UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[Gugabe]

My Aussie Book just put up props for Khabib-Holloway.

Method of Victory
Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO 2.60
Draw 51.00
Max Holloway by KO 7.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov by Points 4.20
Max Holloway by Points 14.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov by Submission 3.75
Max Holloway by Submission 13.00

Method & Round Combo (5 Rounds)
Khabib Nurmagomedov KO & Round 1 8.00
Max Holloway KO & Round 1 21.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov KO & Round 2 9.00
Max Holloway KO & Round 2 21.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov KO & Round 3 10.00
Max Holloway KO & Round 3 26.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov KO & Round 4 14.00
Max Holloway KO & Round 4 34.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov KO & Round 5 19.00
Max Holloway KO & Round 5 41.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov Submission & Round 1 11.00
Max Holloway Submission & Round 1 41.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov Submission & Round 2 13.00
Max Holloway Submission & Round 2 41.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov Submission & Round 3 14.00
Max Holloway Submission & Round 3 51.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov Submission & Round 4 21.00
Max Holloway Submission & Round 4 56.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov Submission & Round 5 26.00
Max Holloway Submission & Round 5 67.00

Round Betting (5 Rounds)
Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win in Round 1 5.00
Max Holloway to Win in Round 1 15.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win in Round 2 6.00
Max Holloway to Win in Round 2 15.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win in Round 3 6.50
Max Holloway to Win in Round 3 18.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win in Round 4 9.50
Max Holloway to Win in Round 4 23.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win in Round 5 12.00
Max Holloway to Win in Round 5 26.00

What Round will Fight End (5 Rounds)
Round 1 4.20
Round 2 4.50
Round 3 5.00
Round 4 7.00
Round 5 9.00

Double Chance
Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO or Submission 1.57
Draw 51.00
Max Holloway by KO or Submission 5.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov by KO or on Points 1.62
Max Holloway by KO or on Points 5.00
Khabib Nurmagomedov by Submission or on Points 2.00
Max Holloway by Submission or on Points


Hammering the sub line for 5u. O/U seems to be 3.5 based on to start R3 being 1.58 and to start R4 being 2.3~

 

[Barkus]

It's April 2nd. If it is a prank people aren't going to find it funny at this point. I think hope is lost.

 

[Barkus]

Is the winner going to get the interim interim belt? How does this work?

 

[iGnP]

How would anyone begin to know "why JJ didn't look right"? I pointed out what she did differently in the Rose fight on a technical level than she has done in literally all of her other fights. 2 minutes worth of action vs 2 hours of fight time. You want to counter that with an actual refutation? No? Didn't think so.

Well I sorta did but I'll reiterate- it's because Rose landed and hurt her. After that point, she looked slow as fuck and was probably never fully recovered prior to the second knock down, which led to the finish. JJ didn't conveniently leave her technique in the locker room, she was FINE up until Rose tagged her then it all went downhill. More so, 2 hours worth of fight time doesn't really mean a lot when the majority of the fights JJ has had in the UFC are against women who have a vastly different skill set than Rose (who seems to be improving by quite a bit from fight to fight, might I add)

I didn't dismiss JJ's chin at all either. I said that she maybe chinny. You want to lie about what I wrote more? The point still stands that strawweight isn't a weight class to rely on knockouts as a fight winner. So Rose KO'd JJ. That's obvious. Can she do it again? Absolutely But do you really think that because it happened once, that it's now a foregone conclusion it happens again, or is now the likely scenario? MMA results are at least in part a toss at a dartboard of possible outcomes. KOs at strawweight aren't a likely outcome based on the numbers, especially factoring in two skilled fighters at championship level. It's not even arguable.

When you make comments like "If you take away the last fight, which was only a few minutes of action, Joanna is a champ that defended her belt 5 times against tough competition. Unless you're Mighty Mouse or Prime Anderson Silva, fighting #1 contenders means you're going to get hit a few times. Despite this, Joanna has been finished once in her career" and "Even if we take as fact that she's more chinny now, we're still talking about the 115 lbs women's division here. Not a weightclass where betting on chins seems like a tried and true strategy" you are downplaying a major aspect of this fight. I think I should have used "downplay" instead of "dismiss", but that's ultimately what I meant. JJ has been rocked prior to the Rose fight, too, but you still choose to blanket the whole discussion KOs/knockdowns being rare in women's strawweight as if it's so cut and dry. Even Andrade called out JJ's weak chin after the Claudia II fight

My whole argument doesn't revolve around JJ's reputation at all. Please point out the part where I said that.

You literally said you are betting on JJ because you think the fight was a fluke (or an anomaly, as you call it) and you're confident in JJ being a better fighter than Rose EVEN THOUGH we have a fight between the two and Rose destroyed JJ lol.

"I'll be on Joanna bc I suspect that performance was an anomaly and the relatively short odds on a consistent performer."

