UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier II Official Bets

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Will likely add more bets if the night is going well, as I've committed a lot of my bankroll already;

3u on Davis at -155
3u on Botelho at -155
1u on Millender at +120
4u on Griffin at +105
3u on not Adesanya within distance at -153 (other side has improved so much I might guarantee myself a profit of +1u here)

Didn't hedge on the Gastelum-Adesanya fight, and while I was almost burned in the final 50 seconds, it worked out. Added an additional 0.3u on Souk at +475 which didn't cash, but also won back that same 0.3u thanks to a live-bet on Poirier after round 2 at -135.

Won 9.3 units for the night. Best card of the year for me and a much needed turn-around after a string of bad UFCs. (Every Bellator card has been great for me this year, though)

Part of it was realizing how difficult it is to predict whether a fight goes to decision or not and mostly staying away from props.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Holloway ML - 5.6u for 4.24u*
Holloway Round 4 - 0.2u for 1.65u
Holloway Round 5 - 0.2u for 2.6u
Over 2.5 Rounds - 2u for 1.33u

Adesanya ML - 7u for 4.52u*
Adesanya Decision - 1u for 2.25u
Gastelum O0.5 TD - $15.04 for $30.08

Anders ML - 4u for 3.58u*
Rountree Round 1 - 0.4u for 2u
Rountree Round 2 - 0.2u for 1.6u

Jouban ML - 2.5u for 2.09u
Jouban NSC - 1u for 1.78u
Grant NSC - 4u for 1.7u

Krylov ML - 1u for 0.88u
OSP Submission - 0.25u for 0.56u
OSP KO - 0.25u for 1.46u

Reis ML - 2.5u for 3.65u
Reis Submission - 0.25u for 3.75u

Frevola Decision - 0.5u for 2.55u
Frevola Round 3 - 0.25u for 3u

Imadaev ML - 2.5u for 2.37u

Salmon ML - 1u for 0.69u

Millender ML - 3u for 3.69u
Millender NSC - 2u for 1.67u
Millender KO - 0.25u for 0.92u
Draw - $5 for $325

Soukhamthath ML - 0.5u for 2.08u

Botelho ML - 2u for 1.59u*
Botelho KO - 0.25u for 0.6u

Davis ML - 3u for 1.93u
Davis Sub - 0.2u for 1.29u
Costa KO - 0.25u for 0.69u

Tampa Bay Lightning + Turner-Frevola DNGTD + Holloway-Poirier O1.5 - 1u for 1.23u

Not gonna bother counting that pile of dogshit up there. Chased very heavily on Iz and small on DP mid-fight to salvage the night for a 0.70u loss. Picked 4 of 13 winners. Just terrible. Millender. Anders. Jouban. Reis. Planned on raising the unit size for next event but I'm gonna rethink that.

Hope everyone did ok.

 

[Doc R]

1u Gastelum +150
1u Porier +225

hard to stay away from from props and other fights, but I track other picks and I would have only been 7-6 on the night and would have been down.

Instead I keep it to 2 units on fights I have a strong feeling on and come out ahead, albeit a measly 1.25 units.

My mantra is to stay true to what I feel I know. Because I suck ass if I have to pick every fight.

 

[t6p]

1u Poirier +215 +2.15u
0.2u Poirier SUB +910 -0.2u

1u Adesanya DEC +325 +3.25u
0.4u Adesanya ITD +254 -0.4u
0.05u Adesanya RD4 +1400 -0.05u
0.05u Adesanya RD5 +1850 -0.05u

0.05u Anders RD3 +1100 -0.05u

1u Krylov-OSP FDGTD +104 (closes parlay) +1.04u

0.75u Reis +135 -0.75u
0.5u Reis NSC +374 -0.5u
0.2u Reis SUB +1385 -0.2u
0.1u Reis RD3 +3075 -0.1u

0.1u Reis/OSP/Anders/Adesanya/Poirier +2813 -0.1u

NET: +4.04

I wasn't expecting much from this card, so obviously very happy with the result. Also, the fourth straight winning card for me, for a total of around 17u. Hoping to keep the slow and steady pace going moving forward.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Here is what I’m on so far:

Davis -150 1.5u
Jouban -115 1.3u
Muhammad -125 1.3u
Krylov +115 1.1u
Pantoja -150 2u
Anders -165 1.7u
Adesanya -165 2.2u
Poirier +225 1.5u

Good luck fellas!

Ended up +7.2u for the night. Lost $ on each of the last two cards so it feels good. Almost switched sides on the ME but thankfully I didn’t because I had Poirier at such a good price.

 

[Larthus]

4u Adesanya -179
*EDIT* 3u Max Griffin +101
2u OSP +100
2u Muhammad -135
1u OSP v Krylov O1.5 +103
1u Turner v Frevola O1.5 +105
1u Botelho -169
1u Boston Salmon -135

*added in plays on Max after realizing he’s at + odds now & reviewing tape / listening to breakdowns of Zelim. Likely adding units on Reis as well.

