UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[Stunna77]

Should expect Nunes cardio will be better at 145 because she doesn't have to cut as much weight. She's also become a lot better at managing her energy. Night and day from what she was like in the Zingano fight.

People always think Nunes is going to gas but she hasn't even come close to doing so in her last 4 fights. This is kind of an over played angle. We can't just give her credit for improving her cardio can we

TBF the only two fights you can really look to are Shev II and Pennington. Shev II was an absolute staring match and she dictated the pace and activity against Pennington very easily. Highly doubt she is the one dictating the pace against Cyborg. I hope money comes in on Nunes, would love to play Cyborg around -200, think she wears her down for a round 3/4 finish.

 

[guidi]

I can see a small play on Penn here, Hall is awful standing and this is the first fight in a while where BJ will not have to worry about being outmatched on the feet. I hope Hall tries his strategy from the Maynard fight BJ will have no issue going to the ground, very small chance he wins but the odds on Hall are outrageous.

 

[Jordan3399]

Should expect Nunes cardio will be better at 145 because she doesn't have to cut as much weight. She's also become a lot better at managing her energy. Night and day from what she was like in the Zingano fight.

People always think Nunes is going to gas but she hasn't even come close to doing so in her last 4 fights. This is kind of an over played angle. We can't just give her credit for improving her cardio can we

Good point on the weight cut improving her cardio. But you say last 4 fights but 2 of those ended in the first round and the other 2 she controlled the pace of and wasn't working hard at all. Raquel just backed off and let Nunes do what she wanted and Shevchenko by nature of being a counter striker let Nunes work at a rate of her choosing. I expect Nunes has improved no doubt, but I really don't think she's been tested like the Zingano or first Shevchenko fight did and I've seen so many fighters time and time again talk about how they've sorted there cardio and will be fine then gas barely different, especially against a fighter like tough pressuring fighter like Cyborg.

 

[ill800]

Hot take:

Who is more overrated? Nunes or cyborg?

 

[Jordan3399]

You are on crack if you think Cyborg is more athletic than Nunes. She is bigger and probably stronger, but no doubt Amanda is faster and more explosive

Cyborgs definitely bigger, stronger and most importantly won't slow down. Nunes is fast for sure but its not like she has great boxing technique, Shevchenko picked her apart and Cyborg is easily the better boxer after the way she countered Holm so well. I really don't think Nunes is capable of technically working behind a jab using good footwork to win rounds in a striking match and make the most of her speed advantage.

 

[burge13]

For nunes backers:

Is her only path to victory a decision?

Its wmma. Thats the method of victory for almost all of it...

 

[Jordan3399]

Hot take:

Who is more overrated? Nunes or cyborg?

Nowadays Nunes probably. She should of lost the Shevchenko fight and beat the most uninspiring challenger in recent memory in Raquel now people are talking about how she can move up and beat Cyborg.

 

[ill800]

Its wmma. Thats the method of victory for almost all of it...

Except for fighters like cyborg who have literally finished almost all of their opponents

 

[ill800]

Nowadays Nunes probably. She should of lost the Shevchenko fight and beat the most uninspiring challenger in recent memory in Raquel now people are talking about how she can move up and beat Cyborg.

Cyborg has fought a lot of cans but it’s not her fault. She is a massive female and girls just don’t want the smoke.

I thought nunes was on that list as well. Thought she was scared of cyborg but she did end up accepting the fight

Nunes cardio is fine when she’s the hammer but when she’s the nail, oh boy does she fold up.

Girls she couldn’t bully are the girls she’s lost to. She was even shook by the smaller shevchenko. She wanted no parts of engaging her in any aspect of mma after their first fight.

 

[SBJJ]

TBF the only two fights you can really look to are Shev II and Pennington. Shev II was an absolute staring match and she dictated the pace and activity against Pennington very easily. Highly doubt she is the one dictating the pace against Cyborg. I hope money comes in on Nunes, would love to play Cyborg around -200, think she wears her down for a round 3/4 finish.

