes the right technical approach and throws the jab out, shows good wrestling takedowns like Cormier.. Milstead is faster with the hands and on the feet, but I think he gets pushed against the fence and taken down. If Milstead wins I think its in the first with a fast KO or something but still Fortuna landed shots on Johnson and he survived. I think Johnson's fight IQ is OK so I don't see him standing there and trading.

Why do you need to pair him with a dog in a parlay? I don't understand that philosophy honestly. My opinion is find another favorite you are very confident in and pair him up with that. Then if there's a dog you like, just play that straight.

Arlovski is a dog that could cash for sure, but his odds have dropped a ton so you'd have to take +160 or whatever. Zingano can win if she's able to keep it standing. Munhoz is a live dog. Dolloway too if he survives rd 1. Some people like Caraway, but I don't really see it. None of these would be huge upsets or anything but they all have legit shots at winning.

From a value standpoint relative to the odds, AA is my dog pick. I think it's close to a toss up fight and he could easily find Struve's chin and put him away.

 

[Sadistics]

Zingano can win if she's able to keep it standing.

Woah what? Vieira wrecks her if it stays standing. It hasn't been exposed as all her fights have been 99% grappling but she looks absolutely awful on the feet. Tate rocked her multiple times, Pena easily outstruck her in the brief striking exchanges. Zingano does this strange spazzy feint then charges in flailing looking for the clinch in all her fights, wants nothing to do with the stand up.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yair’s best win coming into that fight was the KO against Fili, when Fili was complaining about an eye poke. Ortega’s resume is much more impressive.

I bet Frankie against Yair, I thought Yair was overhyped and it was a good matchup for him. It seems like everyone is on Edgar here but I’m not sure about this one.

I feel like it is a recipe we have seen before. Really pure BJJ guys hit a ceiling. Maia is a good example losing to Woodley.

Based on interviews it seems Ortega is aware of this and has tried to avoid being a 1 trick pony however he still kind of is IMO. He has serviceable striking but his boxing is going to look really bad against Frankie IMO.

Ortega's game plan is just too transparent for a savvy vet like Frankie. If Ortega subs him I will love it and jump up and down....but I just don't see it happening.

EDIT: still great value in Ortega r3 which is hovering around +2600. check out his record over the last few fights....this is a must bet line.

EDIT: my mistake Ortega r3 is around +1300. It is Edgar r3 that is +2600. I just accidentally put 20 on Edgar r3...anyway fuck it...let that shit ride.

 

[Sham5916910]

Confidence increase for Souk backers. O Malley's face tattoo is so bad. Just looks like he has a mole on his face now

Great betting philosophy

 

[mkess101]

Woah what? Vieira wrecks her if it stays standing. It hasn't been exposed as all her fights have been 99% grappling but she looks absolutely awful on the feet. Tate rocked her multiple times, Pena easily outstruck her in the brief striking exchanges. Zingano does this strange spazzy feint then charges in flailing looking for the clinch in all her fights, wants nothing to do with the stand up.

Really? I kinda think Viera will tool her on the mat honestly. I think Zingano's best path to victory is to stay outside, use teeps and range strikes and try to win a boring decision. I think Viera wrecks her if it's in tight or if it turns into a grappling match. Maybe I'm seriously overrating Zingano's standing finish of Tate, IDK. It's been so long she's fought, I can barely remember some of her fights. I guess that's why I passed on this fight completely. Won't be home to live bet, and don't want any $ on it with no chance to buy out of my bet.

 

[Sadistics]

Really? I kinda think Viera will tool her on the mat honestly. I think Zingano's best path to victory is to stay outside, use teeps and range strikes and try to win a boring decision. I think Viera wrecks her if it's in tight or if it turns into a grappling match. Maybe I'm seriously overrating Zingano's standing finish of Tate, IDK. It's been so long she's fought, I can barely remember some of her fights. I guess that's why I passed on this fight completely. Won't be home to live bet, and don't want any $ on it with no chance to buy out of my bet.

She only got the standing finish on Tate when Tate broke and was completely gassed. Tate won the early rounds and most of the damage in rd3 was done on the ground.

Nunes completely dominated in RD1, Zingano only won that cause again, her opponent gassed.

 

[mkess101]

She only got the standing finish on Tate when Tate broke and was completely gassed. Tate won the early rounds and most of the damage in rd3 was done on the ground.

Nunes completely dominated in RD1, Zingano only won that cause again, her opponent gassed.

Yeah I'm not remembering Zingano's fights all that well. I have no clue if there's value with her or not, and I'm not touching that fight.

 

[quincy k]

I love Ortega. Super nice guy with really outstanding BJJ. Sad to say but I think he gets pieced up tomorrow night.

Looking back at all the hype behind Yair Rodriguez....Yair got absolutely crushed. There are levels to this game. Even though Frankie is a few years old and maybe showing some wear I think he still mauls Ortega.

ortega is not going to have an answer for frakies excellent footwork. my guess is that edgar is just going to step in and out of the pocket throwing three or four punch combos while ortega unsuccessfully chases him around the ring for 15 minutes in frustration

 

[mkess101]

ortega is not going to have an answer for frakies excellent footwork. my guess is that edgar is just going to step in and out of the pocket throwing three or four punch combos while ortega unsuccessfully chases him around the ring for 15 minutes in frustration

I tend to agree.

 

[t6p]

I feel like it is a recipe we have seen before. Really pure BJJ guys hit a ceiling. Maia is a good example losing to Woodley.

Based on interviews it seems Ortega is aware of this and has tried to avoid being a 1 trick pony however he still kind of is IMO. He has serviceable striking but his boxing is going to look really bad against Frankie IMO.