And LOL at calling JJ a consistent performer right after you're like 'omg she didnt look the same in the this fight!"

You can't, because you're making shit up. You would know she's a consistent performer by actually watching her fights. To dismiss the hours of fight footage we have of her because of 2 minutes of her last performance is silly. And to accuse people unwilling of that to buy into some JJ dominance narrative is childish. I already told you I cashed on Rose in the first fight. Please tell me with your mindreader powers what is motivating me to have any bias towards JJ?

There are many reasons to like JJ. I dont think people who are betting on JJ are wrong nor do I think I am right in my analysis. I only have two units on this fight and I don't plan on adding more. But that doesn't mean I cant identify a poor argument for WHY someone would be betting on JJ in the rematch. I have literally been on the look out for people to make a good argument for betting JJ, or what JJ could do differently in the rematch, so that maybe I would consider a hedge for my own wager with JJ DEC. Your post did neither

Like I said, you are not contributing anything at all to this discussion except for being hyperbolic and accusing other posters of bias. This doesn't help anyone. Not telling anyone what to look for, what might be different, etc. Your argument is 'Rose beat JJ, we have proof. Done deal.' It's juvenile and useless commentary.

My last post (and some of this) basically answered what you wanted in this last paragraph. I also cashed on Rose in the first fight and I think there's still value on the Rose ITD line at +167. I prefer to not circle jerk in this thread when other posters have expressed my thoughts on the fight exactly as @Sham5916910 and JB (@whateverhisnewnameis) have put it.

My responses are in your quoted post in yellow

 

[iGnP]

Is the winner going to get the interim interim belt? How does this work?

I think I read the winner will be the champion

 

[cagebrain]

Is the winner going to get the interim interim belt? How does this work?

apparently they are stripping conor and tony.

 

[turbozed]

My responses are in your quoted post in yellow

Thanks for the measured response. I had to push back because you were dismissing my arguments without actually engaging them. There's way too much ego posturing and armchair psychology going on in these threads sometimes and it annoys me when I see it. Although I still disagree with you, at least now I understand what your arguments are. In the end, I come to this forum for insight so I can make money or at least not lose money betting. So I actually appreciate it when people can poke holes in my assumptions and logic.

 

[conmemay]

apparently they are stripping conor and tony.

It's fine they strip Connor but why they strip Tony also? This make no sense therefore I still believe it's april fool joke. It's a really bad joke.

 

[Barkus]

apparently they are stripping conor and tony.

Stripping Tony would be total bullshit, but it would clean up the title mess.

 

[Shoulder]

Stripping Tony would be total bullshit, but it would clean up the title mess.

Agree. After this fight they will have a LW belt who can defend the belt. I love Max but I hope Khabib wins so we don’t fuck up the divisions any more. One division per champ, defend 2-3 times per year. Let’s do this 2018.

 

[cagebrain]

It's fine they strip Connor but why they strip Tony also? This make no sense therefore I still believe it's april fool joke. It's a really bad joke.

UFC belts haven't made sense for a while now

 

[turbozed]

Here's my writeup for Caceres/Lobov:

Artem Lobov vs Alex Caceres

Striking:

Like the Dunham/OAM matchup, this is going to be another southpaw vs southpaw matchup. Although in essence this just is a mirror of orthodox/orthodox, southpaws generally are less familiar with this matchup. Obviously, you can expect Lobov and Caceres to have prepared but, all things being equal, the unfamiliarity of the stance matchup might end up favoring Caceres here.

It's no secret what Lobov's biggest weakness is as it's now a solid mma meme. Lobov has absurdly short arms. In order to strike effectively, Lobov has had to walk forward and rely on his solid chin to get him into range. With his pressure, he's hoping to get his opponents to open up and land stronger counter shots in exchanges. Sometimes he will be successful leading but it takes very good timing, which he has developed. Unfortunately, his upright march forward to his opponents also leaves him very vulnerable to takedowns, and eating really hard shots at range.

Caceres is a long rangy fighter that seems like a horrible style matchup for Lobov. However, throughout his career, Caceres hasn't really used his length very well. He sometimes will jump well into his opponents range before throwing something, and has eaten some counters for making this mistake. Luckily for him he seems to have improved on this in his recent fights. Against Knight's relentless pressure, he was able to stay out of Knight's punching range for the most part and potshot at range. This led to Knight abandoning the striking and taking the fight to the mat. Against a reasonably skilled boxer in Rolando Dy, he spent a lot of the fight in a range where he could land but Dy could not. Unfortunately for Bruce Leroy, there really was no distance where he could touch Wang Guan and be safe from taking damage. Guan not only had similar length, but superior foot speed, hand speed, and timing. He was just outmatched.

