UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[Soccer Steve]

Also took Ryan Hall even at -380 over BJ Penn to win 2u. Hall should probably be -800 here. BJ is D-O-N-E.

Are you somewhat concerned that Hall hasn't fought in two years and that he was so square in his last fight against a frail, basically zombie Maynard? Instead of raising his arms in the air in confusion, if Gray just jumps on top of Hall and lays heavy he might steal rounds and win that fight. Hall turns and runs away multiple times as I'm sure you recall.

BJ-Yair was bizarre match-making from the UFC. BJ-Siver was much better; two old farts having at each other. BJ did show he still has a chin in there somewhere. Siver threw and landed some decent stuff on him. BJ kinda, almost KO'd Siver.

I'm more concerned that BJ gasses and totally gives it away than Hall actually beating him. Hall is going to prance around throwing kicks, doing the bare minimum. If BJ can get in his guard for minutes at a time and look somewhat reasonable then the value is there.

BJ is such just-a-warm-body at this point but -380, and counting, is so rich for a lame duck like Hall.

Bias: 0.5u bet on BJ.

 

[kevinramsdell]

Bevon Lewis got subbed in rd 1 against Omar Johnson and KOed in :30 by Hector Thomas. This was late 2011 and mid 2013 though, amatuer fights. I'm not impressed by Bevons power and Hall looked very determined against Costa. I can def see Hall getting the KO here and if he fights like he fought Costa he may even be able to win a DEC.

They should have gave Bevon a guy like Brad Scott, I think Hall is prob too much too soon.

"Determined" against Costa? All Hall was doing was running away throwing a jab at Costa. Dude hardly puts up much of an effort anymore, he got lucky against Jotko and should be on a 5-fight skid right now. Dude legit quit against Brunson, Moose, and Costa. I'm not saying he can't beat Lewis because the kid is untested, whereas Hall has fought top 10 opponents since 2015. But, I'm glad they are giving him a bit of a fall back opponent. He wins this fight or he's probably off to Bellator.

 

[Tyrrax]

Are you somewhat concerned that Hall hasn't fought in a year (only 3 times in the last 3 actually) and that he was so square in his last fight against a frail, basically zombie Maynard? Instead of raising his arms in the air in confusion, if Gray just jumps on top of Hall and lays heavy he might steal rounds and win that fight. Hall turns and runs away multiple times as I'm sure you recall.

You're underestimating Hall, Maynard wasn't. (check out Ed Ruth vs Neiman Gracie, MUCH better wrestler vs probably worse BJJ than maynard vs hall)
Didn't engage him on the ground because Hall would've submitted him easily if he had, just like he'll submit the pathetic shadow of the prodigy if he tries to play in the guard of a currently top tier elite ground wizard.

That's probably what'll happen since BJ won't be as smart/scared as Maynard was, probably thinks he has a chance on the ground since he used to be legit there, can't box since Ryan won't let him get close, doesn't know how to kick..

 

[DevilsPt2]

"Determined" against Costa? All Hall was doing was running away throwing a jab at Costa. Dude hardly puts up much of an effort anymore, he got lucky against Jotko and should be on a 5-fight skid right now. Dude legit quit against Brunson, Moose, and Costa. I'm not saying he can't beat Lewis because the kid is untested, whereas Hall has fought top 10 opponents since 2015. But, I'm glad they are giving him a bit of a fall back opponent. He wins this fight or he's probably off to Bellator.

Hall threw 80 strikes in rd 1 against Costa. Compare that to 15 against Jotko, 25 against Mousasi, 20 against Whittaker and 78 in all 3 rounds against Natal. Hall and Costa only got halfway through rd 2 and he already threw 45.

I dont know if he quit against Brunson, it kinda looked like he got knocked out by a guy who wins almost all his fights by knocking people out. I'm prett sure if Lewis fought Costa, Mousasi, Brunson and Whittaker it would look so much worse you'd think Lewis got finished 8 times in 4 fights.

 

[null]

Are you somewhat concerned that Hall hasn't fought in two years and that he was so square in his last fight against a frail, basically zombie Maynard? Instead of raising his arms in the air in confusion, if Gray just jumps on top of Hall and lays heavy he might steal rounds and win that fight. Hall turns and runs away multiple times as I'm sure you recall.