I'll bet 10k on Cyborg if she hits -200. Not joking

This whole Nunes cardio is better now is crazy. It has not remotely been tested. Cyborg will test like NO other fighter has

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Cyborgs definitely bigger, stronger and most importantly won't slow down. Nunes is fast for sure but its not like she has great boxing technique, Shevchenko picked her apart and Cyborg is easily the better boxer after the way she countered Holm so well. I really don't think Nunes is capable of technically working behind a jab using good footwork to win rounds in a striking match and make the most of her speed advantage.

I agree Cyborg is the more skilled striker and better cardio. But Amanda has 1” reach, more speed, and maybe more power. It’s some interesting advantages to even the playing field

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Hot take:

Who is more overrated? Nunes or cyborg?

Cyborg. I don't even think Nunes is neccessarily overrated, as she is consistently underrated by the bookmakers and betting public alike.

McMann was a roughly -300 favorite against her, Shevchenko was a slight favorite (-120 or so) the FIRST time, Tate was a huge -300 favorite against her, Rousey was a solid -200 favorite, and Shevchenko was an even healthier favorite in the rematch (-140).

The only opponents Nunes was actually favored against were Pennington and before that, you would have to go all the way back to Baszler.

The sole line that turned out to be justified was Shevchenko for the rematch, who did indeed deserve to win a boring decision. But those odds are comical when you recall how ruthlessly Nunes smashed through McMann, Tate, and Rousey in the first round. And yet, neither the bookies nor bettors learned for the next fight.

Even reading through the posts in this topic, I'm find myself shaking my head and laughing. People are focusing on Nunes' flaws, both real and imaginary. (She has proven her cardio far more recently and relevantly than Cyborg has) Yet, no one seems bothered by a slew of flaws Cyborg has that didn't matter much against the likes of Evinger/Kunitskaya/Lansberg, but will be very relevant against Nunes.

 

[SBJJ]

This cardio argument really is nuts

Ngannou had shit cardio against Stipe. But he seemed to miraculously fix it against Lewis the very next fight. I mean he looked fine after 3 rounds.

See the error in this thinking?

Cyborg will pressure Nunes in a way she has never been pressured. If she does not stop Cyborg early I think she's in for a nightmare

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

This cardio argument really is nuts

Ngannou had shit cardio against Stipe. But he seemed to miraculously fix it against Lewis the very next fight. I mean he looked fine after 3 rounds.

See the error in this thinking?

Cyborg will pressure Nunes in a way she has never been pressured. If she does not stop Cyborg early I think she's in for a nightmare

Your comparison is silly and an attempt to avoid serious discussion.

Nunes showed her cardio had improved, which last looked questionable almost 3 years ago, by clearly beating Valentina Shevchenko in the 5th round of their rematch (and increasing her activity from the earlier rounds in a manner Valentina couldn't match) and also by knocking out Pennington in the 5th round of theirs.

How is this even remotely comparable to N'Gannou, who did nothing in the 3rd against Lewis?

 

[SBJJ]

Your comparison is silly and an attempt to avoid serious discussion.

Nunes showed her cardio had improved, which last looked questionable almost 3 years ago, by clearly beating Valentina Shevchenko in the 5th round of their rematch (and increasing her activity from the earlier rounds in a manner Valentina couldn't match) and also by knocking out Pennington in the 5th round of theirs.

How is this even remotely comparable to N'Gannou, who did nothing in the 3rd against Lewis?

It's comparable because being in control of a low volume contest will not sap your energy the same way as a fight against someone actually fighting you would

To act as if her last 4 fights prove she has fixed her stamina issues in a way that she could deal with the non stop pressure of a larger stronger fighter is reaching

Time for some serious discussion. Nunes has shown that grappling and clinching can really sap her energy. What happens when she has to deal with the bigger stronger fighter here.

