UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Status
Not open for further replies.
Oblivian said:
Not to mention the gameplanning and training specifically for Khabib. Max has a very tall task ahead of him. I'm sure he'll have media engagements too.
Click to expand...

Idk if I'd agree with Max being better than Tony. I thought that Tony would have plenty for Khabib on the mat. But I would say that Max is definitely more defensively conscious/aware and more aware in the cage. Which over 5 rounds gives Max more chances to win.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Max look just as big if not bigger than Khabib.

I took 1u on Max +405.
 
t6p said:
I don't disagree with any of that, but the difference for me here vs the Ferguson matchup is that Holloway has shown nothing off his back. If Khabib gets on top, Max might be in trouble unless he's made major improvements to his bottom game since the last time we saw him there.

Still, I'll be on Max too for sure. Maybe he can keep it standing or survive the first few rounds and turn it up late if Khabib slows down.
Click to expand...

then why wouldnt you just wait to live bet this in the second round like most werer going to do with ferguson

maybe a hollaway round four and five prop could have value
 
Love Rose but Joanna is the better fighter here.

I think I'm going to parlay Khabib / Joanna / Kattar & perhaps add in OAM to the end of that but I feel pretty confident in those three.
 
Orion said:


One of these dudes is missing weight
Click to expand...

Max is fighting on 6 days notice, but Khabib will be the one who misses weight, and the fight will go on, but only Max will be able to win the title. Khabib will beat Max in a boring fight, thus putting the title in limbo since Dana said he is stripping Ferguson of his interim title for the Max/Khabib fight.

After this weekend, Conor McGregor will probably still be the official lightweight champion since Dana hasn't officially stripped him yet.
 
quincy k said:
then why wouldnt you just wait to live bet this in the second round like most werer going to do with ferguson

maybe a hollaway round four and five prop could have value
Click to expand...
How much better than +385-400 is it really going to get?

No need to be greedy. That’s a great line and if khabib cant take him down the odds will go the other way.

At almost +400 it’s a must play for me, injured ankle or no camp.
 
Larthus said:
Love Rose but Joanna is the better fighter here.

I think I'm going to parlay Khabib / Joanna / Kattar & perhaps add in OAM to the end of that but I feel pretty confident in those three.
Click to expand...
Love Johanna, but rose made her tap to strikes and caused her to go into complete denial.
 
Ariel talking about how Max isn't close to 155 right now but his manager insists he will make weight. Dude is going to be drained
 
A couple hours ago I was waiting for a shot to get a lot of units in on Khabib at -350 or so but now Max is at +400 I just need to bet him. These odds are just to crazy to pass up. Max against anyone at +400 is a must bet for me and Khabib at -600 is just stupid!

1 unit for now but hope to get another unit in tonight at even higher odds.
 
Orion said:
Ariel talking about how Max isn't close to 155 right now but his manager insists he will make weight. Dude is going to be drained
Click to expand...

He is actually one of the biggest weight cutters for 145 lbs. He said he may not be able to fight 145 lbs for much longer with the new rules of checking weight ahead of time.
 
Karmello said:
A couple hours ago I was waiting for a shot to get a lot of units in on Khabib at -350 or so but now Max is at +400 I just need to bet him. These odds are just to crazy to pass up. Max against anyone at +400 is a must bet for me and Khabib at -600 is just stupid!

1 unit for now but hope to get another unit in tonight at even higher odds.
Click to expand...
You want to "bet a ton of units" on Khabib at -350, but also think that Max +400 "is a must bet"...?
 
onC said:
You want to "bet a ton of units" on Khabib at -350, but also think that Max +400 "is a must bet"...?
Click to expand...
Yes I still think Khabib is going to win and probably makes it look easy and if I would've gotten the chance at -350 I would've gone big. But now at -600 it's just not worth it and I take the chance with 1 or 2 units on Max at +400 for sure.

The risk/reward is just to good to pass up for me. Max shouldn't be +400 against anyone, that's just disrespectful and crazy.

I'm not betting the fighter that I think will win, but I need to take action when I see value.
 
Last edited:
Apparently Ortega agreed to take the fight before the UFC heard back from Max. That would have been an intriguing fight...
 
quincy k said:
then why wouldnt you just wait to live bet this in the second round like most werer going to do with ferguson

maybe a hollaway round four and five prop could have value
Click to expand...

1) Max's TDD is a wildcard here. We don't really know how good it actually is. If Khabib doesn't get him down in the first, odds are going to shorten on Max
2) Khabib is often wreckless on the feet. It's not inconceivable that Max catches him with a big shot early and puts him away. Max may be a harder hitter with the added weight
3) I see value in Max's line now, so I want to get at least something down pre-fight in case scenario 1) or 2) plays out
4) I'll be at the event and I can't guarantee live betting will be available to me because of cell service/battery
 
iGnP said:
Apparently Ortega agreed to take the fight before the UFC heard back from Max. That would have been an intriguing fight...
Click to expand...

I think Khabib would slaughter Ortega on the ground.
 
Karmello said:
Yes I still think Khabib is going to win and probably makes it look easy and if I would've gotten the chance at -350 I would've gone big. But now at -600 it's just not worth it and I take the chance with 1 or 2 units on Max at +400 for sure.

The risk/reward is just to good to pass up for me. Max shouldn't be +400 against anyone, that's just disrespectful and crazy.

I'm not betting the fighter that I think will win, but I need to take action when I see value.
Click to expand...

I think his point is that it's a little strange to see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, but then also seeing value in Max at +400. If you see a lot of value in Khabib at -350, I'd assume you cap him above -400 meaning Max wouldn't have value to you at +400.
 
ESPN: Are you able to say what he weighs right now?

Lockhart: This is going to be tied for the biggest weight cut I've ever done. The other one that was this much [not Max], we only had four days to make it. The circumstances were very different, but as far as time goes, we actually have more time on this one.
Click to expand...

Further confidence decrease in Max
 
I wish Ortega accepted this fight, wouldve made it way more interesting.

Not saying Max is gonna lose but its short notice and he's injured. Would be amazing if he pulls it off.


EDIT: He accepted, UFC went for the bigger name.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,108
Messages
55,467,881
Members
174,786
Latest member
plasterby

Share this page

Back
Top