BJ-Yair was bizarre match-making from the UFC. BJ-Siver was much better; two old farts having at each other. BJ did show he still has a chin in there somewhere. Siver threw and landed some decent stuff on him. BJ kinda, almost KO'd Siver.

I'm more concerned that BJ gasses and totally gives it away than Hall actually beating him. Hall is going to prance around throwing kicks, doing the bare minimum. If BJ can get in his guard for minutes at a time and look somewhat reasonable then the value is there.

BJ is such just-a-warm-body at this point but -380, and counting, is so rich for a lame duck like Hall.

Bias: 0.5u bet on BJ.

I'm afraid that BJ is going to end up looking foolish in this fight, he is so degraded. He's likely going to get clowned on the feet or submitted on the ground if it goes there. I am holding myself back from betting Ryan Hall again at -440.

 

[kevinramsdell]

Hall threw 80 strikes in rd 1 against Costa. Compare that to 15 against Jotko, 25 against Mousasi, 20 against Whittaker and 78 in all 3 rounds against Natal. Hall and Costa only got halfway through rd 2 and he already threw 45.

I dont know if he quit against Brunson, it kinda looked like he got knocked out by a guy who wins almost all his fights by knocking people out. I'm prett sure if Lewis fought Costa, Mousasi, Brunson and Whittaker it would look so much worse you'd think Lewis got finished 8 times in 4 fights.

Hall had no choice but to constantly throw against Costa that's the strategy you kind of have to employ against him. Costa doesn't stop walking you down lol. But let's not make this about the goat Costa! I'll move on, Hall has all the tools but I question his heart and his ability to really wanna fight when he has been open about that in the past. He's been open since after the 2nd moose fight about how his head hasn't been in the game like it should be. at a -125 I think he could be a good play because the odds are in his favor, dude has a substantial amount of elite level MMA experience. When I look at Lewis opponents he beat Urbina on DWCTS who's combined opponent record was 3-8 and Alton Cunningham who's combined opponent record was 13-13. I agree Hall should take this, but I question his mental game and feel he may be a liability. But -125 are good odds for a play.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm afraid that BJ is going to end up looking foolish in this fight, he is so degraded. He's likely going to get clowned on the feet or submitted on the ground if it goes there. I am holding myself back from betting Ryan Hall again at -440.

Ah dammit, I know I'm fishing here. Penn brought me into this sport as a fan so I have a soft spot for him.

 

[Dianabol]

Bevon Lewis got subbed in rd 1 against Omar Johnson and KOed in :30 by Hector Thomas. This was late 2011 and mid 2013 though, amatuer fights. I'm not impressed by Bevons power and Hall looked very determined against Costa. I can def see Hall getting the KO here and if he fights like he fought Costa he may even be able to win a DEC.

They should have gave Bevon a guy like Brad Scott, I think Hall is prob too much too soon.

Yeah Hall is a tough debut for someone so inexperienced but I'm super impressed with Lewis and I think the UFC must be too. People at Jackson's say this guy is legit. Could be their best prospect in a long long time

 

[Kyle Stephens]

but I question his mental game and feel he may be a liability.

He kinda turned a corner with that Jotko win. I thought he looked much more composed and determined v The Eraser. I know he had to fight there, but he could've looked for the door any time he wanted. The new Vitor Belfort is too much for a lot of guys at 185.

People at Jackson's say this guy is legit.

The only legit thing now from Jackson's is Jon Jones. (when I am saying legit I mean more than good, a world class fighter) They proved time and time again that they suck. Last few years this gym's results are a disaster. TriStar is going their way too, btw. If I didn't saw so many times Uriah fighting at the level of his opponents I would say this kid would get embarassed. I have last hope for Uriah, after I watched his last two fights, some glipses of hope for his mental game I saw.

 

[Jordan3399]

Anyone else think Chad Mendes probably beats up Volkanovski badly? Way better striker, athlete and wrestler imo.

 

[starfish01]

Anyone else think Chad Mendes probably beats up Volkanovski badly? Way better striker, athlete and wrestler imo.

Just off the top of my head and no tape, I'm thinking Mendes is Volkanovski's absolute worst matchup in the division based on style. I believe Volkanovski is a top 10 level talent but this toughest fight he could've taken to try and break into the top 10 imo.