Nunes is a good dog. I'm not arguing her price. I'm just saying let's not be delusional in how she can win.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Nunes landed 124 strikes against Pennington and 86 against Shev in the rematch. Those aren’t low volume contests. She just wasn’t putting everything into her strikes seeking a fast finish.

No doubt that Cyborg has the better cardio, but there’s no way that it’s a significant enough advantage to lay -2xx juice when Amanda is going to be likely better in round 1 and is a serious threat to finish early. It’s just not THAT big a flaw at this stage, esp with the lower weight cut at 145

 

[raketmannen]

The oddsmakers’ job when setting a line isn’t to predict the winner, it’s to predict who people will bet on. They anticipate the majority of bettors to favour Jones here, and I’m sure they are correct as far as that goes. That definitely doesn’t mean that the line isn’t off, but I also don’t believe that Jones needs “magic” to put on a winning performance here. I give Gus a chance to win but not enough for me to take the shot on him yet. I personally think the line is close to being correct. If Jones money comes in and I can get Gus at +300 I’d play him though.

The oddsmaker is only setting the opening line, Jones -190 and Gus +150. Everything after that is determined by the money coming in from everyone betting on it

 

[SBJJ]

Nunes landed 124 strikes against Pennington and 86 against Shev in the rematch. Those aren’t low volume contests. She just wasn’t putting everything into her strikes seeking a fast finish.

No doubt that Cyborg has the better cardio, but there’s no way that it’s a significant enough advantage to lay -2xx juice when Amanda is going to be likely better in round 1 and is a serious threat to finish early. It’s just not THAT big a flaw at this stage, esp with the lower weight cut at 145

And as I said her window is likely early. Those 2 fights stats are not great though. Especially considering those kicks she employed in the vs rematch. There just was no fighting. Sparring and fighting are 2 different things.

Like someone said earlier. Nunes does not do well when she's the nail. If she can't get Cyborg out early I'm fairly confident she becomes the nail

Take a fighter like Thiago Tavares. He looks like a world champ when in control. But if he's not in control his cardio goes to shit.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

It's comparable because being in control of a low volume contest will not sap your energy the same way as a fight against someone actually fighting you would

Nunes-Pennington was a "low volume contest"?! Have you even watched the fight?

As for the Shevchenko rematch, the "low volume" sure seemed to sap the much smaller Shevchenko's energy reserves, as Nunes' cardio was superior to her's in the 5th round. That's a big difference from the 3rd round of their first fight, where Nunes was the one who was exhausted.

To act as if her last 4 fights prove she has fixed her stamina issues in a way that she could deal with the non stop pressure of a larger stronger fighter is reaching

This is so absurd. You're ignoring the evidence of her last two fights within the past year to fixate on what happened 5 fights and 3 years ago?

Time for some serious discussion. Nunes has shown that grappling and clinching can really sap her energy. What happens when she has to deal with the bigger stronger fighter here.

When has she "shown" this? All the way back against Zingano?!

Nevermind the fact that Cyborg almost certainly won't grapple and isn't particularly good at it, looking at her fights in the UFC.

Nunes is a good dog. I'm not arguing her price.

You are. You stated that you would put $10k down on Cyborg at -200, which is absolutely insane.

I do find it funny that @ill800 agrees with you, considering he thought it was a bad idea for me to bet a mere 12 units on Tito versus Chuck last month. Yet, he thinks Cyborg for that same price against a fighter who matches or surpasses her in almost every technical aspect of striking and grappling, is faster, hits about as hard, and is just a little smaller and weaker is a good bet for $10k?

I guess we can thank Cyborg's mystique and Nunes being perpetually underrated for the juicy line.

 

[SBJJ]

Another thing to consider. It's likely Nunes will not be able to replicate her performance here that she did in the VS rematch. She will need to fight off cyborg. She will need to throw with all out power to keep cyborg off. Can she get Cyborg out of there early? How long can she keep throwing power shots before she tires?