Up 13u. Added 4u on Dustin pre-fight but lost 1u on Reis pre-fight as well.

Worst bet of the night was OSP by far

This was actually my most disciplined night betting since I started. I used to be the type to gain big then risk half my BR in one fight and then slice my winnings in half.

I definitely could’ve made out with more tonight, but I suppose discipline is about steady ROI as opposed to massive one-off victories

 

[Jordan3399]

13.7u all in. Great night and Congrats all.

I need sleep haha

 

[nebulousned]

i have $20 on kelvin to win $49
$10 on roundtree to win $26
$30 on max to win $42.90

a lot of much better bettors here are doing things very differently than me. i'll probably lose most of it ha.

Down $34.

In hindsight i shouldn't have bet on Max, i was surprised at how weak he looked in weigh ins but thought 'the lighter champ in champ v champ has always won'.

i think he's like Conor, only a killer in featherweight because he was bigger. he's not big enough to hang with the lightweights.

oh well.

 

[Austisthunder]

3U Israel Adesanye -180
4 U Brandon Davis -170
3 U Eric Andre -170
1 U Montel Jackson -400
1 U OSP -110
2 U OSP via SUB +250

1/2 U Gastelem KO +325
1/2 U Max KO +130
1/2 U Poirier ITD +255

After all the madness i added on and what not its close to whats listed here
Around down 1 U so meh i suppose

Anders fight cost me over a 10U swing via parlay so that stings

This would be the 6th event that has one leg breaking a parlay this year
Feels bad

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Not gonna bother counting that pile of dogshit up there. Chased very heavily on Iz and small on DP mid-fight to salvage the night for a 0.70u loss. Picked 4 of 13 winners. Just terrible. Millender. Anders. Jouban. Reis. Planned on raising the unit size for next event but I'm gonna rethink that.

Hope everyone did ok.

Adding your bets up, that's -8 units, not 0.7.

 

[chemmy]

Adesanya Risk 3.4 units to win 2 units
Anders Risk 2.43 units to win 1.5 units
Belal Risk 1.31 units to win 1 unit
Davis Risk 3.02 units to win 2 units
Bothelo Risk 1.52 units to win 1 unit
Griffin Risk 1 unit to win 1.01 units

+4.58 units... solid night with my only regret being my play on Anders. Khalil surprised me a bit, but in hindsight it was just a bad play at that price.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Adding your bets up, that's -8 units, not 0.7.

Oh shit! Someone is checking that math you guys.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

K. Gastelum +180 3u
E. Anders -155 2u
W. Reis +165 1u
C. Millender +115 1u
M. Holloway -190 3.5u
Holloway SUB +950 .1u
OSP +100 2u
OSP SUB +290 .2u

Clean sweep! -12.4u

 

[null]

What a card! Despite going in a hole on the early prelims with big bets on Curtis Millender, the tv prelims with Max Griffin pulling out the decision against Zelim Imadaev made up for it. And then my big switch from Eryk Anders to Khalil Rountree after the weigh-ins paid off big time. Plus those awesome co-main and main events with Israel Adesanya and Dustin Poirier winning interim belts on the PPV made it a very profitable night with 18.31 units profit.

UFC 236 Results Risk $8,459.82

Max Holloway (-190) vs Dustin Poirier $190.00 for $100.00= -$190.00
Max Holloway/Dustin Poirier Over 2½ (-142) $142.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Max Holloway/Dustin Poirier Over 2½ (-148) $148.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Max Holloway wins in round 4 (+1200) $20.00 for $240.00= -$20.00
Max Holloway wins in round 5 (+2000) $20.00 for $400.00= -$20.00
Max Holloway wins by 5 round decision (+295) $35.00 for $103.25= -$35.00
Live In-Play Dustin Poirier (-109) vs Max Holloway $217.39 for $200.00= $200.00
Live In-Play Dustin Poirier (-150) vs Max Holloway $150.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Israel Adesanya (-159) vs Kelvin Gastelum $795.00 for $500.00= $500.00
Israel Adesanya/Kelvin Gastelum Over 3½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Israel Adesanya wins by 5 round decision (+159) $75.00 for $119.25= $119.25

Khalil Rountree (+170) vs Eryk Anders $250.00 for $425.00= $425.00
Khalil Rountree (+167) vs Eryk Anders $100.00 for $167.00= $167.00
Khalil Rountree (+165) vs Eryk Anders $600.00 for $990.00= $990.00
Khalil Rountree wins by TKO/KO (+253) $45.00 for $113.85= -$45.00
Eryk Anders (-159) vs Khalil Rountree $318.00 for $200.00= -$318.00
Eryk Anders (-160) vs Khalil Rountree $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
Eryk Anders (-161) vs Khalil Rountree $322.58 for $200.00= -$322.58
Khalil Rountree/Eryk Anders Over 1½ (-115) $115.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Khalil Rountree wins by 3 round decision (+875) $75.00 for $656.25= $656.25
Khalil Rountree/Eryk Anders goes 3 round distance (+170) $75.00 for $127.50= $127.50