Ortega's game plan is just too transparent for a savvy vet like Frankie. If Ortega subs him I will love it and jump up and down....but I just don't see it happening.

EDIT: still great value in Ortega r3 which is hovering around +2600. check out his record over the last few fights....this is a must bet line.

I posted my thoughts on the fight earlier in the thread. I agree with you, if Frankie's gameplan is to keep it standing and outbox him, I think he's likely going to win a decision. I think it's pretty clear that Ortega's boxing is not on the same level at this point and he's going to struggle with Frankie's speed and footwork.

But, I don't like the comparison to Maia. Ortega was competitive on the feet with Moicano, I believe it was the constant pressure that got to Moicano and forced him into the bad decision to shoot in the first place. He was also beating Guida in a striking battle and finished him with a knee. Bottom line, Maia doesn't win fights that don't go to the ground, Ortega does.

As we saw in the Cub fight, Ortega is going to get outclassed on the feet by the better strikers in the division. But, I've not seen an Edgar fight where he doesn't look to mix in takedowns. Ortega is so opportunistic, it might only take one mistake. I'm not jumping to bet against a guy like that. Especially when his opponent is at the tail end of his career and coming off of a recent injury.

 

[Sham5916910]

Beats saying "horrible post" to people who point out how sloppy O Malley is just cause you're on him even though he clearly is

Hey jb hear youre still betting peanuts lol

 

[LEMONZEST]

ortega is not going to have an answer for frakies excellent footwork. my guess is that edgar is just going to step in and out of the pocket throwing three or four punch combos while ortega unsuccessfully chases him around the ring for 15 minutes in frustration

I agree.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I posted my thoughts on the fight earlier in the thread. I agree with you, if Frankie's gameplan is to keep it standing and outbox him, I think he's likely going to win a decision. I think it's pretty clear that Ortega's boxing is not on the same level at this point and he's going to struggle with Frankie's speed and footwork.

But, I don't like the comparison to Maia. Ortega was competitive on the feet with Moicano, I believe it was the constant pressure that got to Moicano and forced him into the bad decision to shoot in the first place. He was also beating Guida in a striking battle and finished him with a knee. Bottom line, Maia doesn't win fights that don't go to the ground, Ortega does.

As we saw in the Cub fight, Ortega is going to get outclassed on the feet by the better strikers in the division. But, I've not seen an Edgar fight where he doesn't look to mix in takedowns. Ortega is so opportunistic, it might only take one mistake. I'm not jumping to bet against a guy like that. Especially when his opponent is at the tail end of his career and coming off of a recent injury.

Fair enough. Maia is the extreme example. I know Ortega has worked on being well rounded and has worked on boxing since he was young in addition to BJJ.

Ortega is legit one of my favourite prospects right now. In my heart I hope he does find the sub I really do.

However, as a bettor I am trying to objective. I think our boy gets schooled here.

 

[levitation]

Why do you need to pair him with a dog in a parlay? I don't understand that philosophy honestly. My opinion is find another favorite you are very confident in and pair him up with that. Then if there's a dog you like, just play that straight.

Arlovski is a dog that could cash for sure, but his odds have dropped a ton so you'd have to take +160 or whatever. Zingano can win if she's able to keep it standing. Munhoz is a live dog. Dolloway too if he survives rd 1. Some people like Caraway, but I don't really see it. None of these would be huge upsets or anything but they all have legit shots at winning.

From a value standpoint relative to the odds, AA is my dog pick. I think it's close to a toss up fight and he could easily find Struve's chin and put him away.

ty for the list of dogs. I would rather just play Struve -170 in a parlay tbh, but I agree with +250 Arlovski if I had the chance. Struve hasn't looked that bad lately and still has some good semi-recent wins. I think they all have legit shots, but I don't like the moneylines. I usually like to pick someone like -235 Johnson with a +300 underdog. I am watching Hernandez tapes now and probably won't bet on him (I like Dariush too much) but dont want to play the juiced line.

 

[NinjaCat456]

I just know I'm going to be waking up tomorrow to 14 pages of Sham and JB arguing like fuck again.

 

[t6p]

Fair enough. Maia is the extreme example. I know Ortega has worked on being well rounded and has worked on boxing since he was young in addition to BJJ.

Ortega is legit one of my favourite prospects right now. In my heart I hope he does find the sub I really do.

However, as a bettor I am trying to objective. I think our boy gets schooled here.

I hear you. It wouldn't shock me if Frankie comes out and puts on a great performance.

I get all of the reason to like Frankie here but I think sometimes you have to go with your gut and this is one of those spots for me. I'm small on the fight so far. 1u NOT Edgar decision +149 (couldn't resist taking some when it was basically the same as Ortega's ML) and a small stab at Ortega rd3.

 

[t6p]

2u Munhoz nsc +102. Love this, very hard to see Dodson finishing here IMO.

EDIT: 1u Caraway NSC +136 as well

 

[Gugabe]

2u Munhoz nsc +102. Love this, very hard to see Dodson finishing here IMO.

EDIT: 1u Caraway NSC +136 as well

Munhoz is there to be punched in the face. Dodson due for a walk-off KO1.

 

[mkess101]

ty for the list of dogs. I would rather just play Struve -170 in a parlay tbh, but I agree with +250 Arlovski if I had the chance. Struve hasn't looked that bad lately and still has some good semi-recent wins. I think they all have legit shots, but I don't like the moneylines. I usually like to pick someone like -235 Johnson with a +300 underdog. I am watching Hernandez tapes now and probably won't bet on him (I like Dariush too much) but dont want to play the juiced line.

Yeah I got AA at +240 so the value is diminished a lot now. I still like his KO line at +365 though. Obviously Struve could starch him, and AA might be about done, but I just can't usually pay juice in fights like this where it's two guys with questionable chins at HW.