UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

usernamee said:
Pretty sure you're wrong. Mueller actually dropped Wu and followed to the ground (it may actually not have been a clean drop and more a slip but nontheless) and then got subbed.

You may be confused because Botelho fought another asian who she hurt to the body with a kick and then seconds later stopped.
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LiquidNuke said:
I just watched it and didn't see any kick. Like usernamee says, Mueller actually dumps Wu.
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<{ByeHomer}>
 
usernamee said:
Currently watching tape for this. No, I don't think she can get it down ITD. DEC here no matter who wins imo.
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Ill disagree here, Dobson hurt Mueller bad with a body shot and we have already seen Botehlo fold girls with her body kick. I actually think Botehlo does get it done inside the distance. Mueller is very hittable and open defensively and Botehlo throws everything with power. Hurts her to the body and pounces for a TKO imo.
 
Is anyone in here on Souk? Would love to hear your opinion. That +400 is staring me in the face...
 
Soccer Steve said:
Is anyone in here on Souk? Would love to hear your opinion. That +400 is staring me in the face...
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I have no bets on this fight, but Montel can be low volume and souk is the most technical striker he has faced thus far. I could see a scenario where Souk wins a close dec, but Montel's physical advantages, length, and wrestling should allow him to win a clear dec. Line is definitely wide at this point though..
 
Soccer Steve said:
Is anyone in here on Souk? Would love to hear your opinion. That +400 is staring me in the face...
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Souk's the same archetype of striker as Dwight Grant, but doesn't have his power. Make of that what you will.
 
APras1428 said:
Anyone confident in any picks? Honestly having trouble finding value in this card. Took a decent amount on poirier just cause he has a punchers chance in a likely 3-5 round fight with max. He could clip him, but even then I think Max's distance control is good enough to save him in most scenarios. Hoping Dustin's confidence is validated by some specific Max tendencies that he thinks can be exploited.
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ApplesVild said:
Will Dustin actually be the best wrestler Holloway has faced?

Lamas is good but obviously smaller than Dustin. Maybe Bermudez? Who Holloway lost to...

Who has the advantage in the clinch?

As good as Dustin has looked with his striking I still think Holloway is a level above him, he will have a higher out put also and I believe Dustin can wilt under pressure, I still feel he was about to lose against Eddie the first time and found a way out, yeah the knees where illegal but Dustin looked done before that.
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You can completely discount the Bermudez fight, as that is not the same Holloway.
I have bet Holloway in his last 4 fights and especially loved getting him at evens or relatively close (if memory serves me correct) v. Pettis, Aldo 1 and Ortega. Here, finally, we are not so lucky to get great odds on him.
That said, I think Holloway's control of distance is tremendous, his varied striking is spectacular and definitely better than Poirier imo. Poirier is a tough out, and -225 is a lot to lay, but I think Holloway, at this point, may be the best pound for pound fighter in the division. I think his chin will be that much better at 155, and I'll lay 2.25 units to win a unit on this fight.
 
Rasdun said:
You can completely discount the Bermudez fight, as that is not the same Holloway.
I have bet Holloway in his last 4 fights and especially loved getting him at evens or relatively close (if memory serves me correct) v. Pettis, Aldo 1 and Ortega. Here, finally, we are not so lucky to get great odds on him.
That said, I think Holloway's control of distance is tremendous, his varied striking is spectacular and definitely better than Poirier imo. Poirier is a tough out, and -225 is a lot to lay, but I think Holloway, at this point, may be the best pound for pound fighter in the division. I think his chin will be that much better at 155, and I'll lay 2.25 units to win a unit on this fight.
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Wouldn't be as worried about his chin as his neck. I got Dustin by sub here.
 
Dustin's wrestling is potatoes and beans. Pretty basic. His overall grappling is good, maybe even great, but his TD isnt anything to write home about. Max's switching and distance control, plus his bodywork will nullify it.

This is gonna be on the feet, and Max is gonna dictate the pace. Dustin always seems to get tired, even though he has a high output, I just dont see him keeping up with Max's pace.

Remember Max is going up, so I think he'll hit harder, and have just as good a footwork.I think Dustin will win a round or 2, but Max will finish late.

I even think Max is the bigger fighter, even though he fights a lighter weightclass. This is a case of a great fighter fighting a good fighter. I choose the great fighter every time.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Is anyone in here on Souk? Would love to hear your opinion. That +400 is staring me in the face...
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Yeah he seems to have pretty decent standup, but atrocious fight IQ.

He had Sean Omalley check mate'd and he threw it away. He's mediocre, and if youre mediocre with terrible fight IQ, youre bound to be cut. Another loss and he's done, I just wouldnt risk it with his IQ, the pressure etc.
 
Holloway sub +945
DP sub +755
Muhammed sub +420

Crazy lines if you ask me for these reasons:

1. Millenders ground game is{<jordan}(although he has said he immediately started training that after the Zaleski loss but hard to make significant strides in a month)

2. DP has a great positional grappling and is a legit sub threat (although I believe Maxs footwork and clinch game will make it very very hard for DP to get the ball rolling there)

3. I have said this many times I'm sure but, Max's guillotine is
giphy.gif
should DP take a sloppy shot in open space or leave his neck exposed in the clinch I think Max could take advantage.
 
Montel‘s fight not going the distance is at 1.80 and that’s decent value imo.

Even if you believe in a Montel finish like myself, the odds are not much better (2.10 ITD), so you can be safe if Soccermom lands a hail mary knockout.
 
Soccer Steve said:
Is anyone in here on Souk? Would love to hear your opinion. That +400 is staring me in the face...
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Dont bet him, there are better dogs with a REAL chance to win.(Khalil,Gastelum,Dustin)
This guy will lose, dont waste your money.
Remember ! numbers dont fight in the octagon, bet the fighter who will win.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Dont bet him, there are better dogs with a REAL chance to win.(Khalil,Gastelum,Dustin)
This guy will lose, dont waste your money.
Remember ! numbers dont fight in the octagon, bet the fighter who will win.
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Didn't you say that about Diego YES! Sanchez?
 
piglord said:
world class quote
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It's not that clever, as most times one can't pick who will win, when both fighters have a real chance whether it be 80/20, 70/30. 60/40, 50/50 etc and your estimation of those chances of victory combined with the odds is the key to finding the value.
 
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