UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

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CheeseAndHoneyMustard said:
So I shouldn't bet Tony, but I should make a +600 4 leg parlay. Wot?
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Yes, because each individual fighter's chance of winning isn't impacted by including them in your parlay.

Khabib + Kattar is a good parlay. Khabib Kattar Felder Chiesa is risky but I think each fighter has a good chance of individually winning, including them together doesn't make that more or less likely.

As for ROI, I've done quite well with parlays, but I understand having an aversion to them because of risk
 
I put .5 units on ferg split dec +1800, also put 2 units on Clark at -105. I think ferg winning by split is more likely then him winning by unanimous decision. I'm really just playing the odds though.

I think Clark is the more well rounded fighter but he could get caught. I liked him at -105 not so much at -125. Still 1.5 weeks away so line could improve.
 
anyone else feel obliged to take a stab on bochniak due to the silly odds?
 
There's something about the difference between Khabib and Tony's training that is making me more confident in Tony. I feel like Tony really tries to strengthen his weaknesses and prepare for worst case scenarios, while Khabib trains for the same gameplan in every fight despite his opponents strengths. When Tony fought 5 rounds against RDA, he moved to elevation, sharpened his striking defense after his last shaky performance against Lando, and ultimately outclassed and outpaced RDA, a notoriously high paced fighter. When Khabib's standup defense was exposed by Michael Johnson, he did nothing to fix it, I think his stand up actually looked worse against Barboza. When he hurt his knee leading up to his Cerrone fight at 178, he didn't take enough time off, took a fight against Barboza, then re-injured his knee and pulled out again. He just doesn't train smart. I don't think his cardio is going to be ready for 5 rounds and I don't think he has a plan B if he can't get Tony to the ground, or if his GnP is not doing damage against Tony. Tony can have a kickboxing match for 25 min, he could scramble for 25 min, or he could threaten off his back for 25 min. I'm on Ferg decision at +705, Round 4 +2050, Round 5 +2850. Also will be in attendance in Brooklyn sporting my new 10th planet hoodie. It's Tony time.
 
piglord said:
anyone else feel obliged to take a stab on bochniak due to the silly odds?
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I’m stabbing his itd line. Craig made a believer again, that it’s the best strategy in match-ups like this.
 
Betfair has Tony R4 +2500 and Tony R5 +3500...
 
zeckdo said:
for sure. ankalev-craig had similar odds and we know how that went.
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i actually think akalaev/craig and dawodu/henry both looked like more extreme mismatches based on the footage available, so i have no prob with a sprinkle on bochniak here.
 
zeckdo said:
There's something about the difference between Khabib and Tony's training that is making me more confident in Tony. I feel like Tony really tries to strengthen his weaknesses and prepare for worst case scenarios, while Khabib trains for the same gameplan in every fight despite his opponents strengths. When Tony fought 5 rounds against RDA, he moved to elevation, sharpened his striking defense after his last shaky performance against Lando, and ultimately outclassed and outpaced RDA, a notoriously high paced fighter. When Khabib's standup defense was exposed by Michael Johnson, he did nothing to fix it, I think his stand up actually looked worse against Barboza. When he hurt his knee leading up to his Cerrone fight at 178, he didn't take enough time off, took a fight against Barboza, then re-injured his knee and pulled out again. He just doesn't train smart. I don't think his cardio is going to be ready for 5 rounds and I don't think he has a plan B if he can't get Tony to the ground, or if his GnP is not doing damage against Tony. Tony can have a kickboxing match for 25 min, he could scramble for 25 min, or he could threaten off his back for 25 min. I'm on Ferg decision at +705, Round 4 +2050, Round 5 +2850. Also will be in attendance in Brooklyn sporting my new 10th planet hoodie. It's Tony time.
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One of the biggest reasons I like Ferguson more than Khabib is, that Khabib is the risktaker outside the cage, but Ferguson is the risktaker inside the cage. Khabib kind of plays Russian roulet with his camps. Either he’ll be in phenomenal shape or he injures himself/misses weight. He’s already failed twice trying to fight Tony and he will not get a third opportunity unless Tony is to blame for possible cancelation. So in this situation Khabib is at the end of his leash. There no more room for a bad camp. It’s do or die in training, so this time either he’ll play it safe and take the training easy without getting to his optimal performance level or he still takes changes in training and risks injury/bad weight cut and at worst losing the belt by default with pretty much zero chance to win it from Ferguson. Three scenarios for Khabib stepping into the octagon: 1) Great camp and phenomenal shape 2) Botched camp and fighting with injuries/bad cardio 3) Compromised camp in favour for safety resulting guestionable cardio. He’s never fought five rounds and he’s got all the pressure in the world to make it to the fight. I think there’s a serious chance he’ll be fighting injured.
 