 

[Jordan3399]

Just off the top of my head and no tape, I'm thinking Mendes is Volkanovski's absolute worst matchup in the division based on style. I believe Volkanovski is a top 10 level talent but this toughest fight he could've taken to try and break into the top 10 imo.

Pretty much my thoughts. Chad is better everywhere he just has a questionable chin. Equally though we haven't seen Volkanovski's tested and Chad hits hard af. I thought Chad was gonna be -200 at least but the odds look like they'll just get better on him.

 

[Gugabe]

Pretty much my thoughts. Chad is better everywhere he just has a questionable chin. Equally though we haven't seen Volkanovski's tested and Chad hits hard af. I thought Chad was gonna be -200 at least but the odds look like they'll just get better on him.

Yeah. Mendes is essentially the better version of Volkanovski everywhere aside from possibly chin (Edgar KO is the only 'bad' KO loss on Mendes' record IMO, Aldo knee kills anybody and Conor was a standing TKO whilst clearly tired)

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I have last hope for Uriah, after I watched his last two fights, some glipses of hope for his mental game I saw.

Yeah, about that... I watched his last two fights again. He is still throwing single techniques although maybe not so mentally fragile as before. I don't like this at all. Yeah, he gathered himself after that bad 1st round (v Jotko) and started to stand his ground a little more. But was it because of him, or more because Jotko was spent after beating the shit out of him for nearly the whole round before? More to that - he won by catching Jotko with a single punch. It's not that much different to his other KO wins. He spends 99% of the time doing shit (and getting beaten or just outpointed) and going for low percentage techniques and once in a while he catches you with something just because he is that fast.

V Paulo there was an upgrade - he spammed fast and hard jabs. OK, it's better than just going back. At least now he is putting something in the face of the opponent to not allow him to just walk him down. But the core is still there - single techniques. How can I trust him with this style? He can lose to anybody fighting like that. There is no real urgency there is no looking for the win, he is in a survival mode all the time. If that kid Bevon have a consistent game and he is relentless with it (don't care what game, just something) - he is gonna win. And even if he can't put Hall in real danger it's even better for him - Hall doesn't fight if he thinks he is safe. You can outpoint him without much trouble. Somewhere I heard even that he is from these type of guys who doesn't like to train. When I hear that for a fighter it's a big red sign.

That is my contrubution to the thread as far this fight is concerned.

 

[TheKingOwl]

I'm still going to watch Zingano's last two fights again, but I like it at -125. I think she can do the same game Holm did against Megan Anderson.

 

[raketmannen]

Earlier today I bet BJ for 1u. My unit size is fractional to yours yet even at my modest amount I don't understand why I did it and I absolutely feel like I've wasted a unit entirely. And yet...ride or die...

edit: Mis-remembered: I bet 0.5u on BJ. Still full of regret.

JimGunns unit size is very misleading though since he's only using 1u as 0.15%~ of his BR instead of 1%, so 3u bet for him is a 0.5u~ bet for most of us. Could be good to know for anyone wanting to tail him

 

[raketmannen]

I'm still going to watch Zingano's last two fights again, but I like it at -125. I think she can do the same game Holm did against Megan Anderson.

Cat should be able to take her down easily, if fucking Holm is able to doubleleg 5 months of wrestling training won't be nearly enough to stop Cats takedowns.
Only thing I'm worried about is Cat diving straight into a knee, Megans striking looked really fast and sharp in the Holm fight, improved a lot from her invicta fights

 

[Jordan3399]

Quite like Condit in the fight after tape. Seems he has a BJJ and a big striking advantage. Chiesa will outwrestle him but everyone of Condits opponents had that ability too so its not like it'll be a shock to him and he's dealt with it fine before. Condit's not on a great run but Chiesa hasn't looked decent since his comeback sub over Dariush 2 and half years ago.

 

[raketmannen]

Quite like Condit in the fight after tape. Seems he has a BJJ and a big striking advantage. Chiesa will outwrestle him but everyone of Condits opponents had that ability too so its not like it'll be a shock to him and he's dealt with it fine before. Condit's not on a great run but Chiesa hasn't looked decent since his comeback sub over Dariush 2 and half years ago.

Don't know how you can say that he dealt fine with wrestling, he got 2 wins since his Diaz fight in 2012 and 7 losses in between, and most of those losses are from at least partially being outwrestled

 

[Oblivian]

Pulled the trigger on Mendes at -150.