Despite getting tooled in his last fight, there's a lot of reasons to like Caceres in the striking matchup. Aside from the obvious reach advantage, which is already a steep hill Lobov always has to climb, Caceres has some nice footwork as well. Lobov was successful backing up Fili and landing shots, but Fili's footwork was very predictable, consisting of circling to one side or the other (and more often than not into Lobovs power rear hand). Caceres has more lateral movement, and it's goofy and unpredictable. This is going to be an issue for Lobov who is already very reliant on his timing, and won't be used to fighting a southpaw, as now he's going to be fighting an erratic and spazzy one on top of that.

There's a good chance Lobov won't be able to figure out Caceres' timing until well into the fight, and drop the early rounds. Or, Lobov may get a bit reckless which might lead to an easy takedown. Which gets us into:

Grappling:

As mentioned earlier, Lobov needs to fight tall in order to overcome his reach advantage. Combined with pressuring style and he's an easy target for a takedown coming forward. This was evident in the Fili fight, and you also were left with the impression that Cub could've easily taken the fight there too, if he wasn't so invested in trying to knock Lobov out.

Luckily for Lobov, Caceres doesn't seem very interested in grappling these days. The last time we saw him successfully mix in TDs was against Cole Miller 4 fights ago. I don't expect Caceres to come in looking to grapple, but it's still an option if Lobov is coming forward and Caceres is having difficulty with the striking. With his high center of gravity, Lobov is particularly vulnerable to trips (check out that sweet O Guruma that Cub lands on him late in their fight), and Caceres can mix in these with striking to score easy points or to reset the action.

In the clinch, Caceres is tenacious and will probably be busier. We saw him land some absurdly high knees on Rolando Dy with very little space to work. Because Lobov throws so hard to cover distance and still retain power, he's content to rest up in the clinch and this will be a bad idea against Caceres.

Intangibles:

The chin advantage clearly goes to Lobov. I don't know how he survived that head kick at the end of Rd1 against Filhi but he got up within seconds and didn't look shaky at all. Not sure how much longer that chin holds up but Caceres certainly isn't the one-hitter-quitter power puncher that you'd expect to punish Lobov's lack of defense. Caceres would need to land a perfect knee or a switch kick to the dome for a fight stopper. Compare this to Caceres getting clean clocked with a left hook by Guan in his last fight. That was clearly as saved by the bell as it gets. Still, Caceres eventually recovered to go the distance in that fight, so he will fight for your money.

I have avoided betting on Caceres in the past because he just doesn't have the mentality of a winner. Sometimes it feels like he's fighting an exhibition fight and just wants to show off his skills, rather than win fights. Going off memory, Caceres has stepped in to fight on short notice as well, so maybe there's another contributing factor. Luckily, Lobov isn't a winner either, as his 50/50 record clearly shows. Here the two have had time to prepare for one another.

Overall, if Caceres can play a successful outfighting game against Lobov, he will have control over all the positions in the match (distance, clinch, matwork). For Lobov, he's going to have to get Alex's timing very soon and hope to land something big. While this is entirely possible, it's probably not as likely as a relatively competitive striking matchup where Caceres lands more and stays out of enough trouble to earn a decision. As Caceres can also score points with TDs and in the clinch, I think he probably should be a bigger favorite, and was very good value at even odds.

 

[Orion]

1:40

So about 10 days ago Max was waiting a month to see another doctor to get cleared to fight, physical therapy was going good and had just gotten back on the mat, yet he's about to fight for a belt now? How would the NYSAC even clear him?

This seems like a blatant prank. No clue how this would actually occur, and if it did, Max is going to be in shit shape to say the least

 

[conmemay]

Max strikes me as a "brutal honesty" type of guy and since he hasnt posted anything about a fight with khabib, seems like he's not in on this joke. Tony and khabib, i can see them doing this with dana. But this shiet seems legit now. Suck cuz tony is a way more interesting fight.

 

[Reign Supreme]

Seems to me that Max has been waiting in the wings with the UFC thinking that either Tony or Khabib may not make it to fight night. This matchup is cursed.

 

[onC]

Max is gangster as fuck, althought Im sure he's taking this fight mainly just because he's getting PAID.

He has to be getting a seven figure bonus for saving the card, and the future EV, even if he has only a 15% chance of beating Khabib, is still millions because Max at 155 is the fight Conor wants.

 

[raketmannen]

Just woke up and saw the news.

I'm going back to sleep and hope this was all some silly nightmare when I wake up again

Holloway/Khabib isn't even that interesting. Had it been Khabib who was out and Max stepping up to face Tony I'd be about as excited as for Tony/Khabib

 

[Yotsuya]

 

[stretcharmstrong]

No, please fuck off.

 

[Yotsuya]

I hope Holloway - Khabib somehow gets canceled too. It makes no sense for divisions and seems like a bad move for Holloway on long run. Getting mauled for five rounds will dimish his image so bad. Who cares about him fighting Ortega or Conor after that, when everybody just remembers him being punched to the face on ground ad nauseam.