Alan Jouban (+112) vs Dwight Grant $200.00 for $224.00= -$200.00
Dwight Grant wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+200) $40.00 for $80.00= -$40.00
Dwight Grant wins in round 1 (+400) $25.00 for $100.00= -$25.00
Dwight Grant wins in round 2 (+700) $15.00 for $105.00= -$15.00
Alan Jouban wins by 3 round decision (+290) $75.00 for $217.50= -$75.00

Ovince St. Preux (+100) vs Nikita Krylov $200.00 for $200.00= -$200.00
Ovince St. Preux wins by submission (+225) $45.00 for $101.25= -$45.00
Ovince St. Preux/Nikita Krylov Under 1½ (-105) $105.00 for $100.00= -$105.00
Ovince St. Preux/Nikita Krylov won’t start round 3 (-169) $169.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Jalin Turner (-125) vs Matt Frevola $250.00 for $200.00= -$250.00
Jailin Turner wins by TKO/KO (+156) $75.00 for $117.00= -$75.00
Matt Frevola wins by TKO/KO (+550) $40.00 for $220.00= -$40.00

Wilson Reis (+180) vs Alexandre Pantoja $200.00 for $360.00= -$200.00
Wilson Reis wins by submission (+1780) $50.00 for $890.00= -$50.00

Max Griffin (+107) vs Zelim Imadaev $500.00 for $535.00= $535.00
Zelim Imadaev wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= -$50.00
Zelim Imadaev wins in round 1 (+480) $30.00 for $144.00= -$30.00
Zelim Imadaev wins in round 2 (+800) $30.00 for $240.00= -$30.00
Max Griffin wins in round 3 (+1300) $20.00 for $260.00= -$20.00
Max Griffin wins by decision (+250) $40.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Boston Salmon (-125) vs Khalid Taha $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00

Curtis Millender (+120) vs Belal Muhammad $400.00 for $480.00= -$400.00
Curtis Millender (+120) vs Belal Muhammad $400.00 for $480.00= -$400.00
Curtis Millender wins in round 2 (+1200) $20.00 for $240.00= -$20.00
Curtis Millender/Belal Muhammad Over 2½ (-174) $174.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Curtis Millender/Belal Muhammad Over 2½ (-187) $187.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Curtis Millender wins by 3 round decision (+400) $100.00 for $400.00= -$100.00
Belal Muhammad wins by 3 round decision (+147) $100.00 for $147.00= $147.00

Montel Jackson/Andre Soukhamthath Over 2½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Poliana Botelho (-148) vs Lauren Mueller $296.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Poliana Botelho wins in round 2 (+650) $15.00 for $97.50= -$15.00
Poliana Botelho wins in round 3 (+1150) $15.00 for $172.50= -$15.00
Poliana Botelho wins by 3 round decision (+200) $50.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Brandon Davis (-147) vs Randy Costa $588.24 for $400.00= $400.00
Randy Costa to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+275) $75.00 for $206.25= -$75.00
Randy Costa wins in round 1 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00
-----

Total Profit= $1,831.42

 

[Naterade]

I pray to god Conor fights Dustin next @ 155, ill put the house, barn, and life on it anything under -225

 

[2bet]

Made a couple of small bets last week already, and will stick to those:

1u Poirier 3,47 (to close a parlay)
1u OSP 1,83
1u Adesanya 1,58
1u Griffin 1,87
1u Jouban 1,91
1u Davis 1,66
1u Anders 1,53

If Poirier loses I will need to win like 5 of the other 6 bets to come up even, so you better not tail me on this lol

GL all

+1,58u
It came down to Poirier, which I was aware of.

I went 7 out of 13 on predictions which was my lowest for this year for now.
Betting on Anders was definitly my low point of this event.

Thank you Dustin P. for keepin me in the green!!

 

[Vir_Ars]

I love when this happen, such a shame that i dont go bigger.

 

[Jordan3399]

Adding your bets up, that's -8 units, not 0.7.

It truely is a wonder why he has you on his ignore list.

 

[TheKingOwl]

Anders made me very angry. Even more now that I've been in fight metrics (which is now called ufc stats) see the stats. I ended up losing a lot of live betting and it was not worse because I did not bet so much on Holloway in the third round.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Adding your bets up, that's -8 units, not 0.7.

My buddy Paul!

As I said, I didn’t bother adding it up so thanks for spending your precious, fleeting time on this Earth doing it for me. You’re a pretty neat guy Paul!

Ok, back to the old ignore list for you.