zeckdo said:
There's something about the difference between Khabib and Tony's training that is making me more confident in Tony. I feel like Tony really tries to strengthen his weaknesses and prepare for worst case scenarios, while Khabib trains for the same gameplan in every fight despite his opponents strengths. When Tony fought 5 rounds against RDA, he moved to elevation, sharpened his striking defense after his last shaky performance against Lando, and ultimately outclassed and outpaced RDA, a notoriously high paced fighter. When Khabib's standup defense was exposed by Michael Johnson, he did nothing to fix it, I think his stand up actually looked worse against Barboza. When he hurt his knee leading up to his Cerrone fight at 178, he didn't take enough time off, took a fight against Barboza, then re-injured his knee and pulled out again. He just doesn't train smart. I don't think his cardio is going to be ready for 5 rounds and I don't think he has a plan B if he can't get Tony to the ground, or if his GnP is not doing damage against Tony. Tony can have a kickboxing match for 25 min, he could scramble for 25 min, or he could threaten off his back for 25 min. I'm on Ferg decision at +705, Round 4 +2050, Round 5 +2850. Also will be in attendance in Brooklyn sporting my new 10th planet hoodie. It's Tony time.
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Don't take this the wrong way, but it just makes me kind of chuckle that's how you describe Khabib, when there's half a dozen of video's out there of Tony doing dumb-ass stuff like lifting heavy weights while standing on an unstable surface of a bosu ball, getting condition-kicked in the ribs by his trainer, doing dead lifts with his back just begging for a serious back injury, etc.
 
piglord said:
i actually think akalaev/craig and dawodu/henry both looked like more extreme mismatches based on the footage available, so i have no prob with a sprinkle on bochniak here.
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I don't think this is a mismatch at all. obviously zabit is a blue chip prospect but they could have given him a total can, plenty of them on the roster, but Bochniak is fairly legit. they're increasing his strength of opponent very slowly, like you should do with potential prospects. the way Santiago pushed Zabit against the cage was intriguing. gotta watch more tape.
 
MidgardSerpent said:
Don't take this the wrong way, but it just makes me kind of chuckle that's how you describe Khabib, when there's half a dozen of video's out there of Tony doing dumb-ass stuff like lifting heavy weights while standing on an unstable surface of a bosu ball, getting condition-kicked in the ribs by his trainer, doing dead lifts with his back just begging for a serious back injury, etc.
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no offense taken brudda. the whole AKA camp worries me. Cormier's the only one who's been able to stay healthy there. Remember that video of Cain doing leg extensions as fast as he could with his S&C coach? just checked youtube for the video and it's unavailable (aka removed). I'm not discrediting Khalabeeb at all, he's a very likeable guy. I think no matter what he's gonna win the first 2 rounds of the fight, when he's fresh he's a killer, but he's never been dragged into the deep murky waters, which is where Tony Ferguson eats trains and sleeps.
 
zeckdo said:
no offense taken brudda. the whole AKA camp worries me. Cormier's the only one who's been able to stay healthy there. Remember that video of Cain doing leg extensions as fast as he could with his S&C coach? just checked youtube for the video and it's unavailable (aka removed). I'm not discrediting Khalabeeb at all, he's a very likeable guy. I think no matter what he's gonna win the first 2 rounds of the fight, when he's fresh he's a killer, but he's never been dragged into the deep murky waters, which is where Tony Ferguson eats trains and sleeps.
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Has Khabib looked bad in the 3rd round before? I think a lot of people are counting on him to gas which there really isn't a big indication that it's likely. I also question how solid Ferg will look if he is pounded on for the better part of 2-3 rounds.
 
Oblivian said:
Has Khabib looked bad in the 3rd round before? I think a lot of people are counting on him to gas which there really isn't a big indication that it's likely. I also question how solid Ferg will look if he is pounded on for the better part of 2-3 rounds.
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Bad? No. Has he slowed his output and looked noticeably tired? At times. Not "gassed", but absolutely less than fresh and not as effective as earlier in fights.

Ferg did take SOME damage vs Lee in the first round of that fight. And while not really so much in the 2nd round, he was on his back SOME of the round defending and having to work. Round 3 started and Ferg was actually talking shit to Lee before the bell rang. Telling him it was his belt and Lee wasn't gonna touch it.

Ferg wasn't even the slightest bit tired or worn down despite getting the worst of it early in that fight. In fact it was like he felt Lee fading (like he did RDA) and it just makes him step on the gas more. Lee hit another TD but it seemed like Ferg just knew it was a matter of time before he caught him. And shortly thereafter he did.
 
mkess101 said:
Bad? No. Has he slowed his output and looked noticeably tired? At times. Not "gassed", but absolutely less than fresh and not as effective as earlier in fights.

Ferg did take SOME damage vs Lee in the first round of that fight. And while not really so much in the 2nd round, he was on his back SOME of the round defending and having to work. Round 3 started and Ferg was actually talking shit to Lee before the bell rang. Telling him it was his belt and Lee wasn't gonna touch it.

Ferg wasn't even the slightest bit tired or worn down despite getting the worst of it early in that fight. In fact it was like he felt Lee fading (like he did RDA) and it just makes him step on the gas more. Lee hit another TD but it seemed like Ferg just knew it was a matter of time before he caught him. And shortly thereafter he did.
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I think this fight being 5 rounds gives Ferg more chances to catch Khabib, but I'm not counting on his chances significantly going up later in the fight.
 
Glad to see dunham still being underrated and oam still being overrated
 
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